GiantBear
Member
Wow, nearly all ensemble members now have precipitation moving toward the lower southeast. Even if it’s all rain, still needed!
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Very intrigued to see where we stand in a week. I’d say my main concerns at this stage are with cold air sources.
Feeling pretty optimistic about precip chances. You’ve seen long range models (namely the AI ones) tossing out a more active storm track up the coast and the EPS reflects it some with some + precip anoms along the classic gulf to NE track. It at least looks more active than the next 7-10 days.
still lots and lots of model runs to sift through. There’s fail modes, it’s not perfect, but you got to remember there is a LOT of time for things to move around in good or bad directions. I’d like to see a bit more reliable cold and a more obvious signal begin to emerge within the next week to feel more confident beyond “pattern looks solid”
Feeling pretty optimistic about precip chances. You’ve seen long range models (namely the AI ones) tossing out a more active storm track up the coast and the EPS reflects it some with some + precip anoms along the classic gulf to NE track. It at least looks more active than the next 7-10 days.
still lots and lots of model runs to sift through. There’s fail modes, it’s not perfect, but you got to remember there is a LOT of time for things to move around in good or bad directions. I’d like to see a bit more reliable cold and a more obvious signal begin to emerge within the next week to feel more confident beyond “pattern looks solid”
I thought the cold was already looking good?
Euro Weekly at 500mb is trending nicely for Jan 13-20. Runs are 10 days ago, 5 days ago, today
iGRXY
Member
Cross polar flow with this look
NBAcentel
Member
that day 10 mess is maybe decent with the -NAO and all but man the western ridging showing up is far more exciting to me
This is the way to do it.
that would help my cold air concerns!
I really think this is the steps setting up for what could be a special mid to back half of January. This will likely connect to what the weeklies are now showing.
I can give my take on this. The GEFS is not great. I am not a fan of that sorta blended version of the members either that weatherbell offers.
But yeh, I just think the GEFS follows its op to much & because it has less members than the EPS, it is skewed much easier by a couple individual outlier members. I don't even show the GEFS on any of my social media platforms much unless it's aligning with the EPS.
for example, I'll show it here because it's now trending towards the EPS. Like the follower it is..
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Love the positivity man. Thanks for your research!
Oconeexman
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First time this winter I've seen this from NWS
CJ gonna be honking on wyff
CJ gonna be honking on wyff
Twister
Member
Dale Gilbert tonight already did, He said 40% rain snow mix Sat morning
Lmaooo
Someone needs to do this map for the Carolinas and Southern Virginia I bet it'll look awfully similarSent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
That’s a phat +PNA ridge getting going on the GEFS, and exactly where you want the pacific jet to break at 
If you are referring to a weak phase on the left of the circle, Larry has already provided plenty of evidence it's a good place to be for winter storms.
Thank you. I couldn’t remember who put that study together. Earlier today I mentioned the winter of 2013-14. That winter saw the MJO enter COD in late December on the left side and basically circled around mostly on the left until spring. It’s one example obviously, but we all know that turned out.