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Pattern January Joke

GaWx said:
I’m talking about taking the heavy amounts with a humongous grain. Because:
-It’s the GFS out a week
-Other models have much less
-It’s an unusual setup to get heavy snow. These amounts are more typically what you’d see with a Miller A low and one that skims Gulf coast or crosses N or C FL
-Prior GEFS runs had few members with this much. Let’s see what 12Z shows.
-GFS itself is jumping all around:

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Thank you!
 
GaWx said:
It hasn’t at all been consistent on amounts. See gif below.
Regardless, even it if had been consistent, it’s the 7 day GFS that strongly disagrees with other models, including better ones.
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Just mean it's been consistent on a storm for some of us. Of course the amount/timing and exact location changes some, but it hasn't backed off.
 
rburrel2 said:
Gfs is probably over cooking the 2nd storm a tad but thermal profiles are there for an all snow event for the upstate. Consensus right now is more like .1-.2 of liquid though. I’m more concerned with precip than temps.(famous last words)
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Doubt it honestly. With this type of setup it favors an overrunner type of system which usually doesn't favor our areas but for some reason we continue to see signs. Last overrunner to work here to my knowledge was 12/8/17.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Almost border line Blizzard Conditions now. Near zero visibility. Wind is ripping. Grandfather Mtn on the Parkway.
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700mb cold core/vort max helping whip up some squalls this morning and graupel over the Foothills. Banner Elk was pretty much at whiteout a few minutes ago

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For system #2, the GEFS supports a vertical trough in line with today's operational GFS runs rather than the strung out overriding looks previously advertised. I suspect once system#1 exits, we'll be once again be rooting for a deeper/sharper trough, only this time starting further to our west.
1768150795442.png
 
NWG_WX14 said:
Kuchera is much more accurate than snow depth
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What is the difference between Kuchera and snow depth? I assume Kuchera a ratio based around liquid QPF (right?) but what data does snow depth use or is it literally just the depth of the snow? Does it consider the ratio variability on any given setup?
 
4d87b814b8d73344356fa62d3dfcfb83.jpg

I can’t argue with this for a light event being 4-5 days out. Hopefully we get better trends the next few days.


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Decided to look back a little bit at previous euro run loops. I've noticed something I've missed. CMC did some "odd" interactions that resulted in less zonal flow and better looks overall. However, one thing interesting here. Euro has actually slowly been trending towards this "less zonal look." We'll see if 12z continues this trend or not.
 

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Gonna snow Thursday and Again Sunday Triad. Book it. Question is how much. 5 mins of flakes each time or 3-5 inches total. To be decided. Im zeroed in on storm #1. 50-100 mile shift with several things can take this to glory or dud/nada. Rooting for a futher west entry point with shortwave and steeper deeper fall. Whatever it takes to drop in the ole bread basket,trough futher southwest. Take latest GFS h5 and seriously, another 50-100 mile adjustment and its winter storm warning Triad. 50-100 otherway, its business as usual. Gonna be another 48-60 hours before its settled.
 
Stormlover said:
Just mean it's been consistent on a storm for some of us. Of course the amount/timing and exact location changes some, but it hasn't backed off.
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I agree on the consistency of a storm on the GFS and feel the chance of getting something for your area is increasing, which would excite me if I were there. However, I was recommending to take the storm #2 heavy amounts (widespread 3-4”) with a big grain for the reasons I stated. When solutions like this aren’t taken with a grain and the amounts don’t verify, that tends to lead to disappointment/complaining later from some.

Keep in mind that the image below is the sum total for the 2 storms. For storm #2, itself, which is what I was referring to on the GFS, I found at most 5 of the 30 12Z GEFS members with widespread N AL/N GA amounts even close to the 12Z GFS amounts: 1, 3, 7, 13, and 14. And they’re for the most part not as heavy. So, there’s a chance for 3-4”, but a low one as of now.

Don’t forget that some on this image is from storm #1:
IMG_6926.png
 
Not sure the Euro is going to work for #1, energy is in diving down in Wisconsin and further east compared to 0z

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iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
One factor I wonder is how well is AIFS able to handle such mesoscale features like this one has.
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AI runs off of zero physics is my understanding. So I have a hard time putting much faith in them. Course GFS, Gefs does run off physics and I have as equal less faith in them.
Love to be corrected. But AI, reminds me of NBB or whatever the model is that crunches all physics models together

Storm 2. Biggest handicap is the lack of seperation from #1. Way more likely to vanish
 
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Think we have to have a middle ground here with the GFS/GEFS trending west and Euro trending east
 
NCSNOW said:
AI runs off of zero physics is my understanding. So I have a hard time putting much faith in them. Course GFS, Gefs does run off physics and I have as equal less faith in them.
Love to be corrected. But AI, reminds me of NBB or whatever the model is that crunches all physics models together
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NMB, I think what you're talking about. National Model Blend. Yeah, I'm not sure about AI yet either, don't really understand them. They may be great, but JB has shown many times how horrible they bust. He says there are no better than the physics models "yet," but sometimes he uses them if they show what he has been alluding to. He likes the model that shows what he thinks, he says. lol
 
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