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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
That's true. As someone that is in Atlanta, I have mostly been focusing on that northern edge which shifted SE quite a bit.. but yes, the main batch of moisture didn't move that much.
Wulfer
Member
Seen this dog and pony act before when Nashville got last years snow. Snow was expected in Atlanta, I thought Chatttown was in a good place. The models all shifted the precept shield even more south than before, only to later correct about 250 - 300 miles north. Yea, we still have 3 days before this event. I learned from last time to wait until 48hrs before rushing to a sled! I believe this is why Morristown put up they were watching for two scenario's before laying blood to print in their forecast!
Scenario's
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Again, I do not hate this look right here at this stage. Hell of a lot better then what that gefs/gfs wanted to do. Fat lady may be warming up but she’s not performing yet.
Last Jan we had a similar situation where models had no qpf even over Myrtle and Charlotte saw snow. Not saying clt is getting 1-3” but it’s silly to think models have a storm nailed 72hrs out and yet we do this every year.
HailCore
Member
21z RAP a tad further west with the initial precipitation near the gulf than the NAM at 00z Sunday. It will be quite interesting to see how the HRRR/RAP updates handle the system tomorrow morning. 
Yeah and obviously as others have mentioned we can usually expect to see precip more expansive to the north and west than what globals indicate.
tractor girl
Member
Will the recon flights be in the usual spot on TT?
Yep, the idea that globals or hires has precip shield figured out 72 hrs out is laughable. Last year we saw massive shifts w with qpf inside 18hrs!
Searching for a nugget here, and I do find this interesting.
The 18Z EMCF 500Mb presentation more closely resembles the 6Z GFS than the drier 18Z GFS presentation at the same time stamp. If that vorticity bundle on the backside extends as far SW as both the 18Z Euro and 6Z GFS show, I maintain hope for some close-in surprises with SW swinging through the South Saturday night and Sunday. The last panel is the 18Z gfs for comparison.
It was clear when the 18Z GFS was running that we were in trouble 36 hours in.
How far west, and the strength of that vorticity at the base of the trough when it begins the pivot, are key. The first panel is the renegade NAM look that I'd love to see verified at 48 hours.
The 18Z EMCF 500Mb presentation more closely resembles the 6Z GFS than the drier 18Z GFS presentation at the same time stamp. If that vorticity bundle on the backside extends as far SW as both the 18Z Euro and 6Z GFS show, I maintain hope for some close-in surprises with SW swinging through the South Saturday night and Sunday. The last panel is the 18Z gfs for comparison.
It was clear when the 18Z GFS was running that we were in trouble 36 hours in.
How far west, and the strength of that vorticity at the base of the trough when it begins the pivot, are key. The first panel is the renegade NAM look that I'd love to see verified at 48 hours.
It's on the way.
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Forget 18 hours, it was like 6-8 hours going from 1-2" to 6-8" down here.
packfan98
Moderator
Well, I’ve got a 10% chance of getting 3”. What could go wrong???
SREF trends
Tsappfrog20
Member
I have been away for a bit so sorry if this was already shared but the NWS RAL put out there official forecast.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
rburrel2
Member
6hr panels are a bit deceiving since it’s sped up timing. It’s east of the last run but still very wet and very west overall.
This is where I’d like all models to converge and look just Iike this leading up to 12z tomorrow for real
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
If it were
like times past , other than last year, it would wind up from jackson ms to gadsden line.Branch
Member
Maybe someone has posted but I’d be curious to know if the 2014 storm was still trending this far south with 2 days to go.
The 18Z Euro would be a dream come true for some S GA snow lovers with a max of 1.2” at Douglas (see below). I’m not betting on that much accumulating there but it would be exciting!
How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years:
2/10/1973: 3.0”
12/22-23/1989: 3.3”
2/13/2010: 1.5”
1/3/2018: ~3”
1/21-2/2025: 4.5”
How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years:
2/10/1973: 3.0”
12/22-23/1989: 3.3”
2/13/2010: 1.5”
1/3/2018: ~3”
1/21-2/2025: 4.5”
Anyone know what model(s) is showing amounts in Louisiana/Mississippi that are getting added and highlighted into the National Blend of Models? I’m surprised to see it so active in that area 
@bouncycorn could give more insight here but it's not as simple as a list of models blended. It's model data from globals, short range, raw model data, corrected biases, models we don't have access to... I believe it's a complicated process. NWS relies on it for guidance but with that said, have no clue what data is causing the higher amounts so far south
NBAcentel
Member
Go ahead and add the HRRR to the amp camp 
Mahomeless
Member
I still see this as being an extremely plausible, if not most likely, depiction of what we will see show up on the short range/hi-res models starting late tomorrow.
I'm a little surprised my area is currently projected to have these totals too, considering today's model trends from all the major models. I am very curious to see what HRRR shows for how the system develops near Louisiana starting tomorrow's runs. It did a pretty good job depicting last January's crush job for the our big snow in the lead up to the event, including the general precip shield and totals.
Bigedd09
Member
Typically the long range HRRR is pretty amped though right?
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