Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[SimeonNC]

To repeat what Fro said, I think it's very telling that the most batshit insane, absolutely worst case scenario for winter weather UKie still had a winter storm for a lot of NC.

This is the potential we're working with.

 

[SimeonNC]

No change of note with the new kid on the block.
View attachment 186759

The AI-GFS is clearly trending colder on the surface too.

I don't trust these AI model really but glad to see it agreeing with the GFS/GEFS and ICON

 

[egg]

starting to get nervous here along the I-85 corridor between clt and greenville. trends tonight scream major ice storm imo. hearing people share their stories from the 2014 event down in sc and ga have made me really realize what a major ice storm can be. i’m only 17 and ive never been through an actual ZR dominant ice storm but it sounds terrible.

 

[Ross]

AIFS following suite, a nudge east with the baja low and some more interaction w the trough pumping up heights out east. going to see another nudge north here

 

[beanskip]

0z Euro AI not going to get it done for snow in I85 corridor. 850s way too warm — significantly warmer than 12z run.

 

[wxdaniel]

starting to get nervous here along the I-85 corridor between clt and greenville. trends tonight scream major ice storm imo. hearing people share their stories from the 2014 event down in sc and ga have made me really realize what a major ice storm can be. i’m only 17 and ive never been through an actual ZR dominant ice storm but it sounds terrible.

This looks more like the 2004 Ice Strom in those areas. I was 12 years old myself and remember that very well. No power in Laurens for over a week no school. The week after that storm was spring break. Glad I had two weeks off from school. But that was around 1.25 of freezing rains, sleet, and snow. This is upwards of 2in with snow, and sleet. So... make a plan. (Sorry if Banter but I work 3rd shift and its almost 1AM.

 

[Webberweather53]

0z Euro going to be more amped

 

[griteater]

Maybe someone with a little more experience can answer this but how does a H5 1037 not send mid-levels 500+ 700mb in CAD areas below freezing?

So the surface high to the north is bringing in cold winds out of the N & NE down east of the Apps. But in the mid levels here at 850mb (roughly 5,000 ft aloft), winds are out of the south with the low at this level over western TN. That's a classic, overrunning, warm advection look in the mid-levels. That warm advection in the mid-levels creates lift in the atmosphere for precip generation. Warm advection warms said mid-levels of the atmosphere, but the amount of warming is cut roughly in half due to the fact that the lift / rising motion caused by the warm advection is a cooling agent in the air column. Rising motion cools the air column. Descending motion warms the air column. In an overrunning setup like this, it's imperative to have an abundance of cold air in place in the mid-levels to "hold off" the warming that occurs due to the warm advection that is helping to generate precip.

 

[jrips27]

Not good here

 

[NorthDFWwx]

That 00z UKMET run is something else.

And yet, still not totally impossible if the phasing trend continues with more RECON data coming in.

Would be one of the biggest busts this century...

 

[jrips27]

Sigh

 

[bouncycorn]

Its gonna look like UKMET

 

[Packsox03]

So in 24 hours we’ve gone from a near certainty of big snow/ice to a cutter being a real possibility…nice. Even the MA should start to worry

 

[WxBlue]

 

[NBAcentel]

I highly doubt it’s gonna be as warm as the UK lol but it’s gonna be a worst run then 18z

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

lol

 

[NBAcentel]

Wait this run might actually be as warm as the UK bouncy wasn’t lying

 

[Flo]

lolView attachment 186768

There needs to be an investigation into how bad these models missed.

 

[griteater]

The shortwave trend from Minnesota to Wyoming is the dagger on the Euro. It’s bad in every way

 

[NBAcentel]

The shortwave trend from Minnesota to Wyoming is the dagger on the Euro. It’s bad in every way

View attachment 186769

I hate to say it, but this might not quit… that shortwave in Canada wants to head to the weakness out west

 

[griteater]

Flaw or legit?

Looking real

 

[Ross]

Flaw or legit?

gotta respect 8 straight runs of action

 

[jrips27]

KATL doesn’t get below 32 on the Euro during the main precip lol

 

[HailCore]

Cold rain manages to find its way into south central KY and eventually WV on this run... utterly ridiculous

 

[Stormsfury]

The shortwave trend from Minnesota to Wyoming is the dagger on the Euro. It’s bad in every way

View attachment 186769

Looks like that piece literally detaches from the TPV over Canada and splits west. When did the EURO decide to hang back the wrong piece of energy? This is the craziest thing Ive ever seen from both the UKMET AND EURO.

 

[blueheronNC]

KATL doesn’t get below 32 on the Euro during the main precip lol

and KATL hits 63 on Sunday afternoon

 

[Tarheel1]

Wait this run might actually be as warm as the UK bouncy wasn’t lying

New data, models going North

 

[Flo]

How do Mets explain this? lol I would hate to have to make that video first thing in the morning.

 

[jrips27]

and KATL hits 63 on Sunday afternoon

I cry

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

A foot plus from DC to Altoona. 2+’ near Snowshoe

Shambles. Gnight

 

[Stormsfury]

How do Mets explain this? lol I would hate to have to make that video first thing in the morning.

This is a literal nightmare. Its literally the version of forecast confidence has hit an all time low, especially when you have a 40° temp spread in the battleground regions. Well, it could be 25° or 65°.

 

[Packsox03]

A foot plus from DC to Altoona. 2+’ near Snowshoe

Shambles. Gnight View attachment 186770

Trending towards DC/Balt slop fest and it’s an interior NE snow event lmfao

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

ILL WAKE UP AND THIS WILL ALL BE BETTER

 

[JalenW25]

How do Mets explain this? lol I would hate to have to make that video first thing in the morning.

Idk how in the world one can even begin to explain this to the viewing audience I'm with u to have to make a video first thing in the morning on this jeeezzz louise

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

 

[blueheronNC]

00z EURO KRDU snow total: 0.0

 

[JP152]

Trending towards DC/Balt slop fest and it’s an interior NE snow event lmfao

Yep. Probably over a foot before the changeover though.

 

[Forevertothee]

Is there any freezing rain for areas of Sc into NC?

 

[Flo]

Is there any freezing rain for areas of Sc into NC?

Nope you’re safe

 

[malak05]

Either the models are really jacked up right now or the models were really jacked up 35 hours ago either way it's horrible for confidence and tracking these are in the mid-short range approaching

It legitimately shouldn't be really logical to go from 20 degrees to flipping 65-70 I'm 24 hours of Models runs

 

[Packsox03]

Yep. Probably over a foot before the changeover though.View attachment 186774

I mean this thing keeps on trending north…quick. By 12z you might be able to divide those totals by 4. That area has been totally skunked since 2016. Every storm last year missed them to the south and they’ve had so many misses to the north in that timeframe it’s hard to count