Tropical Melissa

[Snowfan]

 

[jrips27]

 

[Snowfan]

URNT15 KNHC 271651
AF308 2013A MELISSA HDOB 51 20251027
164200 1636N 07830W 6964 03027 9921 +078 +066 043067 069 070 007 00
164230 1634N 07829W 6965 03008 9882 +095 +070 045074 078 078 006 00
164300 1633N 07828W 6978 02975 9855 +100 +066 047080 084 081 007 00
164330 1632N 07827W 6963 02969 9835 +094 +068 040087 090 087 009 00
164400 1631N 07826W 6968 02929 9779 +112 +067 042095 098 092 009 00
164430 1630N 07824W 6975 02887 9747 +107 +070 040099 103 101 009 00
164500 1629N 07823W 6969 02848 9697 +106 +068 037113 118 107 014 00
164530 1628N 07822W 6957 02795 9645 +087 +072 033123 126 117 054 00
164600 1626N 07821W 6969 02670 9517 +090 +069 025142 150 157 057 00
164630 1625N 07819W 6981 02480 9306 +120 +091 016126 152 170 018 00
164700 1624N 07818W 6941 02424 9114 +217 +082 005055 103 162 000 00
164730 1623N 07816W 6977 02355 9068 +249 +072 028008 028 031 000 03
164800 1623N 07814W 6959 02375 9068 +246 +076 158007 011 029 000 00
164830 1624N 07812W 6970 02368 9078 +238 +071 178021 029 031 000 03
164900 1623N 07811W 6961 02396 9121 +206 +082 189058 071 080 002 03
164930 1622N 07810W 6978 02420 9199 +164 +106 201099 111 130 000 00
165000 1621N 07809W 6923 02587 9294 +106 //// 210137 147 152 014 01
165030 1620N 07808W 6974 02635 9490 +103 //// 207148 150 147 023 01
165100 1620N 07807W 6976 02710 9540 +120 +096 207142 146 131 027 00
165130 1619N 07807W 6966 02781 9632 +092 //// 208133 139 113 011 01
$$
;
170 kt SFMR, 152 kt SFMR. 905 mb.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Outlook is a bit more bleak than this time
yesterday. Cat 5 landfall seems favored here

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES
175/906

 

[Snowfan]

 

[jrips27]

Staggering damage if this happens

 

[mydoortotheworld]

No access to gifs or anything animated but from those WV images alone it looks like some southerly shear taking place?

 

[Tsappfrog20]

175 mph Monster!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[mydoortotheworld]

No access to gifs or anything animated but from those WV images alone it looks like some southerly shear taking place?

Meh, just saw a gif on Twitter and it’s probably not shear, and if it is, it sure isn’t doing anything to inhibit the storm to any effect

 

[Stormsfury]

No access to gifs or anything animated but from those WV images alone it looks like some southerly shear taking place?

On the southern outflow channel well away from the center. Melissa moving WNW and likely about to start turning right more into that changing flow. Short term net result, negligible.

 

[jrips27]

Compelling case for additional strengthening before landfall

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Again, a little wobble to the left. As I stated last night in the other forum, while unlikely, there is still a chance the core misses Jamaica.

Tall order, but one more jog to the wnw and a delayed east of north motion until past Jamaica, and a miracle has occurred.

 

[Tarheel1]

Saw this. Delete if already posted!

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

I ain't the smartest guy in the world, but to me it's still going due west, which is getting out of the track the nhc had for Melissa. Hoping it continues

 

[Arcc]

Again, a little wobble to the left. As I stated last night in the other forum, while unlikely, there is still a chance the core misses Jamaica.

Tall order, but one more jog to the wnw and a delayed east of north motion until past Jamaica, and a miracle has occurred.

Wouldn't be surprising at all. Ivan's dance around Jamaica was legendary.

 

[Noles1812]

Looks WNW

 

[Tarheel1]

This is concerning as well! Don’t think I’ve ever seen a computer model show that high of wind on land!? Ever?? But I probably just missed it!? Either way….

 

[jrips27]

5PM NHC maintains the Black River area of Jamaica as the landfall point.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The storm is already .2 degrees further west longitude than the 5 PM advisory based on satellite at 78.6W

It's clearly moving faster than 3mph, too.

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

The storm is already .2 degrees further west longitude than the 5 PM advisory based on satellite at 78.6W

It's clearly moving faster than 3mph, too.

It's going to take a big big turn north to get it close to the nhc track with it going west

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It's going to take a big big turn north to get it close to the nhc track with it going west

The northerly motion will, without doubt, bend back NNE. I'm hopeful that any east of due north motion is delayed until past Jamaica, which would be a swing and a miss!

 

[iGRXY]

These are just subtle movements. There would need to be massive movement to the west for this to miss Jamaica.

 

[Arcc]

Definitely looks like the subtile signs of southerly shear affecting the CDO. Will not likely cause weakening and as Stormfury pointed out it will be negated with the NE turn, but I'd think this may has probably peaked.

 

[Shaggy]

2 planes inbound so we should get some new wind data soon enough

 

[RBR71]

That west movement is a touch more than subtle, praying it can bounce around and weaken some. What a beast

 

[jrips27]

Can’t wait to see the recon pass in a bit

 

[Stormsfury]

Unfortunately, that's unsubstantiated.
There have 190kt plus gusts off the deck in the 850mb to 900mb level but Hurricane Patricia still has the record for highest measured gust from RECON from 2021. (Believe over 255mph)

Saw this. Delete if already posted! View attachment 175723

 

[Snowfan]

ive been hurricane watching since 2017 and I have never seen a hurricane that impressive on satellite.

 

[ChrisAMB]

One thing the models aren't going to pick up on are wind interactions with the mountains. Take a look at the topographic map below. Gonna be some wild channeling of winds in some of those valleys and even a downslope component on the northern end of the island with this thing approaching from the SW.

 

[Rain Cold]

One thing the models aren't going to pick up on are wind interactions with the mountains. Take a look at the topographic map below. Gonna be some wild channeling of winds in some of those valleys and even a downslope component on the northern end of the island with this thing approaching from the SW.

View attachment 175727

Yeah that's a good point. 200 mph gusts definitely in play.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Kingston will avoid the worst impact correct ?

 

[Rain Cold]

Kingston will avoid the worst impact correct ?

Yes

 

[Snowfan]

One more dataset until center pass.

 

[Snowfan]

906 mb.

638
URNT15 KWBC 272232
NOAA2 2113A MELISSA HDOB 15 20251027
222230 1648N 07902W 7520 02408 9908 +152 +136 028072 074 /// /// 03
222300 1647N 07900W 7512 02407 9902 +147 +142 030075 077 /// /// 03
222330 1646N 07858W 7516 02394 9883 +156 +145 031077 079 /// /// 03
222400 1645N 07856W 7523 02373 9875 +150 +155 035084 087 /// /// 05
222430 1644N 07855W 7512 02372 9864 +145 +152 033084 085 /// /// 05
222500 1643N 07853W 7519 02350 9844 +150 +146 033089 091 /// /// 05
222530 1643N 07851W 7520 02326 9821 +150 +149 035098 100 /// /// 05
222600 1642N 07850W 7514 02309 9796 +146 +160 036101 105 /// /// 05
222630 1641N 07848W 7507 02296 9757 +157 +172 035103 105 /// /// 05
222700 1640N 07846W 7512 02249 9713 +161 +172 033111 114 /// /// 05
222730 1639N 07845W 7517 02199 9661 +163 +167 034117 121 /// /// 05
222800 1638N 07843W 7512 02136 9597 +156 +175 035131 134 /// /// 05
222830 1637N 07842W 7502 02064 9509 +154 +175 037139 142 /// /// 05
222900 1636N 07841W 7478 01960 9366 +161 +185 037139 146 /// /// 05
222930 1635N 07839W 7508 01812 9213 +203 +197 043095 125 /// /// 05
223000 1634N 07837W 7519 01737 9129 +242 +190 045056 077 /// /// 03
223030 1632N 07836W 7523 01708 9101 +251 +182 057019 043 /// /// 03
223100 1631N 07834W 7526 01705 9120 +221 +184 217025 044 /// /// 03
223130 1630N 07832W 7514 01769 9181 +202 +192 213074 092 /// /// 03
223200 1629N 07831W 7529 01865 9284 +223 +183 213122 131 /// /// 03

 

[jrips27]

CDO is cooling

 

[Shaggy]

One thing the models aren't going to pick up on are wind interactions with the mountains. Take a look at the topographic map below. Gonna be some wild channeling of winds in some of those valleys and even a downslope component on the northern end of the island with this thing approaching from the SW.

View attachment 175727

Gonna devastate the nations coffee industry.

 

[jrips27]

Almost looks like it’s going to do a little loop before resuming northward movement

 

[SENC]

Yes

NO, extreme flooding, , Wind impacts, well, depends on well your home place is built..

 

[SENC]

Already in Cuba..