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Pattern January Joke

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I asked Grok (AI tool on X) to tell me what analogs matched the 500 mb pattern on the EPS around the 6th.

It gave me

• February 4-6th, 2010
• December 18th, 2009
• March 2018 as a whole
• January/February 2015 as a whole

I looked up February 4th-6th 2010 and December 18th-2009.

Just a fun little exercise. I may do this more often and see if anything comes of it.
 

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I could see a couple of systems trying to get something going 1/6-1/10. After that the trough over Alaska retrogrades west and rising heights begin to build over the west coast as ridging builds over Canada during the transitional period.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
e54b00a1668cc7690593d6ee4b18ee9c.gif

I could see a couple of systems trying to get something going 1/6-1/10. After that the trough over Alaska retrogrades west and rising heights begin to build over the west coast as ridging builds over Canada during the transitional period.


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Click to expand...

This straight up just looks like an El Niño pattern, except this time the cold air and snow is pretty well established beforehand instead of the usual step-down from a torch we often see from this pattern in those winters.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This straight up just looks like an El Niño pattern, except this time the cold air and snow is pretty well established beforehand instead of the usual step-down from a torch we often see from this pattern in those winters.
Click to expand...

I have seen the STJ getting active (as you’ve already mentioned) on some of the models, just time that with one of the cold shots coming down from the northern stream and it could get interesting.


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Ladies and Gentlemen,

Pack made a post about this yesterday, and I'm going to reiterate it. Please stop the trolling. This is a weather forum and we talk about the pattern and potential interesting weather.

Of course, we all know that post Day 8 is fantasy range. EVERYONE here knows that. It doesn't have to be pointed out over and over and over.

Also, we don't need the "Nah never gonna happen" posts either. If you have a meteorological reason for something, post it. The trolling needs to stop.

There is nothing going on right now. If is aggravating for you to see people talking about long range stuff, simply stay out of the thread.

If instead you'd enjoy talking about sunshine and clear skies, I will be more than happy to start a Fair Weather thread, and you can post away until your heart is content.

Thank you. This will help keep the mood of the forum and the staff positive as things start to get busier.
 
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trackersacker said:
View attachment 180071
I asked Grok (AI tool on X) to tell me what analogs matched the 500 mb pattern on the EPS around the 6th.

It gave me

• February 4-6th, 2010
• December 18th, 2009
• March 2018 as a whole
• January/February 2015 as a whole

I looked up February 4th-6th 2010 and December 18th-2009.

Just a fun little exercise. I may do this more often and see if anything comes of it.
Click to expand...
Ideally, you'd like to see the core of that low anomaly centered back SW a tad, but there is a lot to like about that map and the pattern in general as we move forward.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Make this graph prettier and prettier over the next week and Jack is happy

View attachment 180086
Click to expand...
I realized I didn’t say anything of value on this I just said: “I like snow”

So anyways, boy, when’s the last time any of us in the southeast outside of northern NC had any legitimate noise in the LR on the EPS? I feel like I’ve been looking at blank or barely gray graphs all winter.

IMO it’s too early to commit to a single time frame. We’ve got some ideas out there that may end up correct but we’ve still got some sifting through the dirt to find gold we need to get done. Like others I’m most intrigued in a general 1/6-12ish time frame. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if we have a storm thread (or two) by the time I get back from our family new years trip on 1/3
 
jackendrickwx said:
I realized I didn’t say anything of value on this I just said: “I like snow”

So anyways, boy, when’s the last time any of us in the southeast outside of northern NC had any legitimate noise in the LR on the EPS? I feel like I’ve been looking at blank or barely gray graphs all winter.

IMO it’s too early to commit to a single time frame. We’ve got some ideas out there that may end up correct but we’ve still got some sifting through the dirt to find gold we need to get done. Like others I’m most intrigued in a general 1/6-12ish time frame. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if we have a storm thread (or two) by the time I get back from our family new years trip on 1/3
Click to expand...

Yeah there's some really big members here during that timeframe 👀

I know it's long range but well there hasn't even been a big storm... Since I can remember a date haha
 
Things might not end up coming together, but a lot of the players that we look for in big east coast snowstorms look like they will be taking the field pretty soon. There are never any guarantees, but consider:

We have very cold air on our side of the globe. We may finally start to see some ridging out west. It looks like we're finally getting that elusive wintertime west -NAO, for more than a microsecond. And the STJ appears to be waking up. And it's occurring during peak climo.

All of this is unusual in winters of late. It's possible that it leads to nothing. But If any of us were presented with this opportunity before winter began, we would have asked where to sign.

Glory is waiting....
 
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Rain Cold said:
Things might not end up coming together, but a lot of the players that we look for in big east coast snowstorms look like they will be taking the field pretty soon. There are never any guarantees, but consider:

We have very cold air on our side of the globe. We may finally start to see aomw ridging out west. It looks like we're finally getting that elusive wintertime west -NAO, for more than a microsecond. And the STJ appears to be waking up. And it's occurring during peak climo.

All of this is unusual in winters of late. It's possible that it leads to nothing. But If any of us were presented with this opportunity before winter began, we would have asked where to sign.

Glory is waiting....
Click to expand...

I’m debating on whether or not I need to
leave out my now lucky “let it snow” Christmas ornaments out on the center piece in the living room. The wife is probably going to say something, but I’ll win this argument.


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This may sneak up on some people…
Vorticity continues to back up SW and orient itself better. I could see this becoming a coastal NE and Mid- Atlantic moderate snowstorm.
Euro and Canadian are not catching on yet but I think this deserves watching. GFS has been first to sniff systems this winter.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
I’m debating on whether or not I need to
leave out my now lucky “let it snow” Christmas ornaments out on the center piece in the living room. The wife is probably going to say something, but I’ll win this argument.


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Click to expand...
Yeah you need to do it lol
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The potential system on the 1st is still of interest. There was a large uptick in 6z GEFS members with precip in the deep SE, along with the same LP on the CFS (a little too warm on the latter). Note also that the GFS OP shows a more robust shortwave.
View attachment 180080View attachment 180082
View attachment 180083
Click to expand...
Yes please. I’m in Forsyth county and correct me if I’m wrong but a good number of those ensembles look to throw down some snow here
 
shortstopsergio said:
Yes please. I’m in Forsyth county and correct me if I’m wrong but a good number of those ensembles look to throw down some snow here
Click to expand...
Yes, they do. Sadly, outside of the GFS and CFS, there is no other support. Let's see what happens in a few minutes. So far, ICON=nada.
 
Love the trends! Let's get it fellas!!! With the way things are looking something will probably show up in the medium range here soon. Cold air is up in Canada Southern jet is about to crank up. Not much more you can ask for in the Carolinas. Love you guys! It's been a pleasure to be apart of the conversation the last 10+ years.
 
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