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Pattern January Joke

Mitch West said:
Moisture is obviously uptrending.. I mean you can call that a trend now. The wildcard is the cold vs warm scenario. That is a big battle with model guidance. The difference is pretty wild this close to the event. I mean for some runs to be showing a snow storm along the coast to some being to warm for EVERYBODY.
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Yea crazy the euro has a snow storm in Savannah and the euro ai has all rain for GSP.
 
Parker said:
Honestly wish it was a little further south at this point in the game with all the changes unfolding 😂


I think I’d cry if I saw Dothan and the gulf coast score big again but I’d cry harder if this turned into a Huntsville storm 😂
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Hey now! I'm in Huntsville. I'd be happy if you guys score in Bham just to see ole James Spann eat some crow. "Zero chance of meaningful snowfall in Alabama. Zero"
 
SimeonNC said:
How warm is the Euro AI, is it a straight up torch or is it borderline?

Maybe it's just a blip and it can be fixed.
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Part of its issue is its quicker with precip arrival.

Honestly it’s somewhat believable that instead of having that fizzling frontal band Saturday in Georgia and then a coastal burst on Sunday… we get a more coherent evolution of the two. Which is what the euro ai shows.
 
NCSNOW said:
Hope folks realize, we got to walk a fine line here. Get to far west and amped up earlier, its gonna warm nose city coming from our sooutheast off the Atlantic.
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It's not quite far enough NW yet. There, I said it! I'm hoping everybody gets in on the snow, but sometimes everybody can't have it (So it's every man for themselves). This may not be my time. But I've got to root for an NW trend starting about Friday if it indeed looks like it's even going to happen. ;)
 
3-6hr timing difference
Mitch West said:
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That SW to NE stipe starting down in LA is what you wanna see. The EPS does not appear to be coastal/Atlantic dominant. Quick Atlantic development is a killer. There is clearly some good earlier lift taking place here
 
Anyone remember last year when modeling was showing snow all the way down to Valdosta Ga. and the snow line was moved all the way up to Nashville, Tn. last year? Are we expecting a NW trend like that or is this year different? I seem to remember a half a state jump in one day of model runs.
 
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broken025 said:
It’ll be classic if we wishcash this northwest and turn it into a rain storm for 85 south and Frosty gets a foot.
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Nobody is safe. This is going to get real scary here very soon. Yes yes these maps are real pretty and inclusive right now but I think that’s going to change here pretty soon. Y’all know the drill. May the odds be ever in your favor. 🍿
 
Nobody is focused on this, and rightfully so, but there’s a good chance for a burst of snow between 4am-8am Saturday morning for northern GA, nc mountains, and the northwest corner of SC. Most of the models have this precip and wetbulb temps generally support snow for this area. Surface temps will be marginal though. Something to watch

IMG_0387.jpeg
 
Parker said:
Honestly wish it was a little further south at this point in the game with all the changes unfolding 😂


I think I’d cry if I saw Dothan and the gulf coast score big again but I’d cry harder if this turned into a Huntsville storm 😂
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Yea, being in the bullseye now with the current trends is not where you want to be. I fully expect the SLP to form earlier and closer to the Alabama coast. If trends continue, this could very well run inland across southern GA, or even become an Apps cutter which would bury us in AL. Time will tell, but the I-20/59 crowd is sitting perfect.
 
The HRRR has been coming in hot and heavy for the northwest flow event tonight and tomorrow in WNC. Pretty darn cold aloft is gonna help squeeze out plenty of moisture. This map is overdone, but I would not be surprised at this juncture to see LeConte report over a foot between now and dawn Friday.

The bigger wild card to me feels like the further north spots (Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Avery along the border). High ceiling as illustrated below, but I’m not convinced those spots will materialize the 10-14” sort of stuff being shown below… but 8” seems plausible to me certainly.

HRRR has been consistent with a spillover band giving someone near AVL more than usual with NWFS. That’s anybody’s guess, but it looks to be a solid setup for such a thing to occur, just not to the level as shown below

IMG_6151.png
 
SimeonNC said:
How warm is the Euro AI, is it a straight up torch or is it borderline?

Maybe it's just a blip and it can be fixed.
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It's in the mid 40's during the best part of the precip super early in the morning. I think the OP's are like 6 hours later than it and are 5 degrees colder and it drops during the event.

It'll be a crying shame if it's right on timing, precip, and temps. As I'd happily take the regular OP timing and the AI QPF as it would probably mean a couple inches of snow...
 
SegTindo said:
Is this bad or good for winter weather fans?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Depends on where you are. With it inching west with the SW but also with the big low about the Great Lakes as well. Plus the big ULL exiting faster stage right over the far NE. The trend should be more tilt/amplification.
 
If the West trends continue .... ESPECIALLY if we go Negative tilt, gonna be really important to know your climo and historical map points.

I-85 N/NW in SC/NC will become a major spot on the map to look and see where you are. It has been a few years since the TRUE CAD All-Stars have raked for EX: KCLT getting 2-4" while 30 miles North on the Iredell/Meck line you have 4-6 and get up to Hickory and through the Surry/Yadkin/Forsythe Regions theyre at 6-8".

I-85 N/NW AND I-40 N/NW memorize those...... if it comes to a historical setup those are the lines between winning and whining
 
If you're rooting for a NW trend, these are exactly the type of systems you would find it in.
There's a south-based +NAO. Generally the trend has been +NAO = NW trend, -NAO = SE trend.
I also like the trend of the orientation of the h5 vort. It would promote a more juiced up system. And the more juiced up it is, the more NW it is.
Even in Northern VA, I'm excited for this system. I think you all will be very happy folks at 0z with the trends currently.
 
bncho said:
If you're rooting for a NW trend, these are exactly the type of systems you would find it in.
There's a south-based +NAO. Generally the trend has been +NAO = NW trend, -NAO = SE trend.
I also like the trend of the orientation of the h5 vort. It would promote a more juiced up system. And the more juiced up it is, the more NW it is.
Even in Northern VA, I'm excited for this system. I think you all will be very happy folks at 0z with the trends currently.
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True but can put folks like my location in or awfully close to waa nosing
 
bncho said:
If you're rooting for a NW trend, these are exactly the type of systems you would find it in.
There's a south-based +NAO. Generally the trend has been +NAO = NW trend, -NAO = SE trend.
I also like the trend of the orientation of the h5 vort. It would promote a more juiced up system. And the more juiced up it is, the more NW it is.
Even in Northern VA, I'm excited for this system. I think you all will be very happy folks at 0z with the trends currently.
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Good point but that is one intense air mass.

Whoever is just west of that boundary….☃️

IMG_5166.png
 
Been loosely following along but this reminds me of 1/21/25, 1/28/14 for ATL area. What was initially forecasted snow for deep SE GA ended up spreading over areas further NW. not saying that will happen here, I’m not well versed in the details over the previous events as far as setup goes but it *feels* similar
 
Arcc said:
Just to throw out more hope for us on the NW fringe, the gentle reminder that precip is usually farther NW than even depicted on the models in overrunning situations. In 2017 a lot of areas NW of the main precip shield got more snow that expected 2-5" VS 1-2 on models..
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The ratios on the NW side are going to be in that 12:1 range as well.
 
KyloG said:
Good point but that is one intense air mass.

Whoever is just west of that boundary….☃️

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Yeah, this seems to be more similar to an overrunning scenario with warm advection coming from the southeast for those on the NW side of these depictions. This isn't a wound up Miller A. If current looks continue, I would think the precip shield would be a little more robust on the NW quadrant.
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, this seems to be more similar to an overrunning scenario with warm advection coming from the southeast for those on the NW side of these depictions. This isn't a wound up Miller A. If current looks continue, I would think the precip shield would be a little more robust on the NW quadrant.
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Yep... I'm just skimming through stuff and the Ukie tries to really bomb this. Which for us down east is concerning haha. Someone getting a nice surprise Sunday I do believe
 
James Spann just tossed those of us in south/central AL a little bit of hope.

"The weekend will be generally dry, but a weak wave along the front in the northern Gulf could bring a few sprinkles or flurries to South Alabama Saturday night. Again, no accumulation or impact is expected."

I'll take it. Hopefully, that moisture will trend eastward for the rest of y'all.
 
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