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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

GaWx said:
Eric,
How have you done in NM since you moved there relative to climo? How much is your climo and how much snow have you received?
Also, have you gotten any yet this autumn?
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We’ve done okay ish I would say overall, we have yet to have any snow though. Just had our first precipitation event since early October a few days ago. Earlier this year it snowed on my birthday so that was nice. Our last 4” winter storm warning worthy storm was back in 2015, tho Feb 2021 got close in a few spots. Any accumulating snow is a really big deal down in the Desert Lowlands & people go crazy over it here like they do in the southeast.

The climatology here since the early 2000s is roughly about the same as places like Charlotte, NC. It used to snow a lot more here several decades ago but our average has cratered. Our last 1+ foot event that I’m aware of was back in Feb 1988. We also got 25” here back in December 1987 which stranded some folks for 3-4 days at the office here 👀
 
If I want to have any chance at a substantial (3-4”+) snow down here in southern NM, gotta see something like the Euro AIFS pan out.

Need a little chunk of this Baffin Bay polar vortex to get tangled up into our trough to help inject a bit more cold air into the pattern

IMG_6700.jpeg


Also need the mid to upper low track to look something like this. Send it down the heart of the Great Basin/just west of I-15 and get it to dive south of the International Border. That would be ideal here.
IMG_6695.png


For me to score something decent, the upper low needs to be close enough to the high plains to where it can encourage the cold air to “ backdoor” across the Sacramento mtns here. The pressures lowering underneath the upper trough would help increase the pressure gradient across the mtns just enough to force the cold air westward towards the Rio Grande Valley.

The upper low also needs to be far enough to the SW to gather pacific moisture. If however the upper comes further east right down the Rockies, it’s just going to be cold and dry for the most part with maybe some light snow showers. If the upper low goes way to the SW along or just off the West Coast, the cold air never gets here and it just rains instead.

Such a delicate tightrope

IMG_6701.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
What do I have to do to make this verify

4” mean 🤩

View attachment 177112
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My stepson and his family are heading to the Albuquerque area for Christmas this year where his wife's family lives. I think the odds are better that they will see a White Christmas than us poor souls stuck in the RDU area.
 
While the GEFS and EPS have waffled back and forth a lot, the AIFS ensemble hasn’t blinked here for the most part. Still the best looking model suite for snow here at the beginning of December
 
MRKEVIN7575 said:
Looks good for you Brent. Im hopeful more of us in the south will have our opportunities also!
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If this actually is somewhat legit here I wouldn't even worry about it... Y'all need snow pack to the northwest anyway to have a shot at anything

I'm not really that concerned about it.. it's Thanksgiving week and we don't even know for sure what next week looks like 🤣

Y'all worried about the mjo weeks from now there's no point in stressing over it. Last week some very prominent people here said we had no cold air anytime soon. Things change

Heck somebody just posted here it could be east of us again 🤣🤣🤣 y'all need to calm down
 
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👀 again how active the pattern is is more what I'm noticing whether the cold actually lines up right or not for an actual winter storm... I mean yesterday was the 3rd day it rained in the last 5FB_IMG_1764077975791.jpg
 
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