Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[CaryWx]

Seems this all about where the LP xfers off the coast. Of course I know that means how much predecessor amplification occurs.

 

[Storm5]

GEFS isn't very supportive of the 12z gfs op run . Looks more like previous gefs runs

 

[iGRXY]

Euro is slowing down the ULL too but we are broadening and strengthening the N/S so this will likely be colder. Maybe even quite a bit colder

 

[jackendrickwx]

We want it to slow down some but not completely get left behind right?

If you wanted to play everything perfectly like the GFS, yes. But I don't think that solution is happening. Somewhere in between current euro/euro AI/GFS feels the most truthy right now to me

 

[CaryWx]

We want it to slow down some but not completely get left behind right?

Just a longer chain on 'the hook' if you will.

 

[iGRXY]

This is likely going to be a snowier run just looking at the N/S being stronger also

 

[Goose88]

I just watched alive by Wes Wyatt here in Birmingham he showed 8 graph with like 8 inches of snow here in Birmingham along with the freezing rain

 

[iGRXY]

Insane to see this strength of a high pressure under 100 hours

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Guidance from NWS GSP

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro looks to have jumped warmer aloft, this will be another icy run

 

[NCSNOW]

we got 4 contours on baja now. had 3 at 0z. position about same

 

[iGRXY]

This run has big boom potential. The ULL is slower but because we’ve broadened the N/S there’s more interaction but lower heights over the east

 

[MSnowAtl]

Euro looks to have jumped warmer aloft, this will be another icy run

Even with the colder push?

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 186381This run has big boom potential. The ULL is slower but because we’ve broadened the N/S there’s more interaction but lower heights over the east

TPV over the Great Lakes too


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

starting to believe the escape hatch is no longer an option. Incoming

 

[jackendrickwx]

Even with the colder push?

Digging that feature in the NW pushes heights up in the east. Watch the greens go further SW in Montana and the yellows go further north in Pennsylvania:

 

[wow]

850 line jumped up some.

 

[iGRXY]

Yep it’s more amped even with the TPV getting pulled closer to the GL

 

[weather bubba]

This run is just getting going but it looks to be more ice for many of us.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Would you have rather have a qpf bomb with a wintry mix or decent qpf and all snow? That’s the big question of the hour. You have the GFS vs the world.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

40+ hour winter storm there..

 

[jackendrickwx]

Front end snow turns to ice for many in NC. All ice ATL/CAE/BHM. EPS FRAM mean is gonna be scary at 12z

 

[NCSNOW]

Front end snow turns to ice for many in NC. All ice ATL/CAE/BHM. EPS FRAM mean is gonna be scary at 12z

Thanks in advance, can you show all 3 when completed. Sure majority of my ice is gonna be sleet.

 

[LithiaWx]

Ice makes this a no go for chasing boo... coming from down south it's going to be batten down the hatches in North ATL Saturday night. IF 26 and rain come together its going to be a icy sleet, zr disaster.

 

[LittleMountain]

Was the high weaker on the Euro or just flooded with warm air above?

 

[KyloG]

Euro more or less the same as prior runs...

 

[MSnowAtl]

Was the high weaker on the Euro or just flooded with warm air above?

More WAA from more interaction with Baja Low and a more broader northern stream.

 

[griteater]

Classic, cold, Miller A/B Hybrid on the Euro with surface low sneaking into SE Bama

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Baja wave… to come or not to come..this may have a long ways to go boys. Some say yes, some say no..but it can wobble any which way it pleases as it’s cutoff from the stream til the kicker picks it up..I’m not even sure what’s influencing it up until that point and I’m not sure the models do either

 

[jeremyt]

Euro more or less the same as prior runs...

View attachment 186386View attachment 186387

Agreed just 3-6 hours slower with the phasing.

 

[NCSNOW]

Whats 18-21 inches among friends. Sure its sleet polluted. But feeling good with euro op/ aifs and gfs op. All not fastballing the Baja NE

 

[MSnowAtl]

Agreed just 3-6 hours slower with the phasing.

This might be a trend for Euro in future runs! Euro, I think is still more amped. I think it will come down more in future rooms I hope!

 

[bouncycorn]

12z europe

 

[DustinWx]

12z europeView attachment 186392

Thing of absolute utter beauty.

Banter I know. But this is what I dream
Of

 

[NCSNOW]

Baja wave… to come or not to come..this may have a long ways to go boys. Some say yes, some say no..but it can wobble any which way it pleases as it’s cutoff from the stream til the kicker picks it up..I’m not even sure what’s influencing it up until that point and I’m not sure the models do either

Notice on the favorable runs the surface low tracks south Alabama, obviously the bad runs it treks north Alabama. Obviously all tied to how fast the baja ejection occurs.

 

[iGRXY]

The euro would be a lot of sleet for the upstate but it does eventually flip to ZR and drops at least 0.5” to 0.75” of accrual. The 850’s flip to warm and we will get a real accrual.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro more or less the same as prior runs...

View attachment 186386View attachment 186387

Those maps are misleading, I learned

 

[CaryWx]

This might be a trend for Euro in future runs! Euro, I think is still more amped. I think it will come down more in future rooms I hope!

I think better reality will come down to the system getting on shore tomorrow night and data ingest from there.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Synoptically this is just absurd. You have a trough going neutral/negative tilt in Mexico!!!

 

[Forevertothee]

The euro would be a lot of sleet for the upstate but it does eventually flip to ZR and drops at least 0.5” to 0.75” of accrual. The 850’s flip to warm and we will get a real accrual.

Which would be worst case for both roads and trees/powerlines.