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Misc General Banter Thread

Last year, I willed the snow to Atlanta by buying a sled the week of. Just bought my son some dinosaur snow mittens. Let’s goooooo
 
Probably just as bad around here. I have vague memories of 89/93 but the first real winter storm i remember was 96 and being amazed about it.
I was down east 80-87 @ it wasnt that great. But late 80s into 93 in mtns. You are correct.Putrid outside 93 Blizzard. 96 was good. Then best run in my life was late 90s , cause of canes, into 2000-2004 . Jan 2000, Dec 2002, Feb 2004. Best wx period I expierenced hands down in NC, was late 90s - 2004. Canes and winter wx gallore. 70s where cool as a kid in mtns, but that period is in 2cnd place for me.
 
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Just wanted to remind everyone that keeps saying February is a spring month now and can’t produce anymore that it did produce for some last year, even after hitting 80 degrees a couple times earlier in the month.
Yeah this is almost in Virginia. Of course it can snow there in February. You can’t compare the NC/VA border to most of the south.
 
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Just wanted to remind everyone that keeps saying February is a spring month now and can’t produce anymore that it did produce for some last year, even after hitting 80 degrees a couple times earlier in the month.

Great storm, just wish it hit a little later in the day so more of it would’ve fallen at night. And I wish I was in the snow capital of the Southeast, Moyock.
 
Monday morning pontifications:

1. Someone please reset the GFS, I'm tired of it trolling the SE. It's the worst. I'm starting to think it's worse than the GEM which is hard.
2. TV mets are out of control, click bait addicts. I had to mute some on Facebook/Instagram.
3. Second storm system this weekend looks like identical problems to the first. Too far east and no tilt.
4. Next week maybe we score with a SE ridge and a mega wedge?
5. Panthers loss and wasted cold week is first world sad Monday.
 
I feel like everyone gets mad when they see a trough axis further west off the east coast. But here we are with dry cold coming up and not enough time for systems to get their act together because the axis is too far east. I will never hold my tongue about this ever again.
 
Not surprisingly, today’s GEFS mean prog has reduced the max amp of the phase 6-7 from the ~2.7 of two days ago to now being close to the Euro’s ~2.1 today (see below). But it retains the 17 day record breaking long winter phase 6.

Also, note that today’s GEFS turns it left as it approaches phase 8:
View attachment 182660

Yesterday’s ext GEFS didn’t turn as much:
View attachment 182662

This change should be respected based on the stats for the # of DJF MJO days by phase since 2011 showing that phases 6/7 were the two most frequent phases day by day and that phase 8’s days numbered only ~1/3 of that of phase 7, which is likely due to the strong W Pac warm pool (where phase 7 resides):

DJF:

1: 76

2: 96

3: 167

4: 173

5: 212

6: 249

7: 286

8: 95


Whether or not the MJO actually goes into phase 8 late this month and then proceed to 1-2-3 in the first half of Feb will probably play a big role as regards the chance for the +PNA to come right back (if it were to actually go back to a -PNA for ~a week just prior) and the resultant resumption of a cold E US as we look toward the 1st half of Feb. If it ends up not going into phase 8 in a meaningful way, the last 2 Euro Weeklies runs showing a mainly mild Feb would seem to have a better chance to verify. Let’s hope not for those who want it cold.

Ruh roh. For February, what can go wrong (warm) the last decade has. My prediction is the pulse dies, doesn't get to 8 and we ridge like the last 10 years (-EAMT wins, jet retracts). I'm sorry I have no good things to say about Februarys.

Now that I'm raging against it, maybe this is the year it changes. Lol.
 
sorry guys thought the 1st event had more legs. wins continue to be hard to come by. marginal improvements possible in the short term
 
Well, I'm intrigued with the weekend thing, but while the 850s say yes, the surface says no with the GFS (Euro said yes at 0z and I got confused as I saw a 300 hr snow map).
 
Charlie Brown Football GIF
 
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i mean ok cool look but the first storm got tanked because the northern lobe of the shortwave became the dominant feature and we're totally at risk of that happening here too

1. I don't even know why this looks good. Look at the positive tilt on it. I'm assuming it's showing a storm, but just at 5h it looks like a whiff to me.
2. Why do we keep doing this to ourselves with the GFS? It really really stinks.
 
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