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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Bigedd09 said:
I mean from what I can see is the ensembles generally agree on a mid month warm up with not a ton of huge run to run changes


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The same ensembles that have routinely flipped from LR warm ups to cold in the medium range? And has been an ongoing cycle for months now?
 
griteater said:
I at least liked what the AI tried to do. It shoots a lead wave out ahead from OK to Norfolk which brings the weak Deep South / Gulf low out quicker with the baroclinic zone sagging south a bit after it passes. Then it brings in the upper wave with the light snow when the environment east of the mtns is a little colder. Run that scenario with the stronger CMC trailing wave and we’ve got a light snow on our hands. The gulf low running in tandem with the approaching upper wave from the west is fraught with peril for us east of the mountains trying to get rain to turn to snow as precip starts to dry up in a cold advection environment

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You mean the "ol' hoping the cold air gets here before the precipitation splits" isn't your cup of tea? I'm with you. There ain't a lot of Ws in that column.
 
I just took an invigorating walk at the park with middle to low 40s, dewpoints in the high 30s, and no more than a light breeze. This is close to ideal walking wx for me…well except for having the extremely rare snow on the ground to walk on. Nothing beats the soothing feeling of walking on snow!
 
GaWx said:
I just took an invigorating walk at the park with middle to low 40s, dewpoints in the high 30s, and no more than a light breeze. This is close to ideal walking wx for me…well except for having the extremely rare snow on the ground to walk on. Nothing beats the soothing feeling of walking on snow!
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It's just like I told some people in Texas who are upset it's going to warm up

It still could be a lot worse....

I mean it was near 90 here since Halloween

Honestly I don't even hate the idea of a warmup if I wanted wall to wall cold all winter I'd live up north

We get too cold it's gonna be dry here anyway. It's been proven
 
Brent said:
It's just like I told some people in Texas who are upset it's going to warm up

It still could be a lot worse....

I mean it was near 90 here since Halloween

Honestly I don't even hate the idea of a warmup if I wanted wall to wall cold all winter I'd live up north

We get too cold it's gonna be dry here anyway. It's been proven
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I do hope we get at least one decent winter event this winter
 
Twister said:
It's just early Dec Good Grief. I'm waiting on Jan and Feb when we get 90% of winter weather
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Just irritating, that’s all, last winter left a sour taste, and the same tendicies are already occuring. But let’s see if Jan is actually cold lol, MJO should be entering the Indian Ocean by Jan
 
NBAcentel said:
Just irritating, that’s all, last winter left a sour taste, and the same tendicies are already occuring. But let’s see if Jan is actually cold lol, MJO should be entering the Indian Ocean by Jan
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No doubt. The snow drought is absolutely absurd in our area. It’s been a rough several years for people who love snow. Even in phase 8 we still find ways to screw up


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Bigedd09 said:
So, I looked at the 0z CFS to see if there's any hope for optimism but there's not. More of the same ole same ole all the way through the end of December. What an absolute waste of Phase 8. It just doesn't work like it used to
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Why does anybody look at the CFS? That's harder to figure out than where the rain/snow line will set up!
 
I love snow/ice but this time of year I wish most for a cold Christmas (more attainable). I absolutely hate warm/humid Christmas mornings. So, the 6z GFS looks a lot better for December 20th leading up to Christmas.

Previous 0z run:
1764855167585.png

6z run:
1764855288029.png

At this range the GFS is no better than the CFS, but you'd rather see this than not.
 
JB, this morning on the pattern going forward...

The EPO going positive for a bit is allowing Pacific air to make inroads, but it goes back negative again

ecmwf_aifs_ensemble_avg_epo_box_4806400_1.png




Big flip last night in the WPO. its now negative thru mid Jan

ecmwf_weeklies_all2_avg_wpo_box_4720000(1).png




And the euro MJO continues to correct into 8 longer

ECMF_1(19).png






Euro AI ensembles and the actual were colder overnight and I suspect the trend will continue until we see week 3 with cold all over the country and a possible dam burst of extreme cold. Thats been my story, and I am sticking to it

The snow will have to fill in. Obviously, people in the Midwest are off to a great start.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB, this morning on the pattern going forward...

The EPO going positive for a bit is allowing Pacific air to make inroads, but it goes back negative again

ecmwf_aifs_ensemble_avg_epo_box_4806400_1.png




Big flip last night in the WPO. its now negative thru mid Jan

ecmwf_weeklies_all2_avg_wpo_box_4720000(1).png




And the euro MJO continues to correct into 8 longer

ECMF_1(19).png






Euro AI ensembles and the actual were colder overnight and I suspect the trend will continue until we see week 3 with cold all over the country and a possible dam burst of extreme cold. Thats been my story, and I am sticking to it

The snow will have to fill in. Obviously, people in the Midwest are off to a great start.
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Get the cold first ✔️
 
It would be nice if the models would be consistent and show a storm inside 7 days and keep showing it every day until the day it actually gets here. But the best you can hope for is the models showing a storm 7 days out so you know there is at least potential, and then they lose it, and then hope it shows back up again inside 3 days. Either that or a storm popping up for the first time on the models 3 days out. Any other scenario is likely not going to produce an actual winter storm around here.
 
So if we just entered phase 8 yesterday that means it would take 2 weeks for the pattern to kick in? Is that true? That’s what I’ve heard but just wanted to make sure


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Bigedd09 said:
So, I looked at the 0z CFS to see if there's any hope for optimism but there's not. More of the same ole same ole all the way through the end of December. What an absolute waste of Phase 8. It just doesn't work like it used to
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You looked at the CFS through the end of December and determined the future weather? We just went into phase 8, some part of me wants to think there is some lag between conditions and results. You should make forecasts to let us know it will never snow again! Sorry I’m off to banter!
 
Bigedd09 said:
So if we just entered phase 8 yesterday that means it would take 2 weeks for the pattern to kick in? Is that true? That’s what I’ve heard but just wanted to make sure


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No because the maps that average colder than normal during phase 8 are based on temps during that period as opposed to being based on a lag. And the 10 day maps starting today are quite cold for the E US overall, especially the NE and Midwest, thus fitting the cold phase 8 tendency:

IMG_5888.pngIMG_5889.png
 
GaWx said:
No because the maps that average colder than normal during phase 8 are based on temps during that period as opposed to being based on a lag. And the 10 day maps starting today are quite cold for the E US overall, thus fitting the cold phase 8 tendency:

View attachment 177947View attachment 177948
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Thanks, I was confused on that. Could've sworn I've heard it takes 2 weeks
 
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