GiantBear
Member
Wow, nearly all ensemble members now have precipitation moving toward the lower southeast. Even if it’s all rain, still needed!
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Pattern January Joke
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Very intrigued to see where we stand in a week. I’d say my main concerns at this stage are with cold air sources.
Feeling pretty optimistic about precip chances. You’ve seen long range models (namely the AI ones) tossing out a more active storm track up the coast and the EPS reflects it some with some + precip anoms along the classic gulf to NE track. It at least looks more active than the next 7-10 days.
still lots and lots of model runs to sift through. There’s fail modes, it’s not perfect, but you got to remember there is a LOT of time for things to move around in good or bad directions. I’d like to see a bit more reliable cold and a more obvious signal begin to emerge within the next week to feel more confident beyond “pattern looks solid”
Feeling pretty optimistic about precip chances. You’ve seen long range models (namely the AI ones) tossing out a more active storm track up the coast and the EPS reflects it some with some + precip anoms along the classic gulf to NE track. It at least looks more active than the next 7-10 days.
still lots and lots of model runs to sift through. There’s fail modes, it’s not perfect, but you got to remember there is a LOT of time for things to move around in good or bad directions. I’d like to see a bit more reliable cold and a more obvious signal begin to emerge within the next week to feel more confident beyond “pattern looks solid”
I thought the cold was already looking good?
Euro Weekly at 500mb is trending nicely for Jan 13-20. Runs are 10 days ago, 5 days ago, today
iGRXY
Member
Cross polar flow with this look
NBAcentel
Member
that day 10 mess is maybe decent with the -NAO and all but man the western ridging showing up is far more exciting to me
This is the way to do it.
that would help my cold air concerns!
I really think this is the steps setting up for what could be a special mid to back half of January. This will likely connect to what the weeklies are now showing.
I can give my take on this. The GEFS is not great. I am not a fan of that sorta blended version of the members either that weatherbell offers.
But yeh, I just think the GEFS follows its op to much & because it has less members than the EPS, it is skewed much easier by a couple individual outlier members. I don't even show the GEFS on any of my social media platforms much unless it's aligning with the EPS.
for example, I'll show it here because it's now trending towards the EPS. Like the follower it is..
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Love the positivity man. Thanks for your research!
Oconeexman
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First time this winter I've seen this from NWS
CJ gonna be honking on wyff
CJ gonna be honking on wyff
Twister
Member
Dale Gilbert tonight already did, He said 40% rain snow mix Sat morning
Lmaooo
Someone needs to do this map for the Carolinas and Southern Virginia I bet it'll look awfully similarSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
That’s a phat +PNA ridge getting going on the GEFS, and exactly where you want the pacific jet to break at 
If you are referring to a weak phase on the left of the circle, Larry has already provided plenty of evidence it's a good place to be for winter storms.
Thank you. I couldn’t remember who put that study together. Earlier today I mentioned the winter of 2013-14. That winter saw the MJO enter COD in late December on the left side and basically circled around mostly on the left until spring. It’s one example obviously, but we all know that turned out.
GFS just zapped that lil wave into oblivion. Pretty solid press 
Early. But a much different looking run here
Geez look at the block over Baffin Bay and Greenland
Bigedd09
Member
Been lookin like that for several runs in a row. Hopefully the latter half of January will deliver
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It is just now incorporating the block in the 0Z, you can see how it is slowing the flow more in the 7-12 day range. I would expect it to further retrograde the SE Canada vortex further if the block holds in future runs.
If we could just find a way to flip the Aleutians we’d be singing a much different tune right now
You got it Stormdoc. It has the roadblock / backup plan we’re looking for as we sacrifice the Jan 8 storm for better things behind it. But in the end, it’s too far west with everything that wraps up behind. Just try to be in the ballpark / in the realm of possibility is all we can shoot for in the long range, and that’s what we have here
NBAcentel
Member
lol 
Yeah that may get interesting down the line
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah…. Looks like Stevos Jack Frost movie watch is gonna do something here 
Might get sheared out but we might be about to cook
It’s like trying to put a complex puzzle together these days with the way the Euro run comes out so piecemeal across the model platforms. Ugh
NBAcentel
Member
Wouldn’t shock me if this run has a snow in areas that got nailed last January in the Deep South/ far southeast lol
trackersacker
Member
Man I’m really not here to watch another banger hit the Gulf Coast. Upper south is overdue for a bomb. Been getting nickled and dimed to death for years.
Euro went big early with the Pac Jet extension and associated western ridge this run, leading to the sharp eastern trough. Combine that with the west based NAO block, and you’ve got the suppressed storm track
Twister
Member
Well just hang on got 342hrs to Move NW, That trend is your friend
trackersacker
Member
Honestly gotta like what it did generally speaking. Lot of cold air and energy flying around second week of January. Big things can happen.
If we get anything close to this in 10 days I think we’d consider that a massive win