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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

FFC's current take on this system. They think we could see more than just the mountains getting flurries. Seems to go with the Euro's idea.
With surface low basically traversing the northern sections of the
forecast area, first inclinations would be that instability may be
hard to come by. But with such a dynamic system, it appears strong
diffluence aloft may aid in the development of elevated convective
elements north and surface based to the south. 50 to 60 knot low
level jet could be enough to allow for some localized strong to
severe storms as well.

On the back side of the system, much colder air will stream into
the area. Column max temperature profile indicates all temps
going below 0C quite quickly as wrap around moisture moves in. For
now, will introduce a mix of rain/snow for the higher elevations
but this may need expansion with subsequent runs should model
trends continue.
Click to expand...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, this is a TN special at this point if you ride the NAM. I decided to throw my NAM ticket away and take the Euro train. Anyone else aboard?
snku_acc.us_ov.png
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Looks like an Ohio Valley special to me. Thats an insane cutoff near Indy. Nothing to 14" in like 30 miles.
 
If the NAM/CMC & EURO go toward the GFS... I'm not sure what to think about these models anymore lol
 
I bet we trend back SE where north bama looks better in future runs. Who want to bet?
 
accu35 said:
I bet we trend back SE where north bama looks better in future runs. Who want to bet?
Click to expand...
I bet the opposite. Pretty soon all of us will be looking at a severe weather threat over a snow threat. One more NW jump like that and TN gets way less snow and more ice to the west. Hope it doesn't, because then we would be looking at worse of a severe threat and that I'm not looking forward to.
 
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think at best, this is a Plateau westward storm for TN but obviously anything can happen. I never count on snow in Nashville unless I see it falling from the sky.
 
BNAwx said:
I think at best, this is a Plateau westward storm for TN but obviously anything can happen. I never count on snow in Nashville unless I see it falling from the sky.
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Nashville has done pretty well in recent years havent they ?
 
Storm5 said:
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Lol I never said it was trending bad, just making an observation compared to yesterday, that is all.
 
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
621 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-102200-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville,
Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg,
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta,
Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville,
Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg,
and Pulaski
621 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

...A Winter Weather Event Possible Across Middle Tennessee Friday
into Saturday...

There is the possiblity of a winter weather event across Middle
Tennessee Friday into Saturday, with accumulations of ice and snow
creating hazardous travel.

An approaching frontal system will produce numerous light to
moderate rain showers Thursday night into Friday. As the cold
front crosses the area from west to east on Friday, temperatures
will fall below freezing, changing rain to freezing rain and
snow. By Friday evening, precipitation will be all snow. The snow
could continue into Saturday as well. On top of some ice
accumulation, several inches of snow could fall, especially across
the northern Highland Rim. Temperatures will be in the 20s Friday
night through Saturday, so hazardous travel is likely.

There is still a significant amount of uncertainty with this
possible winter weather event that is still more than 48 hours
out. Stay tuned for further information from the National Weather
Service Office in Nashville along with our media partners that
serve Middle Tennessee for the latest updates on this potential
winter weather event.
 
I would say this was trending worse by just some of the runs that pushed the snow down into the north central areas of MS and AL. Some runs. I think NMS and the TN valley have a shot and certainly from Nashville west to Memphis
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No it's all good. Just thought my comment was pretty straight forward and didn't know how it could be misinterpreted. We all need some snow
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Yeah, like ground temps won't be an issue on a borderline event. GFS looks a little N
 
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