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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I swear this is the last time I post the Canadian wedge. Waynesboro GA went from 32 and ZR to 63 and rain in one run..it’s just trying to remember where the wedge is supposed to be bc it’s been so long View attachment 186738
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It has a full-on Apps runner before transferring near Hatteres. I suppose with the first high way up in Canada on the run, that's possible.
 
NWS CAE
7pm
Key Message 2: Guidance continues to trend towards a
significant winter storm across the forecast area this weekend.

There continues to be signal a significant winter storm this
weekend. Confidence is increasing in widespread, impactful
snow/sleet/freezing rain accumulations across the forecast area,
with a long duration winter storm possible.

From a synoptic standpoint, the signal for a significant winter
storm this weekend is very robust. A strong, +3 standard deviations
above normal surface high is forecast to invade the northern Plains
and OH Valley on Friday, anchored by a strong upper-level jet stream
and subsidence associated with convergence therein. As this occurs,
a branch of the southern stream of the jet stream is forecast to
amplify as a Baja Low deepens and slowly moves eastward. As the
surface high pressure continues to shift eastward Saturday and
Sunday, classic cold air damming is forecast to setup across the
Carolinas and into Georgia, anchored by the upper level jet streak
core to our north. The intensifying right entrance region of the
then phased northern/southern stream jets is then forecast to shift
east-northeastward, overspreading the southeastern CONUS with what
90-95th percentile integrated vapor transport values (IVT). This
combination of an "atmospheric river" streaming atop the cold air
damming is a unique, impressive setup for significant winter weather
in this part of the country.

12z guidance is continuing the trend from the overnight
guidance in strengthening the arctic high pressure system
shifting into the northern Plains and Ohio Valley later this
week, yielding a robust cold airmass across the forecast area
this weekend. The upper level pattern remains fairly similar,
with some slight delay in the ejection of the upper level trough
across the southwestern US (guidance tends to eject these
features a bit too fast in the longer range so this trend makes
some sense). This is a trend seen amongst physics based models
and their ensembles in addition to the AI guidance, increasing
confidence in wintry precipitation. Additionally, with guidance
continuing to show a robust and anomalous IVT signal, guidance
has continued to trend a bit wetter than it was even 24 hours
ago. As such, significant totals of snow/sleet/freezing rain are
all possible at this stage. There is tremendous uncertainty
regarding where all of these precipitation types set up and how
much actually falls of each. Regardless of that, concern is
increasing that this winter storm could be significant and
impactful across the entire forecast area. The primary timeframe
looks it could run from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning, with multiple rounds of heavy precipitation possible in
this time span. Please continue to stay abreast of the latest
forecast information over the coming days and begin to review
your winter weather preparedness plan.


NWS GSP
6:38pm

3. A potential winter storm system may impact the area this
weekend but details regarding precipitation amounts and type
remain uncertain. Confidence continues to increase that moderate
overall winter storm impacts could lead to hazardous travel and
power outages.
4. Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night into
Tuesday morning which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken. Snowpack may linger through early
next week due to cold temperatures, which may keep travel issues
and power outages around.
Key message 3: A potential winter storm system may impact the area
this weekend but details regarding precipitation amounts and type
remain uncertain. Confidence continues to increase that moderate
overall winter storm impacts could lead to hazardous travel and
power outages.

Focus turns to the potential winter storm this weekend and per usual
this is shaping up to be a messy forecast in regards to p-types
(this is the South after all). Timing appears to be late Friday
night into late Sunday night for now, although this is subject to
change. Majority of model guidance is on board with a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain. However, p-types will be highly
dependent on the timing of precip. If precip arrives later when the
cold air is in place, we could end up with mainly snow and sleet. If
the precip arrives prior to the cold air, then we will get a mix of
freezing rain, snow, and sleet. The 06Z GFS depicts less ice and
more sleet while the 06Z ECMWF depicts more ice and less sleet. The
12Z GFS is showing precip coming in slower compared to the 06Z
(after the cold air is already in place) and now shows mainly snow
and sleet. For now it appears that we have a high chance for warning
criteria snow, sleet and/or ice over the weekend. NBM shows the
probability of greater than 4" of snow/sleet ranging from ~20% to
50% across the South Carolina Upstate and northeast Georgia to ~50%
to 80% across most of western North Carolina. NBM also shows the
probability of greater than 0.25" of ice accumulation ranging from
~20% to 40% along and north of I-40 to ~40% to 60% south of I-40.
All this to say, confidence on p-types remains low but confidence of
getting warning criteria snow/sleet and/or ice accumulations is
increasing. Regardless of exact p-types and amounts, confidence
continues to increase that this system could lead to hazardous
travel and power outages. Make sure to stay up to date with latest
forecast information in the coming days as this is an evolving
system. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal
through much of the weekend.


Key message 4: Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night
into Tuesday morning which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken. Snowpack may linger through early next
week due to cold temperatures, which may keep travel issues and
power outages around.
 
Stormsfury said:
Glad you mentioned President's Day 1979 as it was on my mind earlier. In North Charleston, had a LOT of ICE with that and the temp was in the upper teens. That HIGH was 1050mb over NE Canada! This GFS run has 1043mb further south in NY than the 79 storm. There were huge sleet and snow totals in the Carolinas if my memory serves correctly.
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It was snowing in Greensboro in that one with a midday temperature of 8 degrees
 
NBAcentel said:
Absolute sleet bomb, I’ll gladly take View attachment 186710
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The map above this says I'll have an inch and a half of zr and this gives me 2 of sleet. I wish I was fit to take on the big state road hill. If that verified it would be perfect. This is going to be an interesting ride. This is sled for a week good. Well, that's too much zr. Imagine praying for the zr to stop and it goes on for two days. And the limbs are falling and the sleet is falling and one is thrilled and terrified at the same time. The poor Canadians had weeks of zr not too many years back.
 
the ukie has severe storms in alabama and nc still gets frozen precip lol. nc is definitely locked into some kind of winter storm whether that be ice or maybe something better.
 
bouncycorn said:
I'll say this -- something about the UKMET makes it make really weird runs sometimes.

It is generally a good model, but when it is off on its own, usually it is FAR off.

I have seen a few times, however, when UKMET is on its own and actually beats the other models.
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The Canadian ain't too far behind!
 
bouncycorn said:
I'll say this -- something about the UKMET makes it make really weird runs sometimes.

It is generally a good model, but when it is off on its own, usually it is FAR off.

I have seen a few times, however, when UKMET is on its own and actually beats the other models.
Click to expand...
Generally when it wins, it actually does something physically possible. That's an all time crazy depiction I just saw from that model tonight.
 
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