• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Euro too flat 🤣

Big winter storms start with rule number 1, non-negotiable: You must have a high pressure in a favorable location of sufficient strength.

My friends, this non-lala land setup for a winter storm not seen since the days of black and white photgraphs is picture perfect. Now archive the images.

Oh, and don't screw it up!
 
Forevertothee said:
GSP is already using "winter mix possible at the least"

Heights begin to fall Saturday into Sunday as yet another short wave
dives south and moves across the area. A baroclinic zone, and a moist
low level easterly flow, sets up across the Southeast between high
pressure to the north and weak low pressure in the Gulf. This
combined with increasing isentropic lift and frontogenetical forcing
leads to precip developing across the area. The operational guidance
and most ensemble means are trending in this direction with temps
cold enough for at least a wintry mix across the area. That said,
the LREF mean and the NBM have little to no probability of even
Advisory level wintry precip. As usual in these types of situations,
confidence is very low given the model to model and run to run
inconsistency. Keep up with the latest forecasts as they are likely
to change going forward.
Click to expand...
When they are talking this many days out, there’s a reason
 
Is it just me, or has the storm(s) around the 24th-28 been subtly shifting further and further south with each model run on all the major modeling? It seems like in this kind of setup, with shallow cold being fed in from such a strong Arctic high to the north, my local area would at least see steady temperatures in the 30s for a couple days. I don't think I can rule out freezing rain or sleet either (snow would be nice, but this one's for y'all in the upper south, I'm just thankful I might be part of the action in some way).
 
Philstorm91 said:
Is it just me, or has the storm(s) around the 24th-28 been subtly shifting further and further south with each model run on all the major modeling? It seems like in this kind of setup, with shallow cold being fed in from such a strong Arctic high to the north, my local area would at least see steady temperatures in the 30s for a couple days. I don't think I can rule out freezing rain or sleet either (snow would be nice, but this one's for y'all in the upper south, I'm just thankful I might be part of the action in some way).
Click to expand...
Yes, the HP has been trending stronger. We've seen this a lot the last 2 years in this timeframe.
 
a86ffba6fbb262cea249f5ad43db7be8.jpg

Huge increase on AI EPS. This only through 168
 
CJ pulled the trigger and the people commenting aren’t taking it serious enough. Hard to blame them but I’ll be making sure my generator is running starting tomorrow. This one feels a bit different. They all have it. And I guess they can all lose it. We’ll worry about that later IMG_7674.jpeg
 
My worst fear, and it’s really not a fear more so it’s very likely to happen, is the ice potential here. Right now I feel okay for those of use along and north and west of 85 for likely all snow. South of that it’s probably a monster sleet and some ZR down to the i20 corridor. But alone and south of there has a very big potential more a biblical ice storm. Like Eve if you cut totals in half I’d still be over an 1” of ZR type of storm. This is a serious CAD and cold air layer.
 
Not the mama said:
Okay how many potential systems are we talking and what’s the time frame for each threat. There’s a lot going on here and I’m getting lost.
Click to expand...
I think the main focus should be on the period from the 25th through 26th after seeing that incredible Euro model run. This potential storm could be one for the record books if what the Euro was showing happens.
 
rburrel2 said:
Euro ai mean… Wtf…. This is only through hr 168!
Does anyone know if the mean includes snow/sleet or snow/sleet/freezing rain on these 10:1 maps?

View attachment 185132
Click to expand...

There’s something odd about the Euro AI WxBell clown maps because they keep showing snow over small pockets way out over the ocean/Gulf. The WxBell algos could be a problem. The Euro ens clowns are more normal looking.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top