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Pattern January Joke

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6z icon making better adjustments at H5


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GSP discussion
1:25AM

Key message 4: We will be keeping an eye on the potential for winter
precip east of the mountains on Sunday, but confidence right now
remains relatively low.

We note some interesting developments in the operational GFS
during the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned upper
trof amplifies Saturday and Saturday night with a strong short
wave diving down from the northern Plains. The deepening trof
will push a cold front across the region late on Saturday and
the cold air should return Saturday night, dropping temps back
below normal. The short wave depiction on the GFS moving across
the Southeast on Sunday looks quite dynamic and would induce some
good frontogenesis and isentropic upglide back over the cold air
east of the mtns Sunday morning. If precip were to develop over our
eastern zones on Sunday it would be snow. Right now, our forecast
will remain essentially dry for this day along the lines of the
National Blend, which has by far the most support for no precip. The
point here is not to wish-cast, but to point out this alternate
scenario. We would be remiss to not mention that the operational
GFS has some support from its ensemble showing the western edge
of a band of wintry precip over the eastern zones, so this will be
worth keeping an eye on going forward while managing expectations.



No mention that EURO shows precipitation on the coast or that UKMET has significant snow even further NW than the GFS but at least they did mention the threat (GFS) only.
 
This was RDU update this morning….

Within broad mid/upper troughing over the Eastern US, a shortwave
will move NE across the OH Valley on Saturday as the prefrontal
surface trough crosses central NC. This may result in some light
rain, mainly north, but POPs are only slight at this time. Behind a
cold frontal passage on Saturday night, the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict
a more vigorous shortwave that swings across the Southeast US and
Carolinas on Sunday, with a surface cyclone that develops off the
coast of the Carolinas and moves NE. With very cold temperatures
aloft by this point (and Sunday`s surface temperatures staying in
the 30s at least based on the latest raw guidance), any
precipitation that falls over central NC is likely to be snow, but
the question is how much precipitation (if any) we actually receive.
The GFS is sharper with the trough aloft compared to the ECMWF,
resulting in snow across a larger portion of the area compared to
the ECMWF which is more focused in the east. Regardless, considering
nearly half of ECMWF ensembles and over half of GFS ensembles depict
accumulating snow across the area, it bears watching. WPC QPF is
light at this time but could increase if models converge on a
surface low track closer to the coast.


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If you have followed this hobby for a good while: You will remember an ole mental note from years past. The Ukmet has had a reputation for being numero uno in sniffing out and forecasting phased storms better than any other guidance. Don;t ask me why, but its good to see things working the way the use to every once in a while. Especially this hobby.
Not saying ukmet will be spot on inside next 5 days. But it will be the hoarse that leads you to the water more-so than the other models mid range when you are dealing with any shot of phasing the SS with the NS. Seen it countless times before through the years.
 
xshare said:
Looks like all the models are converging on the coastal track. Still holding out some hope for stretching out towards Atlanta but it’ll take some work
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rule 1 over a winter weather enthusiast- don’t be in the bullseye until 36 hours out max. Especially with overrunning where these things notoriously are much more expensive on the NW side
 
packfan98 said:
Yep. The euro ai is all rain. That would be a gut punch after all of this work getting a system to come together.
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100 hours out and everyone here in central Alabama should be salivating over this look with the SW changes so far. So so close to a good one. Fun few days ahead for a lot of us
 
Mitch West said:
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Honestly wish it was a little further south at this point in the game with all the changes unfolding 😂


I think I’d cry if I saw Dothan and the gulf coast score big again but I’d cry harder if this turned into a Huntsville storm 😂
 
Did the weather next model shift west too? It was early with the ukie showing this hoping it held serve .
 
Moisture is obviously uptrending.. I mean you can call that a trend now. The wildcard is the cold vs warm scenario. That is a big battle with model guidance. The difference is pretty wild this close to the event. I mean for some runs to be showing a snow storm along the coast to some being to warm for EVERYBODY.
 
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