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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Now that would be a great way to bring in the new year! That Euro run overnight was bonkers. And also having the GFS on board is a plus. Wonder if this is going to be one of those legit threats where the Euro shows a storm in the long range, other models follow, then they lose it and bring it back as we get closer.
 
iGRXY said:
Need the -NAO to continue to push further west and it'll slow the progression and dig the North Atlantic troughing more and more south and west.
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I’d like to see the the southern stream start to get a bit more active along with that,
 
iGRXY said:
Sure am because it's winter and we like cold weather and a cold Christmas on this board.
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Just because you do don't mean "Everyone" does. That's the problem here it's y'all way with cold or No way. Just because it's winter doesn't mean everybody wants it cold. Will you ever grasp that?? Nope you or others don't have enough sense to realize that not everyone likes cold and winter
 
Twister said:
Just because you do don't mean "Everyone" does. That's the problem here it's y'all way with cold or No way. Just because it's winter doesn't mean everybody wants it cold. Will you ever grasp that?? Nope you or others don't have enough sense to realize that not everyone likes cold and winter
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And you have zero sense to realize you're on a southern weather board where the overwhelming majority of the people want cold and snow. It's not that hard to grasp. But you're literally the only person that gets pissy when the board gets happy about cold during WINTER. If you like warm weather, fine. But you get entirely too in your feelings about being on a site where you're in the a very slim minority. That's just a fact.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the GFS & Euro are how you’d have to score in this pattern.

Slow-moving cut-off that gets timed up right with a west-based -NAO and 50-50 low. We’d likely have a hefty dose of CAD in the mix no matter how you’d slice it, barring that something actually showed up ofc.

It is the kind of setup that if done properly, would have a really high ceiling because of how slow the pattern is.
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Biggest problem is see is the cold air presses way east of traditional Cad favored areas. Where Ne Ga and Nw Sc get the warm nose screw job. Very odd depiction to me. Would love to hear your thoughts
 
Webberweather53 said:
An oldie example of how a west-based -NAO/-PNA can work in our favor if we play things right:

This is the 1922 Knickerbocker Storm which caused a roof collapse to the first movie theater in America. Also dropped 3 feet of snow in Roxboro, just a very slow moving and amped storm.

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I quit if Roxboro gets 36 inches while I get 1
 
NCSNOW said:
HO HO Ho

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4 days latter:

What a 3 day storm from the Euro: Giddy up

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This Euro storm reminds me of another from last January that caused social media to get way out of control and even caused me to be texted in the middle of the night from an Atlanta friend due to his Facebook feed from this as if it were credible:
IMG_6222.png

But this did turn out to be when the historic Gulf coast/deep SE winter storm occurred (1/21-22/2025).
 
Oconeexman said:
Biggest problem is see is the cold air presses way east of traditional Cad favored areas. Where Ne Ga and Nw Sc get the warm nose screw job. Very odd depiction to me. Would love to hear your thoughts
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The orientation of the wedge definitely has a big outcome your way. Usually those of us east of highway 25 are sitting pretty regardless, but your way definitely can get the screw job.
 
Oconeexman said:
Biggest problem is see is the cold air presses way east of traditional Cad favored areas. Where Ne Ga and Nw Sc get the warm nose screw job. Very odd depiction to me. Would love to hear your thoughts
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It’s pretty normal for the upstate of SC into Charlotte to get screwed over when there’s a deep coastal cyclone involved. Those rarely work out well for the SW Piedmont of NC into the 85 corridor of SC
 
It's nice to wake up and see an improved mood on this board. Nothing like a couple of long-range fantasy runs to perk up the weenies :D

Now let's see. This is just about the time frame (7-days) that the predicted SE torches have begun to trend colder of late. Let's see if we can bet the streak and at least get Christmas chilly.
 
trackersacker said:
December 2010 was negative PNA and heavy AO/NAO. Any chance we can pull that off in January this year?
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6”+ storms since 1950 at GSO and/or RDU: most negative PNA:

-1.1: 2/12-13/2014 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 1/22-24/1954 (moderate +NAO)
-0.8: 3/2-3/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.7: 1/6-7/2017 (moderate +NAO)
-0.5: 3/9/1960 (neutral NAO)
-0.3: 12/26/2010 (moderate -NAO)
-0.3: 2/24-26/2015 (strong +NAO)

Daily PNA:


Daily NAO:
 
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Tsappfrog20 said:
Some good stuff from JWall




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah I disagree there. I think the Aleutian ridge is the main problem; blocking real cold our way and keeping the flow off the pacific due to the trough it creates. The -NAO is a secondary help to get us seasonal and wedgy, but I have little faith that it will bring us an actual storm.

To Kylo's point, hopefully it goes poleward and we really improve our situation.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It's nice to wake up and see an improved mood on this board. Nothing like a couple of long-range fantasy runs to perk up the weenies :D

Now let's see. This is just about the time frame (7-days) that the predicted SE torches have begun to trend colder of late. Let's see if we can bet the streak and at least get Christmas chilly.
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My Christmas Day forecast keeps getting warmer. Up to 73 now.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I disagree there. I think the Aleutian ridge is the main problem; blocking real cold our way and keeping the flow off the pacific due to the trough it creates. The -NAO is a secondary help to get us seasonal and wedgy, but I have little faith that it will bring us an actual storm.

To Kylo's point, hopefully it goes poleward and we really improve our situation.
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Yeah the NAO will likely have to go big, and retrograde, with stout and well-positioned low underneath to overcome the blowtorch effects of the Aleutian Ridge -PNA
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s pretty normal for the upstate of SC into Charlotte to get screwed over when there’s a deep coastal cyclone involved. Those rarely work out well for the SW Piedmont of NC into the 85 corridor of SC
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And that cut off can be painfully sharp like January 2000 when you went from a foot of snow down my way to practically nothing north and west of 85
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I disagree there. I think the Aleutian ridge is the main problem; blocking real cold our way and keeping the flow off the pacific due to the trough it creates. The -NAO is a secondary help to get us seasonal and wedgy, but I have little faith that it will bring us an actual storm.

To Kylo's point, hopefully it goes poleward and we really improve our situation.
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The thing I would point out is that we just saw a legit Arctic blast just a few days ago with the Aleutian Ridge in place. Now I’m not saying we should want it to stay there, but we can definitely get cold enough with it in that location
 
Webberweather53 said:
An oldie example of how a west-based -NAO/-PNA can work in our favor if we play things right:

This is the 1922 Knickerbocker Storm which caused a roof collapse to the first movie theater in America. Also dropped 3 feet of snow in Roxboro, just a very slow moving and amped storm.

View attachment 179218
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This -NAO/-PNA regime only works for NC. SC and points west will be mostly dry, unfortunately. We need at least a neutral PNA, BUT positive would be much better!
 
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