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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, like ground temps won't be an issue on a borderline event. GFS looks a little N
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Lol we just had a week straight where the impact areas for this system didn't get above 40 for over week. Ground temps wont be an issue

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NWMSGuy said:
Temps before the Major 94 Ice Storm around these parts was around 70.
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We had 60s for over a week straight before the snow in early December. All we we heard was ground temps will limit accumulation. That played out well....

Ground temp argument is so overplayed

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Storm5 said:
We had 60s for over a week straight before the snow in early December. All we we heard was ground temps will limit accumulation. That played out well....

Ground temp argument is so overplayed

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Well here in theTriad, the snow took a long time to stick in early December and never did stick much on the roads. That was more likely due to rates though than ground temps I suspect
 
As I mentioned last night looking at the 500mb level was to far E with the track of the LP and should be farther W and that is what we have seen on today's runs.

For those not in the wintry precip now vs what has been modeled last 24-48 hours what is needed s/w to close off (be stronger) and at the least go neutral to negative creating its own cold core and that puts the people further south in play...

All that said looks like W TN, N MS and maybe xtreme NW AL looking good... Nashville area I would be kinda concerned in regards to wintry precip and most of N AL. Yes could see some SN but I would not expect much unless like mentioned storm really deepens.

Edit I will try draw up an outlined area tonight when at home...i think most like to look at a map vs rambling on LoL

... Carry on


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JLL1973 said:
i knew it wasnt good being in the bullseye 3 days out. this system is headed I40 north
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Snow just to my north, already had snow just to our south, usually sums up winter here. Alway just to the the north or just to the south, that 15 inch bulls eye for both systems was just a cruel joke. Lol
 
DTMSzooVAAcR63i.jpg
 
Storm5 said:
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

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Absolutely. Everyone should have took that to the bank when I mentioned this threat a week ago. If I sniff it out, chances of snow in central AL plummet. I've got to be a pessimist to get snow here.
 
Euro is much quicker. In and out 6 hours tops frozen for extreme Northern Alabama

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Sounds like the GFS is about to coup a big time win, which is unreal, but then again, the Euro can be too phase happy.

The Euro still looks fine for North TN I feel but it's not that great anywhere else.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Sounds like the GFS is about to coup a big time win, which is unreal, but then again, the Euro can be too phase happy.

The Euro still looks fine for North TN I feel but it's not that great anywhere else.
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This isnt really phase related

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Storm5 said:
Some freezing rain verbatim this run

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Just seems odd that with cold air rushing in that it would be freezing rain in north ala like it shows. Not buying it, it will be a quick changeover to snow.
 
Stormlover said:
Just seems odd that with cold air rushing in that it would be freezing rain in north ala like it shows. Not buying it, it will be a quick changeover to snow.
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Surface temps crash but the warm nose at 850 could easily keep it as freezing rain or sleet

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Stormlover said:
Just seems odd that with cold air rushing in that it would be freezing rain in north ala like it shows. Not buying it, it will be a quick changeover to snow.
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If models are picking up on a warm nose now odds are it will become more prevalent as the event gets closer
 
Looks like Memphis still expecting accumulating snow in their Hazardous Weather update issued at 11:52 AM

There is a potential for accumulating snow across portions of the
Midsouth early Friday morning through late Friday night. Rain
will transition to sleet and freezing before changing to snow.
Uncertainty remains with respect to location and magnitude of
winter precipitation.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol what??? This was never an Alabama threat. This has always been areas to our NW and extreme Northern Alabama
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Lol what???

Just because it isn't my backyard doesn't mean I don't pull for AL to get snow. It looked like some of us were going to cash in....now it doesn't. What am I missing?
 
DadOfJax said:
Lol what???

Just because it isn't my backyard doesn't mean I don't pull for AL to get snow. It looked like some of us were going to cash in....now it doesn't. What am I missing?
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I guess the fact that northern Alabama is very much still in play

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