Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Webberweather53]

Going to be a long wait around here, from the looks of things. The models look pretty bad lately for that fast start to winter that was being widely depicted a week or so ago.

IF the MJO gets to P8 around mid-December (the way it looks now), the pattern likely won't reflect that for the next few days after. Then again, all of this could change back tomorrow.

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Something I didn’t pick up on a few weeks ago but have noticed lately is the fact that your upper level wind component of the MJO (zonal 200mb winds) is really lagging behind in phase 6-7.

I think that’s important here because the upper level winds is what ultimately links the MJO to extratropical teleconnections.

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/

 

[256wx]

Are things still trending towards a week La Niña/more neutral conditions? Sorry for the noob question- lots to learn here from just reading and trying to connect the dots of cause/effect.

 

[tennessee storm]

Cold air is gonna dump. Who is it gonna take a dump on.

Out west. Book it

 

[Brent]

Are things still trending towards a week La Niña/more neutral conditions? Sorry for the noob question- lots to learn here from just reading and trying to connect the dots of cause/effect.

Looks like. I saw someone just talking about El Nino next year for hurricane season lol so yeah

 

[Rain Cold]

Something I didn’t pick up on a few weeks ago but have noticed lately is the fact that your upper level wind component of the MJO (zonal 200mb winds) is really lagging behind in phase 6-7.

I think that’s important here because the upper level winds is what ultimately links the MJO to extratropical teleconnections.

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/

View attachment 177047

That's unfortunate. Why can't the upper level winds lead for once.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Going to be a long wait around here, from the looks of things. The models look pretty bad lately for that fast start to winter that was being widely depicted a week or so ago.

IF the MJO gets to P8 around mid-December (the way it looks now), the pattern likely won't reflect that for the next few days after. Then again, all of this could change back tomorrow.

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It's worth remembering that we are not yet in phase 7. I'm not so sure that a slow progression in phase seven on the doorstep of eight is a bad signal.

While the SE ridge will no doubt be an issue, with so much cold air forecasted to be on our side of the planet, I suspect that while we may average above average in the first 2-3 weeks of December, we will likely see some big mid-latitude cyclones that drive the cold into the SE more than one would expect. Big variability rather than sustained warmth or cold is what I think is most likely.

 

[J.C.]

I'm all good with this thing being delayed until mid December, Christmas to mid January is our coldest temps by average.

What would be nice is a storm ride that SE ridge either on the front side or the back side pattern shift right along the coast and up.

 

[griteater]

While interesting, it probably isn't going to help the pattern for the southeast that much. Correct? idk

We haven't had very many of these early warmings that reach, or get close to, SSW level....but the ones that have this type of look have tended to produce a blocking period down the line that maximizes, say, 3-5 weeks later. But if this goes all reflective with just some SPV stretching, then that lowers the probability of the strat contributing to a blocking pattern - though it could still help with western ridge / conus cold pattern as MJO improves.

From Dec 2000, black line here is when the warming approached, but didn't quite reach, 0 zonal winds (SSW). Blue boxes are blocking in the troposphere

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'm all good with this thing being delayed until mid December, Christmas to mid January is our coldest temps by average.

What would be nice is a storm ride that SE ridge either on the front side or the back side pattern shift right along the coast and up.

Mid December is fine. I just don’t want it to be delayed until January. It would suck for the entire holiday season to be warm.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

We haven't had very many of these early warmings that reach, or get close to, SSW level....but the ones that have this type of look have tended to produce a blocking period down the line that maximizes, say, 3-5 weeks later. But if this goes all reflective with just some SPV stretching, then that lowers the probability of the strat contributing to a blocking pattern - though it could still help with western ridge / conus cold pattern as MJO improves.

From Dec 2000, black line here is when the warming approached, but didn't quite reach, 0 zonal winds (SSW). Blue boxes are blocking in the troposphereView attachment 177048

Thank you for the reply on this. Very interesting, especially since I never even heard of this kind of SSW "reflective"

 

[Webberweather53]

When the warmest mean SSTs are ~160E in the equatorial pacific, you’re often going to get spammed with +TNH. The MJO is really just reinforcing that lower frequency/seasonal tendency very heavily of course atm

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro ai has been getting its wedge on in the LR that’s for sure

 

[Webberweather53]

Even a few weeks ago, I definitely underestimated just how quickly this winter would dip into the ‘ol well of -EPO/+TNH patterns we’ve seen so frequently the last 10-15 years.

This pattern is honestly only going to get stronger and more frequent later in winter when the polar vortex intensifies (makes wave reflection more effective) & the warm pool starts zonally advecting east in response to our current MJO-driven westerly wind burst

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[Mitch West]

Even a few weeks ago, I definitely underestimated just how quickly this winter would dip into the ‘ol well of -EPO/+TNH patterns we’ve seen so frequently the last 10-15 years.

This pattern is honestly only going to get stronger and more frequent later in winter when the polar vortex intensifies (makes wave reflection more effective) & the warm pool starts zonally advecting east in response to our current MJO-driven westerly wind burst

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View attachment 177059

I’m calling the authorities

 

[MSnowAtl]

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Looks like La Nina!

 

[griteater]

Even a few weeks ago, I definitely underestimated just how quickly this winter would dip into the ‘ol well of -EPO/+TNH patterns we’ve seen so frequently the last 10-15 years.

This pattern is honestly only going to get stronger and more frequent later in winter when the polar vortex intensifies (makes wave reflection more effective) & the warm pool starts zonally advecting east in response to our current MJO-driven westerly wind burst

View attachment 177058

View attachment 177059

2 Points:

1 - Looking at the MJO in 13-14, it was really quiet from Nov to Feb (mostly COD). So, those warm WPac SSTs were running the show it looks like

2 - I would think that Jan would be the best month for +TNH cold influence in the SE with the winter wavelengths being longest / broadest then

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Even a few weeks ago, I definitely underestimated just how quickly this winter would dip into the ‘ol well of -EPO/+TNH patterns we’ve seen so frequently the last 10-15 years.

This pattern is honestly only going to get stronger and more frequent later in winter when the polar vortex intensifies (makes wave reflection more effective) & the warm pool starts zonally advecting east in response to our current MJO-driven westerly wind burst

View attachment 177058

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So if I'm understanding you correct, get use to the current pattern? Another sucky winter.....

 

[POWERSTROKE]

So if I'm understanding you correct, get use to the current pattern? Another sucky winter.....

Give it another week, and models will change again. Weather in the good ole Southeast

 

[Webberweather53]

2 Points:

1 - Looking at the MJO in 13-14, it was really quiet from Nov to Feb (mostly COD). So, those warm WPac SSTs were running the show it looks like

2 - I would think that Jan would be the best month for +TNH cold influence in the SE with the winter wavelengths being longest / broadest then

February could be interesting this year and has a chance to break the stereotypical nina mold if the warm pool advances east quick enough.

If you divide up Nina winters into +PNA and -PNA febs, the +PNA group is warmer in the central pacific/has a more eastward shifted warm pool. We will have to see how much the ocean responds to this MJO event. I can imagine it’s probably going to be a big response given the IOD collapse and how prolonged and strong this WWB event is

 

[Webberweather53]

2 Points:

1 - Looking at the MJO in 13-14, it was really quiet from Nov to Feb (mostly COD). So, those warm WPac SSTs were running the show it looks like

2 - I would think that Jan would be the best month for +TNH cold influence in the SE with the winter wavelengths being longest / broadest then

Yeah I also suspect the westerly QBO played a major role in keeping the MJO suppressed in 2013-14. This year is very different in that regard.

 

[trackersacker]

February could be interesting this year and has a chance to break the stereotypical nina mold if the warm pool advances east quick enough.

If you divide up Nina winters into +PNA and -PNA febs, the +PNA group is warmer in the central pacific/has a more eastward shifted warm pool. We will have to see how much the ocean responds to this MJO event. I can imagine it’s probably going to be a big response given the IOD collapse and how prolonged and strong this WWB event is

05-06 was one of my favored nina analogs this year. February went snowy that year, but most of my analogs are mild February

 

[Mitch West]

A little better at the very end of the EPS & GEFS.

 

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies vs yesterday:

12/1-7: very slightly cooler but still torchy/strong SER
12/8-14: very slightly warmer/still mild/weaker SER
12/15-21: slightly cooler; NN to slightly AN
12/22-28: very slightly cooler N NC/still NN
12/29-1/4: ~same/still NN

Summary: still mild 1st half Dec; still cools to NN 2nd half into very early Jan

 

[Mitch West]

Euro Weeklies vs yesterday:

12/1-7: very slightly cooler but still torchy/strong SER
12/8-14: very slightly warmer/still mild/weaker SER
12/15-21: slightly cooler; NN to slightly AN
12/22-28: very slightly cooler N NC/still NN
12/29-1/4: ~same/still NN

Summary: still mild 1st half Dec; still cools to NN 2nd half into very early Jan

Thank you my brother

 

[TriplePhaser]

A little better at the very end of the EPS & GEFS.
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Though the Euro is dead wrong with Alaska/Western Canada given MJO and Equator shifted jet extension.

 

[Brent]

Today is the first below normal day we've had in a long time

 

[Twister]

Today is the first below normal day we've had in a long time

BN must be nice, it was 80° here today

 

[Brent]

BN must be nice, it was 80° here today

Oh believe me... It was almost 90 here last weekend. We've been there done that at this point. Some places had their latest temperature above 85 on record

It's probably still gonna be the hottest November here ever because this ain't even cold

 

[TileDude]

Record high of 81 today in Birmingham. I’m thankful we got that cold snap and freeze back around Halloween or we would be mowing grass into December.

 

[Brent]

Record high of 81 today in Birmingham. I’m thankful we got that cold snap and freeze back around Halloween or we would be mowing grass into December.

I've still seen things flying around here even after that

And the lawn guys were out at my complex the other day

 

[lexxnchloe]

LC

 

[Tarheel1]

We still good? Or do we suck??

 

[Brent]

We still good? Or do we suck??View attachment 177069

It may be short lived(because it's so early) but yeah there's a lot more chatter locally than there has been

Even some of the people who said no way are caving already and it's still 9 days away

It sounds like typical Arctic air here tbh aka the models will struggle and it will come in faster

Also AccuWeather is pretty chilly and active later in December considering it usually doesnt show anything interesting at that range. It just hangs close to average and never shows any real weather but it is now

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

FWIW, the ICON has a rather interesting look at the end of its run. A retreating wedge, 1040HP driving a front down the plains, and trough in the SW that looks poised to move east.

 

[Tarheel1]

Pattern changer… that’s a deep low!

 

[Mitch West]

I am not even close to sold that this trough to kick start December is going to drop as West as we thought. 06 Euro AI continues to show a shifting East. Been flirting with it for a day or so now.

 

[Brent]

I am not even close to sold that this trough to kick start December is going to drop as West as we thought. 06 Euro AI continues to show a shifting East. Been flirting with it for a day or so now.

Yeah I kind of find it hard to believe it basically stops around here if the models are right about how significant it is

We know the history of Arctic air and the models anyway... It's a famous tale here... They are always too slow

 

[Mitch West]

Yeah I kind of find it hard to believe it basically stops around here if the models are right about how significant it is

We know the history of Arctic air and the models anyway... It's a famous tale here

I think this pattern coming up is extremely volatile.

 

[Brent]

I think this pattern coming up is extremely volatile.

Exactly I saw people jumping aboard yesterday here that said we had no cold air anytime soon a few days ago clearly they are seeing it too. Especially considering this is still a week out