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Pattern July Fry and Dry

Shaggy said:
Some boundary interactions have saved me some today View attachment 173592
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Here there was a collision of that aforementioned outflow boundary, which actually appeared to be a seabreeze on closer examination, and one moving in nearly the opposite direction (from inland) that was true outflow from a well inland thunderstorm complex. That collision lead to an area of thunderstorms near the coast and which soon after made it here. There had just been a short period of heavy rain (first since July 13th) though it has for now lightened up. Looking at radar, the thunderstorm area may hang around for awhile. Crossing my fingers this doesn’t turn into a heavy rainfall event

Now moderately heavy rain. There’s been some rather hefty gusts with this, too.

High these last two days has been a very uncomfortable 97, hottest so far this year.
 
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Boy the GFS is nothing but misery as fas as the eye can see until past 300 hrs; then shows a little relief. But the plains would be absolutely baking. Interestingly, both the GEFS and Euro show a significantly muted and more bearable pattern; still seasonal of course, but at least some 80s thrown in for many. I'm pulling for those.
 
There are storms 3 hours away right now(which is not normal at all usually the storms would be in Canada by now...) but I've pretty much assumed were hot and dry til September at this point lol

It's still not verifying on a true summer pattern here but well it's close enough
 
So much for a cooler day for much of SC as we head right back to 95+ with no break in sight. Hopefully our NC people enjoy the cooler they get for the next couple of days.
 
Can't let a calendar day pass without some measuring qpf falling. On what's suppose to be a rain free day, light shower has broke out. The New Florida wx pattern summer continues around here. Never witnessed so many summer days with measurable ( trace +) rain falling.

edit: light shower has broke out/ Change to Moderate-Heavy rain
 
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Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
 
NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...
That's pretty crazy. The wilmington reporting station went almost 84 hours with a temp above 80 degrees. Our low last night even after a rain was only 78. It's been a scorcher of a summer so far
 
NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...

Ha that's interesting 1906 is apparently one of the coolest summers ever here 🤣 we never got above 95 apparently only one to do so

This is the 8th latest first 96 we've had this year
 
jrips27 said:
GFS trying to nuke Atlanta next week lol 84 for a lowView attachment 173598
Click to expand...

Based on the quotes I copied below from June showing the GFS as having verified as being much too hot for highs, the GFS will almost certainly verify as too hot and likely much too hot for highs as the hottest at ATL was 95 on 6/24 and 96 on 6/25.

First, here’s the laughable 0Z 7/22 GFS for KPDK (NE ATL) (0Z Euro is much cooler at KPDK with 101 on 7/30 and 103 on 7/31 and will likely come much closer): highs of 100 today vs FFC’s 96, 103 on 7/28, 104 on 7/29, 108 on 7/30, and 107 on 7/31 (Keeping in mind that FFC was almost spot on for the late June heat by being much cooler than the GFS, FFC’s forecast hottest through 7/29 is only mid 90s):
IMG_4114.png

Second, here were the way too hot GFS progs for late June highs:

GaWx said:
KATL is also looking brutal on the 6Zs this week with these highs: (GFS/Euro)

6/22: 96/91
6/23: 99/95
6/24: 103/102
6/25: 101/104
6/26: 94/96
6/27: 96/87

Currently FFC has ATL’s hottest on 6/25 with upper 90s, but they’re watching closely.
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GaWx said:
Which did better today for highs, GFS or Euro?

6Z GFS/Euro highs today for:

RDU: 103/99 vs actual of 100; Euro wins

GSO: 101/100 vs actual of 95; both were terrible though Euro less terrible

FAY: 99/99 vs actual of 98; both did well

ATL: 102/98 vs actual of 95; Euro did better than the awful GFS but still was 3 too hot

Euro also did better yesterday at GSO and FAY

So for these 2 days overall, Euro did significantly better than GFS, which tended to be at least several degrees too hot.
Click to expand...
 
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NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...
The next two nights are the best bets for low temperatures to go below 70 degrees with the so called "cold front" returning temperatures to near normal levels for the next couple of days and possibly keeping the summer of 1906 record intact. After that it is off to the races with the temperatures again for at least the next ten days or so.
 
I compared the 0Z 7/22 GFS and Euro progged highs for ATL. Now I’ll do it for NC:

0Z 7/22 hottest highs for RDU/GSO/FAY:

0Z 7/22 GFS: RDU 102 (7/29), GSO 101 (7/29), FAY 104 (7/28)

0Z 7/22 Euro: RDU 98 (7/27); GSO 98 (7/27, 7/30, 7/31); FAY 100 (7/27)

So, the 0Z 7/22 GFS’ hottest is hotter than that for the Euro by 3-4 F. That sounds quite familiar.

Who do you favor? Based on many significantly too hot GFS runs and much closer Euro runs for the late June heatwave, I’m easily favoring the Euro for GSO/FAY. RDU is tricky though because of its often too hot sensor. So, I’ll go halfway between for RDU (what verified there in late June).

So, I’m going 100 for RDU, 98 for GSO, and 100 for FAY as of now for a wild guess of the hottest of 7/27-31.
 
Wow the HRRR is showing upstate SC being hotter today than it was yesterday. GSP's forecast is going to bust hard south of hwy 74 today.
 
weather bubba said:
The next two nights are the best bets for low temperatures to go below 70 degrees with the so called "cold front" returning temperatures to near normal levels for the next couple of days and possibly keeping the summer of 1906 record intact. After that it is off to the races with the temperatures again for at least the next ten days or so.
Click to expand...
Our forecast low tonight is 73 then its back up to mid to upper 70s after that
 
GaWx said:
Based on the quotes I copied below from June showing the GFS as having verified as being much too hot for highs, the GFS will almost certainly verify as too hot and likely much too hot for highs as the hottest at ATL was 95 on 6/24 and 96 on 6/25.

First, here’s the laughable 0Z 7/22 GFS for KATL (0Z Euro is much cooler with 99 on 7/30 and 101 on 7/31 and will likely come much closer): highs of 100 today vs FFC’s 96, 103 on 7/28, 104 on 7/29, 108 on 7/30, and 107 on 7/31 (Keeping in mind that FFC was almost spot on for the late June heat by being much cooler than the GFS, FFC’s forecast hottest through 7/29 is only mid 90s):
View attachment 173599

Second, here were the way too hot GFS progs for late June highs:
Click to expand...
Thanks Larry! I agree with you it’s likely way overdone. 100 max seems way more realistic, but something to watch!
 
jrips27 said:
Thanks Larry! I agree with you it’s likely way overdone. 100 max seems way more realistic, but something to watch!
Click to expand...

You’re welcome, jrips.

We’ll get an early test of the two models today. (Note that I just corrected errors in my earlier post where I said the highs were for KATL when they’re really for KPDK (NE ATL station/Chamblee for those who don’t know)).

For today at KPDK/Chamblee, the 0Z GFS has a high of 100 vs only 93 for the 0Z/6Z Euro, a whopping 7 F cooler on day 1! FFC is going in between with mid 90s, which I bet will do well.

At 11AM it was 88 in Chamblee. The 0Z GFS had 90 for then vs the 0Z/6Z Euro’s 86. So, it’s currently halfway between.
 
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Many Carolina sites are seeing a top 10 “most humid” summer of all time, going by average dewpoint. From 6/1 to today,
CLT 4th (+2.7)
RDU 2nd (+3.8)
ILM 1st (+3.3)
AVL 4th (+3.2)
CAE 4th (forgot the number)
GSP not even top 10!
PGV broken. Says avg dew is 74.37 which is +7.8 and 4F above 2nd
 
jackendrickwx said:
Many Carolina sites are seeing a top 10 “most humid” summer of all time, going by average dewpoint. From 6/1 to today,
CLT 4th (+2.7)
RDU 2nd (+3.8)
ILM 1st (+3.3)
AVL 4th (+3.2)
CAE 4th (forgot the number)
GSP not even top 10!
PGV broken. Says avg dew is 74.37 which is +7.8 and 4F above 2nd
Click to expand...
Also, GSO 1st (+3.9)
 
GSP needs 1 more degree it looks like to keep its 90+ streak intact. If it happens, they'll eventually break the record of 38 days.
 
Looks like the border counties in NC/SC will continue with streak. The airport CLT is just under 90.
90a30153a4004d67a2f0cea2096766a5.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The old saying if thunder roars head indoors is correct. Thunder was far removed by a few miles and no lightning had hit close at all. The rain was ending and barely sprinkling so I walked outside to check my rain Guage when a bolt hit roughly 150-200 yards away I could hear the "sizzle" of the charge and then a sharp stinging jolt to my right foot like a wasp sting.

Thought about getting checked out but at no point have I felt sick or off. I think i just took a groundshock through the wet grass.........there was also my sons fishing magnet right next to my foot which may have been the culprit
 
The Carolinas and parts of GA are probably in for the longest stretch of very high heat since 2007 with the Euro now showing 100+ for 5-6 days.
 
JHS said:
The Carolinas and parts of GA are probably in for the longest stretch of very high heat since 2007 with the Euro now showing 100+ for 5-6 days.
Click to expand...

It’s still early. Hopefully it won’t end up as hot or hot for as long as that was a hot operational outlier vs prior Euro runs and hotter than 12Z GFS in Carolinas at least. Usually those don’t verify. We’ll see. I’d give more weight to the Euro ens mean vs operational for now since it’s still pretty far out.
 
Pretty classic NC heatwave precursors with the AN 850s over the upper Midwest and southern prairie provinces being pushed SE on the eastern side of a heat ridge
 
GaWx said:
It’s still early. Hopefully it won’t end up as hot or hot for as long as that was a hot operational outlier vs prior Euro runs and hotter than 12Z GFS in Carolinas at least. Usually those don’t verify. We’ll see. I’d give more weight to the Euro ens mean vs operational for now since it’s still pretty far out.
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This Euro having this raises the alarm though since I'm not sure it has the bias like the GFS. You can always take up to 7-8 degrees off the GFS runs but the Euro may be another story. You are right though, and things can change since it is 5-6 days out, but I think it's obvious that we are at least in for several days of mid to upper 90's.
 
SD said:
Pretty classic NC heatwave precursors with three AN 850s over the upper Midwest and southern prairie provinces being pushed SE on the eastern side of a heat ridge
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It seems to me that with this much northwest flow we have had and are getting later, that the ring of fire would have set up somewhere, but it just is not happening. Those MCS' are nowhere to be found so far and no real signs of them showing up.
 
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