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Misc General Banter Thread

I still believe in this one, to the bitter end! Especially since a cold rain and change over to a quick 1/2-1” would feel like winning the lottery after how the last few years have gone.
 
In about ready to call this one over for the western piedmont. Good luck to those in eastern nc. Euro suite is untouchable


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Rain Cold said:
6 pages overnight discussing the 0z GFS with is in the process of flatlining today. We need some real snow really bad.

Temps are just a killer.
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It’s the freaking precip. Heavy precip would rapidly cool the column and produce nice snow in the western Carolina’s . QPF has been our biggest issue for quite sometime


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@bouncycorn off hand, do you know the % of weight the GFS and GEFS has in the NBM suite vs other globals? I feel like the NBM really leans heavily into the american guidance first and foremost, then euro, cause you know.. america
 
Rain Cold said:
6 pages overnight discussing the 0z GFS with is in the process of flatlining today. We need some real snow really bad.

Temps are just a killer.
Click to expand...
I never in the least expected the GFS to be correct. I don't know how or why people get so excited about what that model shows. It is utter Garbage. It showed me 5 inches in one run. Two and a half, Next run, Now it's getting in line with the euro, With nothing back this way. I fully expect flurries at best at the moment. Unless the euro starts throwing precip, the far NW and I don't expect that. Did I mention I hate the GFS!
 
I’ll still pay attention to the short range models from here on out. I really don’t buy this east solution just yet. As Webb mentioned many times past day or so these type of storms normally start trending NW close to go time and there’s nothing that’s stopping it from doing that.
 
Why all the sudden negativity? Just from the perspective of tracking these storms over the years and not as a trained meteorologist, I would NOT want to be sitting right near the rain/snow line 2-3 days out like what’s been shown on the GFS recently. The precipitation shield is probably going to extend further NW than depicted like always, so seeing that shift to the southeast at this stage should be a welcome sight for I-85, not doom?
 
griteater said:
One thing annoying about the AI models is how they are only at 6hr increments. I believe that’s because they are partly based on reanalysis data which is in 6hr increments. Anyway, was wondering bouncy (or others) if there will be future efforts to upgrade to 3hr etc?
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Analysis data is available hourly (ERA5), so I’m sure we’ll have hourly-output AINWP models soon.

The current models output with a 6hour interval because 6-hour intervals score the highest with the current model architectures used.
 
Engeo said:
Why all the sudden negativity? Just from the perspective of tracking these storms over the years and not as a trained meteorologist, I would NOT want to be sitting right near the rain/snow line 2-3 days out like what’s been shown on the GFS recently. The precipitation shield is probably going to extend further NW than depicted like always, so seeing that shift to the southeast at this stage should be a welcome sight for I-85, not doom?
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Things don’t work like they used to. Doom.
 
Engeo said:
Why all the sudden negativity? Just from the perspective of tracking these storms over the years and not as a trained meteorologist, I would NOT want to be sitting right near the rain/snow line 2-3 days out like what’s been shown on the GFS recently. The precipitation shield is probably going to extend further NW than depicted like always, so seeing that shift to the southeast at this stage should be a welcome sight for I-85, not doom?
Click to expand...

I’m honestly just more bummed about the lack of QPF for mby. Everything has trended weaker and flatter today. That’s not gonna cut it


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Engeo said:
Why all the sudden negativity? Just from the perspective of tracking these storms over the years and not as a trained meteorologist, I would NOT want to be sitting right near the rain/snow line 2-3 days out like what’s been shown on the GFS recently. The precipitation shield is probably going to extend further NW than depicted like always, so seeing that shift to the southeast at this stage should be a welcome sight for I-85, not doom?
Click to expand...
The difference is that AIFS and WeatherNext have barely budged an inch, and are even further southeast - and from what I understand they haven't exhibited that kind of "last minute NW trend" that the older versions/models used to.
 
xshare said:
The difference is that AIFS and WeatherNext have barely budged an inch, and are even further southeast - and from what I understand they haven't exhibited that kind of "last minute NW trend" that the older versions/models used to.
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Even with no NW trend in the track, I feel like the extent of the precipitation shield has been further NW than depicted on models in the past in these types of storms. Maybe misremembering.
 
There’s a reason why we’re in a major storm. I full expect this storm to be very weak with little precip except for maybe eastern nc down to Georgia


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xshare said:
The difference is that AIFS and WeatherNext have barely budged an inch, and are even further southeast - and from what I understand they haven't exhibited that kind of "last minute NW trend" that the older versions/models used to.
Click to expand...

The GFS is actually in alignment apparently with the AI, the big problem is that it's too warm for almost everyone.

They probably actually have a point. It took a while for the cold to bleed towards the east today.
 
jrips27 said:
Peak cinema here would be the Euro coming NW while everyone on I-85 is cliff diving
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Our only hope is this shifts like last year. I don't know when the models will actually lock on the correct amount of moisture but it's really frustrating.
 
bouncycorn said:
Analysis data is available hourly (ERA5), so I’m sure we’ll have hourly-output AINWP models soon.

The current models output with a 6hour interval because 6-hour intervals score the highest with the current model architectures used.
Click to expand...
At what point do the models start getting a better idea on how much overrunning will occur? Last year places near Atlanta didn't show anything until the last minute.
 
the precip will arrive earlier than forecast anyways; so not having the cold already in place was a major red flag. never does it work out in my yard without an arctic front already through, 99/100 times
 
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