iGRXY
Member
0.5” of ice accrual in the upstate would be likely on this euro run.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Packsox03
Member
We still get 10" in the triangle for a run that amped? Very solid. Hoping we can get a little bump south to increase our margin for error
billyweather
Member
I tend to lean towards a snowier result north of 85 based on history. Models never seem to capture how stubborn the atmosphere can be along and north of 85.
A bit of a warning shot, or way to wiggle out of the worse case scenario in North Central Ga., depending on your love or hatred of ice. The wedge is slower to punch into Atlanta/Athens than the past few runs. A nod towards the UKMET/GEM.
After further review, much of this minor difference appears to be because the precip is slightly delayed. Let's roll.
After further review, much of this minor difference appears to be because the precip is slightly delayed. Let's roll.
NWG_WX14
Member
That run would be devastating storm for the triangle. 10” of snow and then copious amounts of IP and FZR
How is it more amped with the delay in phasing? Early tilt, which seems off to me?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Front end thump looks freaking insane for many in NC
how much front end snow for the upstate would that have been? Or is it all sleet and freezing rain?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
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The baja low still ending up phasing with the northern stream energy. Although IF there are more delays in the baja lows movement then you gotta think phasing may be harder to come by.
Packsox03
Member
As mentioned by a previous poster, the s/w over the Northern Plains digs a bit more west. This makes the heights over the E CONUS higher. 540 line over PA moved north about 30 miles or so.
Also, it's pretty unlikely we see 100% snow. To get the good stuff, you need to risk mixing in most cases. At minimum, I think we get a great thump (>6") before heavy IP and some ZR
NCSNOW
Member
At this point this is all snow above hwy 64 in NC. and its ripping.
we all flip to ice after this point on the euro in nc ( sleet) and pick up another .6 qpf as sleet with temp upper teens here.
Total qpf for storm is
we all flip to ice after this point on the euro in nc ( sleet) and pick up another .6 qpf as sleet with temp upper teens here.
Total qpf for storm is
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The front end thump of snow usually extends further south in these big boy cads too
12z AIFS-Ens is quite a bit warmer at the surface, leaves much of NGA with a cold rain, at least at the end.
What's your take so far Webb on amplification and location of miller-B transfer based on all the copious modeling afoot?
ducketta27
Member
[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] sighting!
Does this thing tick NW… or SE with time?
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Does this thing tick NW… or SE with time?
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baroowoofr
Member
Looks like we have some sounding flights planned:
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
hmmm
I mostly lurk and enjoy following the board. Probably a banter post … I am rooting for sleet & snow for obvious reasons. However, there is one member here who, based on his posts, loves sleet. I am hopeful that @dsaur gets that sleet storm he is always hoping for!
With that said, with a deeper cold feed I am guessing the warm air must ride higher up? If so, then maybe more snow/sleet than ZR. I can at least hope. Either way … good luck @dsaur! May the sleet be deep!
With that said, with a deeper cold feed I am guessing the warm air must ride higher up? If so, then maybe more snow/sleet than ZR. I can at least hope. Either way … good luck @dsaur! May the sleet be deep!
NCSNOW
Member
Triad / hwy 64 north has picked up up 1.2 qpf by this frame on euro for reference. more back in SW NC as they also will have already flipped.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This front end thump is like a super charged version of Feb 2014. Way more cold air and way more precip
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it could at the last minute maybe. There’s a risk this one doesn’t do that because of how monstrous the high is that’s backing up the Arctic front. A lot of times these just bully everything in front of them and shift the baroclinic zone south some. Definitely afraid of that over Texas and Oklahoma more than anywhere
If you all remember, last year during the great gulf coast blizzard we WANTED the Baja cutoff interaction and it showed it for days and days but in the end no matter how far that kicker out of the NW dug and tried to kiss it, it couldn’t do it. There may be some big time model bias back that way and even in the high likelihood that these two features do interact, we could continue to see that cutoff tick west before doing so.
Packsox03
Member
I don't think we escape without a historic storm, whichever way this goes. ECMWF's precip algorithm is also off. Pretty much all of our ZR is IP. Sounding attached below. It does get a little warmer at that 700-850 mb range the next couple frames but as that coastal gets going, it will wrap around cold air from the N and W
Attachments
Forevertothee
Member
I can't wait to see your first call map that captures this line of thinking, especially for the Upstate just south of 85. That is only hope of seeing snow, I guess. I have told many to prepare for a damaging ice storm. Praying for sleet to keep the power.
Packsox03
Member
I remember that storm up in Baltimore. We got nearly 20" and dryslotted when we lost the thermals
wow
Member
We're still going to see some back and forth as the baja low interaction get's figured out. Small differences can mean a 100 mi jump on the snow/ice/zr lines.
Gary M
Member
Lurker here: I’m seeing lots of snow and lots of ice in central NC but in what order does it appear we’ll get them?
Implies the CAD has reached its maximum extent on the EURO AI, which has been trending toward the legacy operations
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mydoortotheworld
Member
That's what I'm thinking too, wonder if this hints at what the physical euro will show
tractor girl
Member
It will be very interesting to see how this ultimately verifies, and whether AI was given enough training data to even begin to project this accurately
Which means the UKMet may not have been all yhat off
The models usually struggle with the magnitude of the cold air at the surface until pretty close to the event. They don't have it right yet.
Or AI has ingested well enough to harness it's realistic press now.
Brandon10
Member
Good lord: the model variability for NC is wild.
ICON: ICE ICE BABY
GFS: Full on Blizzard
CMC: ICE and More Ice have some rain to.
AI GFS: Snow Snow and more snow
ECMWF: Warmer and way less snow than the 6z
ECMWF Ensembles: All of it
EC AI: Snow, Ice
UKMET: Dont get me started.
While it is still 3-4 days out, the amount of cold, amount of baja interacting, and amping is a headache for specific precip types. Like throwing a dart.....dont forget the Ensembles are means....some show very little snow and some show shoveling for days. I do not envy forecasters in the south.
ICON: ICE ICE BABY
GFS: Full on Blizzard
CMC: ICE and More Ice have some rain to.
AI GFS: Snow Snow and more snow
ECMWF: Warmer and way less snow than the 6z
ECMWF Ensembles: All of it
EC AI: Snow, Ice
UKMET: Dont get me started.
While it is still 3-4 days out, the amount of cold, amount of baja interacting, and amping is a headache for specific precip types. Like throwing a dart.....dont forget the Ensembles are means....some show very little snow and some show shoveling for days. I do not envy forecasters in the south.
ducketta27
Member
Thoughts from you [mention]Rain Cold [/mention] , plus the Mets here [mention]bouncycorn [/mention] [mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] [mention]jackendrickwx [/mention] and others here….
Often, we say the CAD is underestimated by these models… does that mean cold air at the surface usually trends COLDER than modeled with time? ie… when we get into CAM range?
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Stormsfury
Member
tractor girl
Member
It handles surface thermals decently