I totally understand and know the likelihood of one scenario off of one model run being far from the final result. I also understand anything at this point is moot as nothing has formed and the “pattern is not set in stone. No wishing or wanting here!
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Right normally I wouldn't even post the 300 hour GFS but the complaints have gotten so bad in here when it's August 4th and there's actually things on the models shrugs
It'd be like giving up on winter on December 15th basically. We've passed what maybe 10 percent of the season? Maybe?
It was the same last year, then it became more active!
Brent
Member
And pretty much every year.... I mean I don't know why people act like this. The seasons have been backloaded lately
Carolina Fever
Member
Matthew East isn't having any of the foolishness.
My blood pressure is already rising to an (more) unhealthy level seeing the wild, careless, and nearly-impossible-to-be-accurate posts of 10-day runs of a specific model showing a hurricane making a US landfall. Stop it. Discuss the pattern growing more favorable for development, highlight some areas to watch.... stop showing Cat 4's hitting specific areas on a 10-day model run.
My blood pressure is already rising to an (more) unhealthy level seeing the wild, careless, and nearly-impossible-to-be-accurate posts of 10-day runs of a specific model showing a hurricane making a US landfall. Stop it. Discuss the pattern growing more favorable for development, highlight some areas to watch.... stop showing Cat 4's hitting specific areas on a 10-day model run.
Shaggy
Member
I like to consider it the 3 Cs
Consistency
Consensus
Confidence
Can't have confidence until we have the 1st two
Consistency
Consensus
Confidence
Can't have confidence until we have the 1st two
Shaggy
Member
The gefs has solutions from entering the gulf to recurring.
yeah not meaning to sound negative nor patronizing but, and you could hear it in matthew east's post above, there's something uniquely grating about long range fantasy hurricanes that i don't feel with snowstorms and that's why you see mets stomp out any enthusiasm asap
The concern I have that there may actually be something threatening somewhere in the Conus (Gulf or Atlantic coasts) (hopefully not!) as we approach midmonth is that the model consensus is suggesting there may be an extended period of the MJO being in or near phase 2 around then.
Why is a long period in phase 2 a concern? US MH hits during phase 2 (**either inside or outside the circle**) during July-Sep since 1975: Ida (2021), Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Bret (1999), Emily (1993), Hugo (1989), Frederic (1979), Eloise (1975)….that’s 9 of 23 (39%) Jul-Sep Conus MH hits during 1975-2024 just during phase 2, alone! The 39% is more than double the ~17% of days in phase 2, meaning a significant/non-random signal for increased danger.
Latest MJO forecasts:
GEFS suggests long period in phase 2 inside circle
EPS similar
Avg precip for phases July-Sep *including inside circle*: phase 2 wettest in SE
Why is a long period in phase 2 a concern? US MH hits during phase 2 (**either inside or outside the circle**) during July-Sep since 1975: Ida (2021), Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Bret (1999), Emily (1993), Hugo (1989), Frederic (1979), Eloise (1975)….that’s 9 of 23 (39%) Jul-Sep Conus MH hits during 1975-2024 just during phase 2, alone! The 39% is more than double the ~17% of days in phase 2, meaning a significant/non-random signal for increased danger.
Latest MJO forecasts:
GEFS suggests long period in phase 2 inside circle
EPS similar
Avg precip for phases July-Sep *including inside circle*: phase 2 wettest in SE
NWMSGuy
Member
Noise at this juncture but the 12Z GFS has a Hurricane headed for the LA coast at hour 330. Close to 20 years since Katrina would be a nightmare scenario if it happened.
lexxnchloe
Member
Its doesnt even get going till much later now and its flying. This is a sign the GFS is backing off development. Also, if things are really getting favorable there would be something else coming behind it and there is nothing. Worth watching for the GOM though
lexxnchloe
Member
AI still has something but now there are no disturbances behind it which makes me dubious that this is accurate.
According the the Euro/AI there is another one coming behind it. GFS ensembles are hinting at that as well.
lexxnchloe
Member
AI just has this 1 960 low posted above with nothing behind it
Right but that storm showing on the AI is the 2nd storm behind the one showing up on the GFS. The storm showing up on the GFS is the one that has been showing a recurve on Euro/AI models. We’ll see how it plays out.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Trying for a cat5
just 1 run though. Does seem as though some kind of threat is imminent down the road.
Brent
Member
Yup the hurricanes are coming sooner or later. Everyone just relax 
NoSnowATL
Member
Cat 5 train coming. Gotcha.Yup the hurricanes are coming sooner or later. Everyone just relax
The pattern late in the period is a little concerning. Broad ridging across the Atlantic with shear decreasing. There will be an escape route or two that pops up, as the ENS will smooth things out way out in time, but the EPS does show a recurve in the MDR and then brings another wave across that takes the low road. I have a feeling that we may be talking about a significant threat that shows itself in the 12-18 day time frame or so. There's a lot of warm water out there, and shear looks to become more favorable.
Euro goes boom. 
lexxnchloe
Member
Stronger and further west than at 12Z
Brent
Member
So dead out there.. 
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS recurves a very weak system 1 now east of bermuda. Lets see if it does anything with num 2
