Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Rain Cold]

Euro flat and dry at 105. But has a nice vort pass at 117. Dry with it as of right now. Just need the pig to dig.

 

[NBAcentel]

Canadian parallel, don’t know how good this bot is but it went the right direction as well

 

[wow]

It's like we play this scenario over and over in this time frame with potential winter storms.. energy over SW/Mexico ... polar s/w digging down. Will they or won't they? Fully phase or partial? Or completely miss and no precip north of ATL?

 

[KyloG]

Nice thing is don't have to worry about this ripping hard NW with that deep upper low in se Canada.

 

[Webberweather53]

12z EPS is more amped compared to the 0z and yesterday’s 12z runs. Steadily moving towards the more amped GEFS/GFS/CMC camp

 

[LukeBarrette]

12z EPS is more amped compared to the 0z and yesterday’s 12z runs. Steadily moving towards the more amped GEFS/GFS/CMC camp

At this point you gotta be impressed with a rare GFS win. Not locked in yet, but it certainly is interesting that it had the system first.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 177853View attachment 177855
Lmao

12z Euro op day 5-15 temps


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[Webberweather53]

At this point you gotta be impressed with a rare GFS win. Not locked in yet, but it certainly is interesting that it had the system first.

Yeah the GFS has been wiping the floor with the euro out west here this fall with the last several waves.

The persistent mean ridging and generally progressive flow pattern out here has really exposed the Euro’s slow and medium to extended range -PNA bias

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z GFS with the super stretch of the SPV 12/14


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[AJ1013]

Pathetic start to December here

 

[packfan98]

I love this time of year!

 

[NBAcentel]

Damn son

 

[MSnowAtl]

Damn son View attachment 177883View attachment 177884

Its the ICON...nevermind

 

[NBAcentel]

And right on schedule the GFS is losing it. Just can’t have consistency on models or agreement to something can’t we ?

 

[Bigedd09]

And right on schedule the GFS is losing it. Just can’t have consistency on models or agreement to something can’t we ? View attachment 177887

I mean the euro hasn’t budged. It’s just a better model than the gfs


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[packfan98]

And right on schedule the GFS is losing it. Just can’t have consistency on models or agreement to something can’t we ? View attachment 177887

It’s time for the GFS to lose it and start coming back to consensus on Saturday.

 

[NBAcentel]

I mean the euro hasn’t budged. It’s just a better model than the gfs


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Euro is budging tho, towards it, or what was anyways

 

[packfan98]

Euro is budging tho, towards it, or what was anyways View attachment 177888

Yeah, and the EPS meteogram for Greensboro showed a good bump with more members having snow over 12z. I’ll ride with that for now and hope for the best. Fun times!

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Euro flat and dry at 105. But has a nice vort pass at 117. Dry with it as of right now. Just need the pig to dig.

View attachment 177865
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Position of the system isn't bad but one thing's for sure.. We need a major cold air trend to get anything out of this one.

 

[Stevo24]

Why is Chris Justus advertising a warm up I thought that was all but gone?

 

[weather nerd]

Why is Chris Justus advertising a warm up I thought that was all but gone?

He must not be selling out to the whole mjo means cold thing. To be perfectly honest, neither have I. I'm pretty much alone in that though.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

He must not be selling out to the whole mjo means cold thing. To be perfectly honest, neither have I. I'm pretty much alone in that though.

I just have to believe it's going to warm up sometime soon, if not but a few days.

 

[Bigedd09]

Yeah mid December time frame I think we warm up for 4-5 days


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[weather nerd]

Yeah mid December time frame I think we warm up for 4-5 days


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Grok and multiple models suites have said no.

Weather next 2 and a few model suites said yes.

The run to run changes of each model run isn't helping decipher much. What I do know is the mjo is supposed to stay in 8 for a while IF they aren't wrong, and history says freezer but I'm torn

 

[Bigedd09]

Grok and multiple models suites have said no.

Weather next 2 and a few model suites said yes.

The run to run changes if each model runs isn't helping decipher much. What I do know is the mjo is supposed to stay in 8 for a while IF they aren't wrong, and history says freezer but I'm torn

I mean from what I can see is the ensembles generally agree on a mid month warm up with not a ton of huge run to run changes


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[NBAcentel]

Welp the 18z EC/AI isn’t exactly inspiring

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Why is Chris Justus advertising a warm up I thought that was all but gone?

He’s been posting a lot of snow clickbait so far this early winter. On FB. It’s a little unlike him to post “Big Snow!” and it be snow maps and projections for storms accross the Ohio valley. I’m having a hard time understanding it

 

[Chazwin]

I just have to believe it's going to warm up sometime soon, if not but a few days.

I think definitely a day or two of milder temperatures is possible, but with the MJO staying phase 8 to go along with a -NAO, -AO, it wouldn’t be much more than that. Also it looks like the PNA might head positive later next week as well

 

[NBAcentel]

I mean it’s better but it’s getting to that range where drastic trends isn’t as drastic

 

[BIG FROSTY]

I think definitely a day or two of milder temperatures is possible, but with the MJO staying phase 8 to go along with a -NAO, -AO, it wouldn’t be much more than that. Also it looks like the PNA might head positive later next week as well

Yeah, I hope you are correct. I like cold with at least some snow/ice chances...

 

[Chazwin]

I mean from what I can see is the ensembles generally agree on a mid month warm up with not a ton of huge run to run changes


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If you remember though, two weeks ago, the ensembles were generally saying this week would be an all out torch and as late as early last week they were showing +NAO/+AO combo… both are negative right now

 

[weather nerd]

If we can get a negative nao and positive pna in phase 8 we might all get a white Christmas, true talk

 

[Stevo24]

He’s been posting a lot of snow clickbait so far this early winter. On FB. It’s a little unlike him to post “Big Snow!” and it be snow maps and projections for storms accross the Ohio valley. I’m having a hard time understanding it

Yeah I saw that and he’s been taking heat for it. Very unlike him.

 

[Bham 99]

He’s been posting a lot of snow clickbait so far this early winter. On FB. It’s a little unlike him to post “Big Snow!” and it be snow maps and projections for storms accross the Ohio valley. I’m having a hard time understanding it

I joined his new YouTube channel and he's trying to get a broader audience he says that he's got YouTube watchers from all over the country maybe that has something to do with it