trackersacker
Member
Ok I’m gonna try and make myself feel better right now and acknowledge that the end of that Euro run did look more interesting with trying to get some energy going to our southwest
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
System #2 isn't that far off from at least a light overrunning event for the deep south. Yes, I don't know when to quit!
NCHighCountryWX
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- Dec 28, 2016
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- 596
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- 1,663
I swear. Bury me in Banner Elk. Or scatter my ashes
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This hobby is not for the faint of heart. Don't worry about it.... most of us are in the same boat. We will hold on until the bitter end before we will let a threat go. One thing we have learned over the years is that things change quickly. Sometimes for the better and sometimes not. The challenge is to keep a level head.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Don't we all love these types of systems that feel like it's one 50-100 mile SW shift to being an all out southern winter storm.
Instead we're likely to get stuck with Toronto, Canada stealing our chance.
Instead we're likely to get stuck with Toronto, Canada stealing our chance.
HailCore
Member
21z SREF does have a tad bit of “noise” going out to 12z Thu, which is still not quite the entire duration of the potential window for wintry weather
NCSNOW
Member
Scroll down. Theres a video someone up on appalachian trail today. 10 degrees. My hunch windchill was minus10-20. Beatifull and your still in the south, best part.
-10’s windchill up there is no joke. Borderline miserable. Me and my brother got stuck and got into a fender bender near SugarTop last year with windchills around -15. Had to walk with our luggage the last quarter mile to sugar ski and county club and by the time we got to the condo I had frost nip on both my hands. Hard to catch your breath in that stuff
NBAcentel
Member
Cooked 
NCWeatherNow
Member
Imagine we get it in 150 hr
Not the mama
Member
Hello. I’m kinda new to following the weather and have a legitimate question that I want to ask real people not chat gpt. It seems like the gfs and a lot of the other models all do stupid stuff until a few days away then start to look similar to the euro. My question is what’s the reason for focusing so much on it? Is it that the runs are bigger and more frequent so it’s more fun to dig into or is it that they provide hope for a barren snowless desert that has become the south. It looks like the default should be trust what the euros saying and if the gfs doesn’t agree call bs on it and not get invested into what it’s doing. Not that the euro is perfect and they both can crap the bed farther out but it seems like the euro is way more trustworthy. (And worth putting your hope into)
JP Dice is definitely not discounting system #2.
It isn't a joke at all. Back in early Dec I got to -3 on my thermometer and it had to be blowing 40+ outside. I went out in it and literally got blown across the ice standing still. I think chills were around -20-25. Exposed skin became painful within seconds. It's very windy right now actually and my thermometer says it's 12. It's why I moved here though. Love it.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
ZERO Chance …. ZERO. If this guy is a met take his credentials dude posted pivotal maps on top of it lol
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We’re down to 32 after a midnight high of 61. 8F on Mitchell
accu35
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I wouldn’t say zero chance. We seen these systems fade away to only come back stronger. Still a week away for storm #2 we got time
NBAcentel
Member
Nam coming in decently West with the northern vort. Maybe a sign, most likely a blip
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Basically, we want that northern vort to where the diggity dog is, for weenie runs. The further west, the better. But where that hot dog is, is where we want the vort to be for an appreciable output. It’s literally still that close 
HailCore
Member
NAM does bring a brief changeover from rain to snow with the initial precip band east of the apps through central NC
Xlhunter3
Member
NAM tried to cook a deform band, hanging on by a thread lol
trackersacker
Member
I actually didn’t hate that NAM run. Pleasantly surprised in fact. Could be better but it was ok.
tractor girl
Member
That dry slot in far eastern GA
trackersacker
Member
Alright @Mitch West is asleep but I’m wide awake. People we have to bully these 00z models back into good trends starting right now.
Xlhunter3
Member
AJ1013
Member
GFS Fantasy land sub-0F in NC hahaha
trackersacker
Member
The icon is having its best run since 00z last night. And certainly not as good , but we’re headed back the other direction here
HailCore
Member
Agreed. Not the best run itself, but definitely a positive tick to end a day of overall wrong-way trends. It would take a lot more trending, but the chance isn’t gone yet…
The RGEM shows an alternative evolution with a more energetic vorticity maximum rounding the base of the trough. The problem in this case is that thermals are a touch warmer (missing that injection of cold from the NE TPV) and the inability to not remain positive tilt.
I like the move west, but the shortwaves are like a thousand miles apart. If they don't consolidate at the base of the trough over southern Alabama, forget it.
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HailCore
Member
Very interesting how it has a notable patch of precipitation down across central MS/AL that tries to slide east, but runs out of steam and cold air. Wonder what could have happened if that was an option to supply a greater amount of moisture initially and then send it from MS/AL all the way up into the mid Atlantic, but probably a far fetched scenario that would not work with this setup.
Yep. Only other option is to get the lakes cinnamon bun far enough E that the tail of the trough can try to close off. In that case though we'd have cold air problems
trackersacker
Member
Icon buries the TPV into the Ohio/TN Valley next weekend 
ICON is frigid but mainly dry outside of the mountains, then things get interesting for NE N. Carolina and Virginia. This year's snow magnets.
trackersacker
Member
Icon popping a coastal low and snowing over me at 7° next Monday morning. Well I’m here for that 