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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

hartselleweather said:
38ef20e86764f1f72bb75aeb5d6e3a2e.jpg



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Exactly. Only a 50/50 shot that even the extreme northern parts of the northern tier counties get more than an inch. Hardly an I-20 special.
 
DadOfJax said:
Exactly. Only a 50/50 shot that even the extreme northern parts of the northern tier counties get more than an inch. Hardly an I-20 special.
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Just saying this low has been trending southeast on every run. So it would only take another 50-75 Miles shift to also get the I-20 in a inch or two zone. We have 2 1/2 days for this to happen. This is a long ways away from being set in stone.
 
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hartselleweather said:
Not going to get in a negative pissing match with you. Just saying this low has been trending southeast on every run. So it would only take another 50-75 Miles shift to also get the I-20 in a inch or two zone. We have 2 1/2 days for this to happen. This is a long ways away from being set in stone. You can think what you want to think. But being negative about something isn’t going to get you nothing but a bunch more negative.
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How much change can we still see with the energy at this juncture? How often has there been significant changes with a system like this 48hr and under to go?
 
hartselleweather said:
Not going to get in a negative pissing match with you. Just saying this low has been trending southeast on every run. So it would only take another 50-75 Miles shift to also get the I-20 in a inch or two zone. We have 2 1/2 days for this to happen. This is a long ways away from being set in stone. You can think what you want to think. But being negative about something isn’t going to get you nothing but a bunch more negative.
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Not being negative, just stating facts as they stand today. Things can always change, but as of now, it's not looking good. Sorry that upsets you.
 
NWMSGuy said:
How much change can we still see with the energy at this juncture? How often has there been significant changes with a system like this 48hr and under to go?
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Well a lot of changes. Especially with upper level lows. (Weatherman Lows). We will probably have a good idea by Tomorrow Night 0Z runs. And a lot of help with short range models.
 
DadOfJax said:
Not being negative, just stating facts as they stand today. Things can always change, but as of now, it's not looking good. Sorry that upsets you.
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I meant to say also. I know how it feels to be so close to getting a snow but get nothing but a stupid cold rain. It sucks!!! Sorry didn’t mean to get ugly in earlier post.
 
DadOfJax said:
Trends aren't great for AL. Inch by inch, the snow keeps creeping north. May end up where only the northern counties get anything worth mentioning. Really thought we were going to end up with a good system for central AL, with a more SW to NE orientation of snow. Still time!
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Huntsville NWS now saying 1 to 3 inches and maybe more, much different than they sounded yesterday. Things are actually looking up here in the Tennessee Valley
 
Stormlover said:
Huntsville NWS now saying 1 to 3 inches and maybe more, much different than they sounded yesterday. Things are actually looking up here in the Tennessee Valley
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Just so it's clear, THEY aren't saying that. Their disco just points to the Euro and NAM solutions that are possible. I have yet to see them commit to any specific forecast, but yes, it definitely looks better along the immediate AL/TN border. Hoping for further south trends today that would bring heavier snow to the Huntsville area, and at least and inch or two down around Gadsden.
 
This nam run is a clear lean towards the gfs and a more progressive solution

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DadOfJax said:
Just so it's clear, THEY aren't saying that. Their disco just points to the Euro and NAM solutions that are possible. I have yet to see them commit to any specific forecast, but yes, it definitely looks better along the immediate AL/TN border. Hoping for further south trends today that would bring heavier snow to the Huntsville area, and at least and inch or two down around Gadsden.
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You want to disagree with everything I post, but the facts, word for word say this, and they DO say what I said, ;period: They aren't just saying a model said it, they say at this time that's how it looks.


At this time, it looks like heaviest amounts would be in Southern Middle
Tennessee and north of the Tennessee River, generally one to three
inches. If some other models are correct, including the NAM12, the
surface/upper low are much further south and will move northeast
slower through the overnight hours on Friday night. This could
produce heavier snowfall totals if this occurs.

James Spann also said this:
*Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible near the Tennessee border for cities like Muscle Shoals, Athens, and Huntsville. With temperatures falling into the 20s by late afternoon, this could bring some travel impact there.
 

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NAM says maybe a little snow for Waterloo then a few backend scattered flurries but that's about it for Alabama
 
My fiancé will be in Nashville this weekend. I told her she's going to get crushed
 
4E8F78E8-9A30-4303-A4AE-C284FB57C45A.jpeg Hey storm5, I think their might be a few people driving to the cliff after looking at one bad run of the nam. Lol
 
If you live in northern Mississippi and extreme Northern Alabama you better hope the 12z nam is not the start of a trend .

As Chris Pointed out H5 is ugly . Takes forever to close off and go negative. Also closes off much further north

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We definitely need to see this go negative tilt further west. Don't think we are currently going in the right direction. Onto the 18z.
 
Stormlover said:
You want to disagree with everything I post, but the facts, word for word say this, and they DO say what I said, ;period: They aren't just saying a model said it, they say at this time that's how it looks.


At this time, it looks like heaviest amounts would be in Southern Middle
Tennessee and north of the Tennessee River, generally one to three
inches. If some other models are correct, including the NAM12, the
surface/upper low are much further south and will move northeast
slower through the overnight hours on Friday night. This could
produce heavier snowfall totals if this occurs.
Click to expand...

Here is all of it....

Models seem a bit more uncertain this run whether a upper level
low and associated surface low will develop along the southern base
of the longwave trough axis associated with this strong cold front.
This is leading to differences concerning how long the precipitation
will linger along the western and northwestern edge of the surface
low late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Also, how quickly the
freezing temperatures and colder air aloft pushes across northern
Alabama.

NAM12 is the slowest moving the cold air in behind the
front, but still brings freezing temperatures and a change over to
snow/sleet by 3 or 4 pm into northwestern Alabama.

ECMWF and GFS are bit quicker moving this colder air in behind the front.

ECMWF seems to be the quickest, bringing mid to upper 20 degree temperatures into
northwest Alabama around noon and producing between 1 and 3 inches
of snow in northwestern Alabama. It then spreads this snowfall east
northeastwards Friday evening across the remainder of the area. At
this time, it looks like heaviest amounts would be in Southern Middle
Tennessee and north of the Tennessee River, generally one to three
inches.

If some other models are correct, including the NAM12, the
surface/upper low are much further south and will move northeast
slower through the overnight hours on Friday night. This could
produce heavier snowfall totals if this occurs.

When simply broken down, it is very evident that they are pointing to each models solution, not that they are agreeing with any of them specifically. Very smart move by the NWS, as we are already seeing the models trend the wrong way this morning.
 
DadOfJax said:
Here is all of it....

Models seem a bit more uncertain this run whether a upper level
low and associated surface low will develop along the southern base
of the longwave trough axis associated with this strong cold front.
This is leading to differences concerning how long the precipitation
will linger along the western and northwestern edge of the surface
low late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Also, how quickly the
freezing temperatures and colder air aloft pushes across northern
Alabama.

NAM12 is the slowest moving the cold air in behind the
front, but still brings freezing temperatures and a change over to
snow/sleet by 3 or 4 pm into northwestern Alabama.

ECMWF and GFS are bit quicker moving this colder air in behind the front.

ECMWF seems to be the quickest, bringing mid to upper 20 degree temperatures into
northwest Alabama around noon and producing between 1 and 3 inches
of snow in northwestern Alabama. It then spreads this snowfall east
northeastwards Friday evening across the remainder of the area. At
this time, it looks like heaviest amounts would be in Southern Middle
Tennessee and north of the Tennessee River, generally one to three
inches.

If some other models are correct, including the NAM12, the
surface/upper low are much further south and will move northeast
slower through the overnight hours on Friday night. This could
produce heavier snowfall totals if this occurs.

When simply broken down, it is very evident that they are pointing to each models solution, not that they are agreeing with any of them specifically. Very smart move by the NWS, as we are already seeing the models trend the wrong way this morning.
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my forecast at this time from them is 2.5 inches..argue with that.
 
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