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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

We need colder 850s or it’s lights out.
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iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
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Now, the trend is in the right direciton in terms of the CAD. But we definitely need to continue to trend to fix that warm nose for sure.
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This is obscene. I mean, if you get a 1040 biblical CAD like is being shown and then amp a system like this you just will not avoid a massive ice storm for someone
 
Some of these model prints are getting ridiculous now and I mean that as a value add comment.

If some of this stuff actually comes to fruition...
 
xshare said:
So this thread is just the Sunday storm and not the possible Wednesday one?
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Wednesday one has trended very weak, unless it picks back up again in strength I don't think we need a thread for it
 
The warm nose is barely there for the 85 north to Highway 11 crew. My guess would be under strong returns you snow and in lulls it switches over. Even then it’s so thin you may still be able to snow the entire event. As cold as the 925s are it’s sleet from 85 all the way down to i20. But along and south of there would be a catastrophic ice storm
 
That Euro map was a thing of beauty for folks near me who would get the snow and a scary sight for those under the ice accumulation totals.
It is hard to envision a more perfect setup for a major winter storm than the one just depicted on that model run.
 
iGRXY said:
The warm nose is barely there for the 85 north to Highway 11 crew. My guess would be under strong returns you snow and in lulls it switches over. Even then it’s so thin you may still be able to snow the entire event. As cold as the 925s are it’s sleet from 85 all the way down to i20. But along and south of there would be a catastrophic ice storm
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That’s what I was trying to say, I-85 seems to always be the border between different P-Types
 
NEGaweather said:
Hopefully modeled way over amped


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The problem is unlike those marginal 31/32 degree events...its well down into the mid 20s....so there would be major accretion without a lot of runoff. Throw in 25 to 30mph wind gusts and it's lights out for a long time for those unlucky to be in the freezing rain. I'm hopeful that with a wedge this stout sleet would be the primary precip type over north ga and the upstate at least. Of course this is still a long ways out but given the players involved and model agreement i don't feel as silly discussing such details.
 
Personally I don't see an amped solution like that taking place (and yes I know this solution dumps snow on me but I'm not buying it). This cold air dome dropping into the US is extremely cold and favors less of a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm and more of a southern to southeast hit in my opinion.
 
KyloG said:
SV counts sleet as snow but not freezing rain. And doesn’t have Kuchera
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Per WxBell precip type maps, that’s nearly all ZR at ATL and surrounding areas. The IP is in such a narrow area, which for this setup seems very unusual.
 
GSP is already using "winter mix possible at the least"

Heights begin to fall Saturday into Sunday as yet another short wave
dives south and moves across the area. A baroclinic zone, and a moist
low level easterly flow, sets up across the Southeast between high
pressure to the north and weak low pressure in the Gulf. This
combined with increasing isentropic lift and frontogenetical forcing
leads to precip developing across the area. The operational guidance
and most ensemble means are trending in this direction with temps
cold enough for at least a wintry mix across the area. That said,
the LREF mean and the NBM have little to no probability of even
Advisory level wintry precip. As usual in these types of situations,
confidence is very low given the model to model and run to run
inconsistency. Keep up with the latest forecasts as they are likely
to change going forward.
 
Just a truly beautiful look on the euro here.

All timer 1051mb surface high comes out of Canada with a ripping subtropical jet supplanted by the Pacific-Western Hemisphere (phase 8) MJO event.

This is probably one of the most favorable general looksI’ve ever seen for snow/ice in the south.

Something is very likely going to happen somewhere in the southern US. It’s just all a matter of details and we will cross that bridge when we get there.

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