lexxnchloe
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12/8/2025 Event - Repeat of Last Week?
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Things don't work like they used to though
I was kind of worried about those increasingly diggy trends halting or reversing slightly as we move in. It will be rate dependent, as we know. Hopefully, it can stay juicy enough to overcome the dry air as that moves in. But I think overall, the Euro has the right footprint.Definitely juicier but also shifted slightly north, warning shots. It did have a little coastal action though noted with slight enhanced accums near coast. Maybe this will trend better, but may only help my area out, sorry not sorry. Hopefully thermals are better and that rn/sn line comes back south
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Nomanslandva
Member
HRDPS ticked up too.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Newest HRRR has a weaker system overall 
Maybe that's a good thing, long range HRRR sucks anyway right? Lol Yeah it still looks ok for you, but mostly a Va storm, lack of precip in NC, except for some slight coastal enhancement (which I'm getting doubtful of).Newest HRRR has a weaker system overall
The 9z RAP (compared to 3z) was a drop for NC folks as well. Virginia looking good. But, still have hope for northern NC.
Bigedd09
Member
Yeah this one is over for most in NC. Unfortunate but hopefully we’ll have some more chances down the road
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lexxnchloe
Member
You give up too soon.
I know people have their thoughts about the NBM, but NWS does rely heavily on it, the blend also did fairly well with the last system (showing very little accums in NC). So with that said, I'm not throwing in the towel just yet....
WolfpackHomer91
Member
that actually Increased a made a more broad area across more of NC. My question is, is the NBM normally 1-2 cycles behind ? Or did I just dream I read that once ?
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SimeonNC
Member
NAM continues to look good imo, this time it has snow all the way down to Northern SC(Rock Hill, Fort Mill, ect). Waiting for the 3K to update.
It is, does not have the 6z suites in it yet. So yeah could definitely level off or reverse unfortunately, also has models in the suite we don't have access too if I'm not mistaken
Early 3k NAM a little more amped.
SimeonNC
Member
12K NAM, HR 27
Great post. I don’t know why we do not discuss the NBM more often, it is like an ensemble mean for all of the models. I suspect it is not posted as much since it will never give a specific poster that big snow amount a specific model may show.
As been mentioned many times, NAM does fairly well with thermals, especially within 48 hrs. So if it's in your camp it's not a bad thing at this range imho.
Hi res NAM trying to get snow all the way to the coast
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Compared to the rest of the 12z CAMs that have come in so far, the HRRR is out on an island.
It has a mixing bias in the BL and doesn’t handle these initial pushes of shallow low level cold air masses that well.
It has a mixing bias in the BL and doesn’t handle these initial pushes of shallow low level cold air masses that well.
Tsappfrog20
Member
3K NAM looks good!!
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NCHighCountryWX
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Official guidance 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
They need to put you on the payroll at the NWS or WPC if you aren’t already
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Worth reminding folks that some of your forcing for ascent to kickoff precip across NC & VA on Monday comes from the Arctic cold front itself. That front being slowed up over VA on the HRRR also means less precip into NC.
My hunch is the HRRR is probably wrong as usual with shallow low level cold air masses
My hunch is the HRRR is probably wrong as usual with shallow low level cold air masses
SimeonNC
Member
I've also noticed the 3K NAM keeps trying to develop a second round of light snow showers after the main event for the Western/Central Piedmont.
Makes me feel a little more hopeful.3K NAM looks good!!
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6z 3k Kuchera:
12z:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cold advection over top of fresh snow cover in VA + melting snow aloft lowering the freezing level + sensible heat transfer from said snow and cold rain falling into the BL + of course layer lifting will eventually flip things to snow across much of NC if there’s real precip
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Regardless of surface temps, once your wet bulb zero heights fall to about 1500 feet AGL or less, most should see a changeover to wet snow.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
We need all the help we can get from a coastal low
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C-Money
Member
GFS and NAM have been consistent with showing a good storm for a lot of NC. Would be nice if they are right and the Euro is just being stubborn. Just don’t want to see tbis fall apart 24 hours out when yesterday it looked pretty positive.
C-Money
Member
WRAL met Chris Michaels said the GFS is trash and the NAM is wrong with the amount of precip. Only calling for a dusting for most in NC and maybe an inch at the VA border.
Do we ever see the broadcast mets go against the euro when it comes to winter weather in NC very often?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We’re 24 hours from this event transpiring, we should not be focused on global models at this point.
C-Money
Member
I don't think so.
C-Money
Member
Can the amount of precip on the NAM be trusted?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
JP152
Member
Gets snow further North into Virginia as well.
RGEM stepping it back, a nice wetter trend IMO
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