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Misc General Banter Thread

I fully expect an even further expansion of the snow footprint to the south to include a lot of north AL/GA. With each run, the upper levels are cooling....indicative that models are getting a better handle on the strength/orientation of our HP's to the north. I think I-20 (and north) through AL/GA will end up with an extreme mixed bag of sleet and snow. Watch for continued southern trends with 925/850mb temps today...
 
jackendrickwx said:
This lead up has produced dozens of the craziest maps I have ever seen locally

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It's interesting to see the +- 10 degree difference between the modeled snow cover lolipops in Georgia and SC and the just ice-covered areas. I don't think the model is properly handling the albedo of heavy ice and sleet accumulations relative to snow cover.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It's interesting to see the +- 10 degree difference between the modeled snow cover lolipops in Georgia and SC and the just ice-covered areas. I don't think the model is properly handling the albedo of heavy ice and sleet accumulations relative to snow cover.
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If you get a rad cooling night right after this event you can go absolutely lunar and absolutely have some really strange spreads of temps.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Sure, for anyone who is hugging the CMC UKMET combo. For now, I hate them and won't even look, lol.
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I was being a bit facetious. If our serious board here in this forum were hugging those two models because it reflected the opposite but the rest were in the midwest camp we'd even be redflagging (second guessing) ourselves about such bias.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Social media platform of a business trying to drum up business
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Honest question here. So they are going with the pop density centers because that is where the $$ are or is it because they are based out of Indiana and have a local bias? Otherwise I have to believe they are just betting on climo or trolling for hits
 
I have 0 positive feelings about this one based on the last 18 hours. Icon at 18z was the right trend not just about everything else that's happened since. The setup is quite ripe for boiling mid levels, nw trend and hurt feelings. Hope I'm wrong but ill be on the sideline for a few days unless something changes. One day folks will realize at most of our latitudes phasing and amplification aren't our friends unless you really think that unicorns like Jan 00 and 93 are realistic options
 
Bigedd09 said:
Wish that NAM run could’ve gone longer


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I thought the same. On the other hand, we don't need to see beyond what the model had at 84. If true at 84, there is zero doubt that extrapolated would be positively historic.
 
SD said:
I have 0 positive feelings about this one based on the last 18 hours. Icon at 18z was the right trend not just about everything else that's happened since. The setup is quite ripe for boiling mid levels, nw trend and hurt feelings. Hope I'm wrong but ill be on the sideline for a few days unless something changes. One day folks will realize at most of our latitudes phasing and amplification aren't our friends unless you really think that unicorns like Jan 00 and 93 are realistic options
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See, that's why you NC guys need to open up your hearts to all winter precip types. As long as I don't utterly fail here with mostly rain, I'll be ecstatic even if I have to use all 50 gallons of gas in my trucks to run the generator.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
See, that's why you NC guys need to open up your hearts to all winter precip types. As long as I don't utterly fail here with mostly rain, I'll be ecstatic even if I have to use all 50 gallons of gas in my trucks to run the generator.
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I've done enough ice storms in my life, I'm good
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I thought the same. On the other hand, we don't need to see beyond what the model had at 84. If true at 84, there is zero doubt that extrapolated would be positively historic.
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We’re gonna have a new definition for what a NAM’ing really looks like when it gets in range.
 
best case but still realistic case scenario for CAE.

Front end thump of snow (maybe an inch or two)
Tons of sleet
Ending as freezing rain but not crippling

I know everyone is focused on upper SC & NC but we got one hell of an issue down here in the Midlands.

Likely scenario

A lot of sleet & freezing rain
 
OK, to flip from weather nerd to water operator.

Heads up. Water systems have two days static supply of water *at most*. This assumes no leaks, which will be a problem as power fails and customer houses cool. Then if the plant/wells are not connected to natural gas, you can add another day or so of propane to run pumps.

Do not forget to fill bathtubs up for normal uses and sources of drinking water in advance!
 
And generators too @ Uline
07F1WEY.jpeg
 
SD said:
I have 0 positive feelings about this one based on the last 18 hours. Icon at 18z was the right trend not just about everything else that's happened since. The setup is quite ripe for boiling mid levels, nw trend and hurt feelings. Hope I'm wrong but ill be on the sideline for a few days unless something changes. One day folks will realize at most of our latitudes phasing and amplification aren't our friends unless you really think that unicorns like Jan 00 and 93 are realistic options
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That’s called being realistic. I think those of us who have been doing this a while, especially south of I-85, have that gut feeling that the snow is going to be more confined to the north. Heck, that gut feeling kept me awake last night thinking about buying a generator and eventually caving to it, even though the Euro and GFS both show my area getting more sleet than anything else.

I will say though, the AI models throw a new wrench in this equation that we’ve never had with forecasting these types of setups. The fact they’re still ticking south a bit lends some credence to the ideas the Euro and GFS are throwing out currently. Going to be fascinating to see which way this ends up going.
 
rburrel2 said:
I don’t like hyping winter storms to friends. I track this stuff bc I personally enjoy it. But I’ve been singing from the rafters on this one. It’s a cant miss in the upstate
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Same. My daughter lives nearby, off a winding, hilly road that is perpetually in the shade from many large trees with overhead utilities.
 
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