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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 šŸŽ„ ā„ļø

NBAcentel said:
Man only if the western ridge was taller. Not gonna be easy with how the flow is, -NAO is trying to slow things down but the trough over AK trough Canada is pancaking the western ridge, and making the flow faster, not a huge believer in this one tbh, but I could be wrong and I hope I am, the surface pattern is mint honestly with the trailing high following the low in SE Canada but if thereā€™s issues itā€™s the wave itself View attachment 177790View attachment 177791
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Plus, the GFS verbatim shows a rain-to-snow transition, which raises some red flags.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Plus, the GFS verbatim shows a rain-to-snow transition, which raises some red flags.
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We made December 2018 with scraps. EPO, NAO, and AO was positive Iā€™m pretty sure. All we had in our hand was a +PNA and 50/50 low and it got the job done, shockingly. Not an ideal probability next week, but certainly something to watch IMO
 
trackersacker said:
We made December 2018 with scraps. EPO, NAO, and AO was positive Iā€™m pretty sure. All we had in our hand was a +PNA and 50/50 low and it got the job done, shockingly. Not an ideal probability next week, but certainly something to watch IMO
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But in December 2018, we had a monster wave from the Pacific that models had spotted 10 days out, which crashed into Southern California. That one was oddly predictable and consistent. Most of our storms, which are wishy-washy and hard to predict because they come down the Idaho stovepipe, require precise timing and amplification.

If I had a nickel for every time the GFS overamplified and dropped a paste bomb, I would have a lot of nickels. If I had a nickel for the amount of time that those solutions verified, I would be a broke man. I am a weenie, so I'm going to stalk out the Euro and GDPS runs, but I sadly think December 2018 is a false comparison.

Although anything is possible with a 50/50 low and a +PNA. So who knows.
 
Sucks weā€™re gonna miss out on this one Friday for being too warm. Then cold enough next week but no precipitation. Classic southeast winters. Oh well


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Ollie Williams said:
But in December 2018, we had a monster wave from the Pacific that models had spotted 10 days out, which crashed into Southern California. That one was oddly predictable and consistent. Most of our storms, which are wishy-washy and hard to predict because they come down the Idaho stovepipe, require precise timing and amplification.

If I had a nickel for every time the GFS overamplified and dropped a paste bomb, I would have a lot of nickels. If I had a nickel for the amount of time that those solutions verified, I would be a broke man. I am a weenie, so I'm going to stalk out the Euro and GDPS runs, but I sadly think December 2018 is a false comparison.

Although anything is possible with a 50/50 low and a +PNA. So who knows.
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Those are fair points. And Iā€™m not analoging it much at this point. Itā€™s only been a couple of runs with something, so it remains low probability.
 
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Euro was further offshore with the Monday system. The GFS is doing GFS things with a rain to snow changeover. Still would like to see more agreement from other models.


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In general, thereā€™s nothing wrong pattern wise with this day 5-6 system. The western ridges usually arenā€™t super tall with coastal low type events anyway.

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You really just need a nice trough axis centered over the TN Valley, a good cold source, & a -NAO and we have those things available here, it doesnā€™t have to be perfect or look exactly like the composite to work. Iā€™ve almost seen more instances of the pattern looking almost exactly like the composite and it not working than the other way around. Thereā€™s a lot of internal or storm to storm variability thatā€™s not captured by this

IMG_6765.png


You really need the wave to be a little slower like the GEFS shows (so we can get a bit more moisture and amp the wave a bit) and this can work just fine

IMG_6763.png

If the southern mid Atlantic sees some decent snowfall from the preceding system on Fri and Sat, we wouldnā€™t have to work that hard to get legitimate cold air transported in place at the right time
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Webberweather53 said:
Itā€™s the first week of December and we have one potential minor event on Fri for NW NC and VA followed by another possible system trying to sneak into the fold on Monday or so.

Not to mention, things are trended colder in the long-term

Canā€™t ask for much more at this point.
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Right? We're probably gonna have our second flizzard of the week tomorrow I mean there's been at least one or maybe two years since I've been here it hasnt even snowed yet at all

Even if we warm up well we warm up every winter šŸ˜‚ we live in the south
 
Webberweather53 said:
Itā€™s the first week of December and we have one potential minor event on Fri for NW NC and VA followed by another possible system trying to sneak into the fold on Monday or so.

Not to mention, things are trended colder in the long-term

Canā€™t ask for much more at this point.
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Amen x1000. Well stated
 
Webberweather53 said:
Itā€™s the first week of December and we have one potential minor event on Fri for NW NC and VA followed by another possible system trying to sneak into the fold on Monday or so.

Not to mention, things are trended colder in the long-term

Canā€™t ask for much more at this point.
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It's a healthy start to Winter & aligned with what we always thought on December a couple months ago.
 
šŸ¤” we've been trending the wrong way here for 3 days so this is interesting. I still would be surprised to see much more than Monday but we'll seeFB_IMG_1764768651624.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS actually sniffed out the Friday system before the Euro did. Granted it was probably way too aggressive with snow but it caught onto the idea first. Wouldnā€™t be shocked if that happens here as well
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Didn't the GFS sniff out that early December event last year as well? I guess it's possible lol
 
Brent said:
Yeah Mondays freezing drizzle was a big surprise to some people. Apparently the state didn't think it was worth it to treat the roads and several people died in accidents

The snow was literally 10 minutes of flakes hours later
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Haha yeh brother something about your area & moisture being undermodeled lol
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
9f0161fdcd5ac8677318e295008f62a7.jpg

61cab866f9cf282ba36bb520d5fbe860.jpg

Ensembles keep correcting colder in the long range, imagine thatā€¦ 12 hour model cycle difference


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Maybe because it looks like it's extending the jet substantially and getting a nicer -EPO perhaps? Split vortex and conus wide trough. I think we work with that right? Verbatim this is warm south, but it doesn't look far from unleashing cold cross polar flow. If we can get the epo ridge to connect to the Scandinavian ridge, watch out.

I can't figure out how to post a trend, but the jet is definitely extending now going out in time on the EPS.

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GFS is not backing down on next Monday. Would love to see the Euro on board. However, this Friday's deal the GFS was pretty consistent with something wintry here while the Euro went from wintry to rain and back more wintry like the GFS. Maybe the GFS will get the upset win.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS actually sniffed out the Friday system before the Euro did. Granted it was probably way too aggressive with snow but it caught onto the idea first. Wouldnā€™t be shocked if that happens here as well
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If memory serves, we were dumping on the GFS for being too amped and unlike the flat EURO. This is a similar situation.
 
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