Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[NCSNOW]

This is the look (from Dec 2002 ) that will get you hammered. For reference

 

[Brent]

That's pretty significant for that far out here


- At least low potential for impactful winter weather early next
week. Please monitor forecast updates as more details become
available.

 

[NBAcentel]

GFS is off its meds tonight

 

[Webberweather53]

Huh, guess I wasn’t crazy after all for thinking we’d actually have some +PNA in early December.

I however wasn’t expecting the +TNH to go this crazy right off the bat and just completely nuke the -NAO in the process.

 

[NCwx1992]

GFS is off its meds tonight View attachment 177237

the GFS absolutely wants this thing to happen lol

but this is basically the ONE timeframe i really dont want something wintry to happen in december because i have to drive from NC to DC next wednesday AM for work

 

[NBAcentel]

we legitimately aren’t far from something here, especially for CAD regions. Drop the northern stream trough further south to entrench colder air especially the more shallow stuff (and slowing it down some could help as well) and then send the trailing wave into it. If we see a trend to a more dug in northern stream trough, we likely start seeing winter storm runs. It’s really not that far off. The digging of the trough also helps suppress the height field some after it swings through. I highly doubt the GFS solution and it has no ens support, if we was to see something show up, it would probably be a dirty set up.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

The torch forecast is looking swell


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[Brent]

Remembers last week when there was no cold air anytime soon

 

[CaryWx]

The torch forecast is looking swell


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That's a nice snow pack build temp across the north & east for early Dec

 

[trackersacker]

For the meteorologists on Twitter bragging about using ensembles and not being surprised about changes in the guidance, I really don’t know why given ensembles have been nearly just as bad.

 

[Brent]

Remembers last week when there was no cold air anytime soon

It's funny to me see people backing off now because the second wave has largely disappeared but again it's day 6... Who in the world can even predict precip that far out the same people said it wouldn't even be cold at all!!!

I mean I will say usually when arctic air floods us the snow underperforms anyway but that's a different storyline and it wouldn't surprise me if it happens again(every cold storm since February 21). We're also in that range where the models get weird and lose the storm so it could just be a phase

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Guess we'll have to wait a little longer gang.

 

[Mitch West]

Man… the atmosphere really locked in for us. What a stud.

 

[LittleMountain]

I only hope that this cold pattern trying to take hold in early December doesn’t lead to the return of the ridge in Late Dec/Christmas timeframe.

 

[Stevo24]

I only hope that this cold pattern trying to take hold in early December doesn’t lead to the return of the ridge in Late Dec/Christmas timeframe.

IF the MJO does what it’s supposed to do that shouldn’t be an issue.

 

[SnowNiner]

Loop de loop in 7. But in the freezer spot per Larry afterwards (late dec/early jan). It better not cut through and come out on 3 though. I'll crash out.

 

[Bigedd09]

Loop de loop in 7. But in the freezer spot per Larry afterwards (late dec/early jan). It better not cut through and come out on 3 though. I'll crash out.

View attachment 177259

Oh no the dreaded COD

 

[SnowNiner]

Oh no the dreaded COD

COD is really good in 8 per @GaWx research. Left side of COD is good, I just don't want it B lining to the Indian Ocean/Maritime.

 

[Tarheel1]

 

[NCSNOW]

Tuesday LP could slug through a 100 miles further SE across GA out into Atlantic, we'd luck up.
Canadian and Ukmet are the closest. GFS and Euro just a bit wide left last night.

 

[NCSNOW]

Bastardi and all the yanks gonna be loving the latest GFS. Theres your "lay the white carpet down first" crowds ammo. I don't want any excuses when the next shot rolls around lol.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro out through 15 days. Congrats North Florida



GFS out through 15 days

 

[RBR71]

Tuesday LP could slug through a 100 miles further SE across GA out into Atlantic, we'd luck up.
Canadian and Ukmet are the closest. GFS and Euro just a bit wide left last night.

View attachment 177263

View attachment 177262

Right where we want it, SE trend is the new friend. NW trend has failed us lately, so why not? Let's do it!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Loop de loop in 7. But in the freezer spot per Larry afterwards (late dec/early jan). It better not cut through and come out on 3 though. I'll crash out.

View attachment 177259

Looks like the mjo is taking the shortcut to the Maritime side for January. Hopefully, we get an 8-1-2 progression through most of January instead.

 

[Chazwin]

Been really busy at work the last several days so I’m just now looking close at model changes and I don’t recall models changing from a torch to a cold pattern like this so quickly since December 2017 and we know how that ended up playing out

 

[Bigedd09]

12z icon was really close to an ice storm in cad regions next week

 

[JP152]

 

[wow]

Ducks. Pond.

 

[Mitch West]

Low energy in here. So I am going to spam with awesome GFS runs.

 

[Oconeexman]

Low energy in here. So I am going to spam with awesome GFS runs. View attachment 177273View attachment 177274

Yessa nice wedge event 2 runs in a row...fun to look at!

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Low energy in here. So I am going to spam with awesome GFS runs. View attachment 177273View attachment 177274

All we need is the northern trough to trend stronger and back the western ridge up a bit, we might see something.


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[NBAcentel]

The AIFS ens is excited about next week

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

So, should I feel as confident in my .1 inch of snow here in Walton County, Georgia, as people on oil rigs in the central Gulf?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Good sign for things to come. Perhaps incoming cold has a more suppressive punch to it then what models were originally thinking

 

[Rain Cold]

What is happening to our wave?

 

[NCSNOW]

Gonna get inside 8 and die/lye there all winter

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

What is happening to our wave?

View attachment 177279
View attachment 177280

I'm not sure the GEFS could draw it up any better. The EURO isn't too shabby either, although it hints at a shortcut through the COD to the MC side.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro, Icon, Can Heard my request for futher ots on next weeks LP. GFS is outlier with the big noreaster. Models flop around like fish nowadays

12z Euro




12z Icon

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Euro, Icon, Can Heard my request for futher ots on next weeks LP. GFS is outlier with the big noreaster. Models flop around like fish nowadays

12z Euro

View attachment 177281


12z Icon

View attachment 177282

Thread the needle type pattern, very active pattern ahead for sure.


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[LukeBarrette]

Seems to be another system models are picking up on around Day 10