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Pattern January Joke

Euro drops a big boy high into the states around 1/9, centers a 1047 over Wyoming on 1/10 and we all struggle to get above freezing thru the end of the run. All of this with a jammed flow. Woof. This is where we need to silence the NS energy and sneak something through to the south. Decent window if it’s to be believed

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trackersacker said:
Man I’m really not here to watch another banger hit the Gulf Coast. Upper south is overdue for a bomb. Been getting nickled and dimed to death for years.
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Be thankful you’ve been nickled and dimed lol. Your foothills brethren on the other side of the mountains would kill to trade places with you. 90% of this forum would have a stroke if they lived in a location that misses snow by 10-20 miles weekly in the winter with flow and then watches every region in the South score the past few years.
 
Mitch West said:
I tried to post a GIF but it was to long & wouldn’t upload. I attached a post I did on X below.

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We might get a true -NAO retrogression into west Canada giving everything is backing up. It’s been a while since we’ve had a successful retrogression, we are heading towards a fun looking month. -NAO/undercut look ➡️ +PNA/-NAO ➡️ +PNA/-EPO seems like the progression we are heading for
 
NBAcentel said:
We might get a true -NAO retrogression into west Canada giving everything is backing up. It’s been a while since we’ve had a successful retrogression, we are heading towards a fun looking month. -NAO/undercut look ➡️ +PNA/-NAO ➡️ +PNA/-EPO seems like the progression we are heading for
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Ducks going to be on the pond soon?
 
Check out how much weaker the SPV forecast is at 10 mb based on the 60N mean zonal wind on the Euro Weeklies!

One week ago (12/21 run): quite strong just about all Jan through Feb 4th with no end in sight (mean 40-47 m/s):
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Today (12/28 run): near normal Jan 10th-Feb 11th (mean only 25-35):
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My thoughts...I thought last night's Euro progression (below) looked really good as it went bonkers with the Greenland blocking and W Canada ridge spike combo, leading to the deep trough. I think something like that is possible, but hard to say how likely. But I think most of us are going to need something aggressive like that to get the storm track to our south with enough cold air in the Jan 7 to 12 timeframe. In the Jan 12-18 timeframe, the Eur Wks want to retro the pattern fairly quickly....+PNA > -EPO....back to -WPO by late Jan.

This winter, we need all the Pac Jet momentum we can get. La Nina and the weak / ineffective MJO this winter don't help with Pac Jet momentum. Asia looks solid with +EAMT (jet extender - some lag to reach N America) thru the upcoming week, then high pressure builds in west of the Tibetan Plateau (-EAMT look / jet retractor - some lag to reach N America) in the Jan 4-8 timeframe, so the retrograding pattern on the Weeklies in mid-Jan makes sense to the eye.

The Pac Jet extension over the next 2 weeks is taking on a more equatorward / cyclonic wave breaking look, with the ridge building back up thru W Canada and into E AK. This is in contrast to a more anti-cyclonic wave breaking look, with a big rollover ridge in AK leading to a big arctic outbreak.

Bottom Line: I view the pattern to be better than climatology in the Jan 7 to Jan 18 timeframe, but not high end. Things will evolve going forward of course. Hope is that we see something closer to last night's Euro evolution on the front side of this pattern.

Dec 28 Euro.gif
 
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