By December 7.
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I like that you had an actual date
NBAcentel
Member
Euro is really close now 
The one thing that tends to trend our way is CAD.
Bigedd09
Member
For real that’s what I’m saying lol. All I see is a warm up on modeling as we had to mid December. And Alan Huffman said that too
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro continues to progress the trough more compared to last night.
Earlier onset of precipitation here would be critical in favoring more ZR as we’d be able to line up better with the surface high to the north and time things up better diurnally (late overnight to early morning onset vs mid-late afternoon in earlier slower runs).
I haven't heard anything official, but folks that get below freezing tonight should beware of icy bridges tomorrow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A 1030+ mb surface high moving over top fresh snow cover over the Interior NE US is usually a recipe for ice in the west-central Piedmont and foothills of NC & VA.
The EPS ZR probs look realistic to me with moderate chances along/NW of I-85
The EPS ZR probs look realistic to me with moderate chances along/NW of I-85
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The entire euro suite (Op, ENS, and AI) were all about 2-3 degrees colder at the surface on the 18Z run compared to 12Z
C-Money
Member
Hard for me to be excited about a winter storm if the GFS shows it and the Euro doesn't. If the Euro has one inside 7 days and the GFS doesn't I would feel more excited about it. Usually the Euro leads the way and all the others follow, not the other way around. But even with the Euro I wouldn't feel good about the chances unless it was inside 7 days at least.
I would remind you that 2 weeks ago, modeling said we were gonna be full on blow torch this week
Bigedd09
Member
NCSNOW
Member
0z Icon and GFS starting to fold,line up with King Euro for Friday.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Euro went colder at 18Z so I’m not so sure.
Brent
Member
Starting December with very light sleet here lol maybe even a couple flakes though I haven't seen any
There is a window for a snow shower around evening rush hour maybe...
There is a window for a snow shower around evening rush hour maybe...
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Met1985
Member
People say this but then forget how hard and how long it takes to break down that type of pattern. Not really sure about a significant warm up mid month depending on the MJO progression.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the real problem with the late week system in the overnight model runs is the wave continued to speed up plus the SE Canada Vortex dug down more.
Just flattens and shreds everything to a point where it’s hard to get much moist SWly flow aloft going
Just flattens and shreds everything to a point where it’s hard to get much moist SWly flow aloft going
sure glad we didn't start a thread. Might not even be any type of precipitation, including rain, to the system people were watching
Brent
Member
That's what happened here with the current storm too it's barely got any moisture. Wednesday someone famous on air in OKC said it would definitely snow lol and mentioned heavy snow
I feel like we're heading the same way with the end of the week
NCSNOW
Member
We ride lol! Gonna be a Northern Stream dominant pattern. These EC troughs just keep coming, really should help us out up this way
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Colder but drier.
Bigedd09
Member
It's really a lose lose lol
I see NOTHING on last night's runs as far as the 
can see... Unless I missed something. Even the CFS doesn't have anything close to a fantasy storm. lol
can see... Unless I missed something. Even the CFS doesn't have anything close to a fantasy storm. lolBigedd09
Member
CFS hasn't had many fantasy runs at all. Been lackluster so far in terms of fantasy runs. How depressingI see NOTHING on last night's runs as far as the
Oconeexman
Member
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looks awfully "torchy" mid december on ensembles...no bueno for phase 8
Met1985
Member
Models have been awful in the midrange this season. Even the Ensembles have been jumpy.
Well that can’t happen with phase 8 can it? If not then I guess the models are wrong or we aren’t really getting to phase 8.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Not surprised that the GEFS is making better adjustments with the H5 pattern late next week.
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Brent
Member
Lol. Sleet
rburrel2
Member
I actually love how cold and suppressed the 06z euro is. All we need now is a tick stronger with the lead wave for a solid event.
Yeh I guess people talking torch are looking at operational runs
Not surprised that the GEFS is making better adjustments with the H5 pattern late next week.
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28.8 degrees this morning. I guess I can't claim frozen rain on the cars as winter precip.
If the thread was started we would be tracking a monster Winter Storm. Unreal. Y’all gotta up your positivity game. Only way to do this is to force these storms into reality with overwhelming optimism.
Bigedd09
Member
How did the overnight MJO forecasts look?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
It’s probably going to take several days for models to reveal some cold runs once MJO reaches P8 imo, someone correct me if I’m wrong.
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usually a ten day to two week lag if I am remembering correctly.
Met1985
Member
Looks like money dude!
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