CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Wagons south with that ridge, we’ll take all the good moves we can get.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wagons south with that ridge, we’ll take all the good moves we can get.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Bigedd09
Member
That 12z euro was brutal with the SE RIDGE
Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal wind mean is slightly weaker early and allows most to reverse unlike yesterday. However, afterwards it looks like yesterday’s significantly stronger run:
Today’s
Yesterday’s:
Two days ago: significantly weaker
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHLAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWD
Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday for SE US are ~same for 12/1-14 with a strong SER 12/1-7 followed by a slow weakening of it to a weaker 12/8-14. But 12/15-21 is slightly cooler with NN instead of slightly warmer than normal. 12/22-28 is slightly cooler with still NN most of SE but slightly colder than normal N NC. The new week, 12/29-1/4 is NN in the SE.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I guess areas east of the Apps will have to wait until December to get some cooler air !
That sounds great to everyone east of the Apps.
though the gates of the arctic knock at her door, she will not be denied!
A whopping nearly 80% of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged colder than normal at Raleigh though with lots of variation. When amplitude is <1.5, that rises even further to 85% along with an average of 5.0 F BN. If it’s a pretty strong amplitude (1.5+), it actually averaged only 0.5 F BN at Raleigh. Fortunately, most Dec phase 8 are <1.5 amp.
The coldest Dec phase 8 periods at RDU were all with <1.5 amp:
- 13 F BN 12/9-18/1989: 1.9” mix/ZR (2 events)
- 13 F BN 12/5-9/2002: a major ZR
- 12 F BN 12/20-25/1995 no wintry precip
The coldest Dec phase 8 periods at RDU were all with <1.5 amp:
- 13 F BN 12/9-18/1989: 1.9” mix/ZR (2 events)
- 13 F BN 12/5-9/2002: a major ZR
- 12 F BN 12/20-25/1995 no wintry precip
Bigedd09
Member
Tough pattern ahead for the southeast
Thanks goodness this far out we really have no idea.
Bigedd09
Member
The SE ridge is quite resilient on the 6z GEFS
Good combination here! We need the rain! A lot of D1-D2 conditions here as of yesterday! 
Good ole knot in phase 7.
Bigedd09
Member
Wish there could be a knot in phase 8 lol. Looking at this we will have to kick the can till January. Go figure
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Bad combination. D4 (Exceptional Drought) in Extreme Southern Georgia and no rain in sight !
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The low-level (850 mb) wind is what's really driving the MJO into phase 8 at least on the GFS/GEFS & CFS
One reason I really love looking at hovmoller diagrams (like the Euro weekly forecast below) is you can easily spot some of the reasons behind why the RMM MJO does these "loop de loops". A lot of that in this case has to do with convectively coupled kelvin waves quickly amplifying and damping as they move in and out of the MJO envelope
One reason I really love looking at hovmoller diagrams (like the Euro weekly forecast below) is you can easily spot some of the reasons behind why the RMM MJO does these "loop de loops". A lot of that in this case has to do with convectively coupled kelvin waves quickly amplifying and damping as they move in and out of the MJO envelope
While here in the SE it appears certain we will be waiting impatiently for cold weather the first week of December, the stage is being set for good times shortly thereafter IMO. We're replacing the currently above-normal temps across the whole of the N. The American Continent with much-below-normal temperatures across the whole of Canada and the US Midwest while laying down snowcover and accelerating Hudson Bay and Great Lakes icing.
Winter is coming.
Winter is coming.
The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010:
Here are the respective Dec MJOs:
1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong
1985: almost all inside COD
1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong
2000:almost all just outside or inside COD
2005: all inside COD
2010: all just outside or in COD
What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD.
Regarding the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: note how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured
Here are the respective Dec MJOs:
1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong
1985: almost all inside COD
1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong
2000:almost all just outside or inside COD
2005: all inside COD
2010: all just outside or in COD
What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD.
Regarding the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: note how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured
Attachments
NCSNOW
Member
Good stuff Gawx. Appreciate
SnowNiner
Member
Seems to be the sweet spot from your research, low phase 8, COD on the 8 side. Hopefully that comes to fruition. The models right now are just saying phase 7 is not it for the SE. Pacific jet does not want to push east and is a little nubby, causing the SE ridge to keep us nice and warm while the mid west gets nice and cold (classic -EPO/-PNA). Need that to extend east to HI and all the reds in AK/out west to kick east.
In two weeks though when December actually starts, I bet it completely different, one way or another. Hopefully to a classic weak 8.
not breaking any news here, just pretty remarkable to me how well things line up with mjo phase and current 8-14 day analogs. simply taking the current top ten of those, you get a noticable SER signal for Dec
throw january in the pot and it starts to even out. january alone is within 0.5F for the SER zones and BN for the rest of the country
throw january in the pot and it starts to even out. january alone is within 0.5F for the SER zones and BN for the rest of the country
AJ1013
Member
Presented without comment...
Starting to smell another good Texarkana snowstorm for them first half of DecemberPresented without comment...
the good news is, the latest AIFS is the most aggressive yet in the LR as far as bleeding cold eastward towards the end of the first of Dec.Presented without comment...
the bad news is, this is a single model run and the ridgey analog + latest ensembles continue to support SER.
i still feel like that's a thing worth watching. it's been said already that we could be in for a bit of a roller-coaster ride, and the AIFS supports that for sure. need some ens support to show up though, while it did lead the way on the upcoming turkey day front, there was some ens support at the same time
Good. Build that snow pack to the north and west.
rburrel2
Member
Hard not to be super optimistic about the 2nd half of December right now. Right around the winter solstice too, and Christmas!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unlike the SE US where you can get CAD, overunning, coastal events, etc. there’s really only one recipe that can give us a good snow event in New Mexico and this longwave pattern isn’t too far off from that in early December.
So many ways to screw this up but I’m at least intrigued.
Regardless, this should be a nice table setter event over the conus to get the cold well established and deeply entrenched
So many ways to screw this up but I’m at least intrigued.
Regardless, this should be a nice table setter event over the conus to get the cold well established and deeply entrenched
Go on & reel ya one in Eric.
Bigedd09
Member
Great pattern for you
What an idiot. 
Trying to build the snowpack for Rain Cold! 
If this don’t tickle your pickle, you need to find a new hobby! 
I’d be tickled a lot more if I had -8 at my abode like you have instead of the stubborn SE ridge caused +8 like it has:
Today’s Euro Weeklies update on the SPV compared to last run keeps the reversal (or near reversal) but it’s a fair bit stronger Dec-early Jan. Keep in mind that the prior two runs were already significantly stronger for that period:
Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run:
EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11:
Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run:
EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11:
