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Pattern July Fry and Dry

imo 2012 is the heat benchmark here in ATL metro 104-109 depending on where you were.. It's still going to be hot as all get out. 98-100 for days on end with lows in the upper 70's. The long deep dog days of summer are here!! Portending the beginning of the end of summer which ushers in the most wondrous winter to come.
 
EmersonGA said:
That thing is never accurate. It has me touching the abnormally dry and I'm at 5.44" for July, 10" for June, and 13.44" for May. 56.83 YTD. My creek is running like springtime.

It is hot as hell though. Y'all can keep this crap. I can always add clothes in winter but I can only take so many off and not get arrested.
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I’ve had hardly any rain in July, but it damn sure seems like it rains all around me every day. That abnormally dry should be over me and it isn’t. I think I’ve had just over an inch and it was back not long at the fourth. Every day it’s all around but always dies or goes around.
 
Not sure Atlanta is going to have the juice to break any record highs but we will see. Honestly the more likely thing may be the record high minimums at night. All time record high low is 82 in 2007 I think. Not sure we break that but might be close and could set some daily records for sure.

The urban heat island is going to be bumping at night
 
jrips27 said:
Not sure Atlanta is going to have the juice to break any record highs but we will see. Honestly the more likely thing may be the record high minimums at night. All time record high low is 82 in 2007 I think. Not sure we break that but might be close and could set some daily records for sure.

The urban heat island is going to be bumping at night
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The current FFC forecast has FIVE highs of upper 90s in a row! (Sun-Thu 7/27-31) Earlier forecasted highs for early next week were in the mid 90s. Upper 90s on 7/30-1 would threaten records.

Getting 5 days in a row of 97+ since 2000 has been rather rare as this has occurred during only 3 months since then: June 2024 (5 in a row), July 2012 (6 in a row), and August 2007 (6 in a row twice).
 
We've dipped to 75 for the night. Likely to be the coolest overnight low for me the next week. ILM has my Saturday night low at 80 so I suspect the streak of 70+ degree lows continues and breaks the record by next week.
 
jrips27 said:
Not sure Atlanta is going to have the juice to break any record highs but we will see. Honestly the more likely thing may be the record high minimums at night. All time record high low is 82 in 2007 I think. Not sure we break that but might be close and could set some daily records for sure.

The urban heat island is going to be bumping at night
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My power bill is going to be a beast next time. I can hear the compressor running all night already.
 
NCSNOW said:
You ride the GFS at your own peril.
I stand by my forecast.
The hottest part of summer is over here in my neck of the woods by the end of next week. It's a Downhill slope after that. Maybe not as steep an fast as I'd like, but we will have peaked.
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GFS is notorious for over hyping heat during the summer. My fear came true when we had a below normal spring and June this year, by having a complete flip of heat in July. That looks to be breaking down by the first of August and just in time as averages are slowly creeping back down too. This talk of heat until October is ridiculous. That would be exceptionally abnormal and nothing supports it.
 
This summer has been hot, but still does't compare to 2016. The temp was 94-98 for like two straight months and you couldn't buy a cloud for shade. Looking at the seven day forecast was just depressing.
 
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JHS said:
If you account for the GFS bias many of us will top out at 98-99 now instead of 100-102. Not much help but better than nothing. Still at just over 100 in the usual places like Augusta and Columbia though.
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I don't understand what happens in the day 4-8 range that causes models to lose their mind. I think it may be a mixing bias but idk, 850s on the models would have argued most days max out 98/99
 
SD said:
I don't understand what happens in the day 4-8 range that causes models to lose their mind. I think it may be a mixing bias but idk, 850s on the models would have argued most days max out 98/99
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It may be dewpoints. I noticed on those very hot afternoon it kept those under 65 in many places. Reality will probably be 70-75.
 
Absolutely horrible forecast for my area:

GAZ118-260500-
INLAND CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
TO 112. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

SUNDAY
SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 101. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 113.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106 EARLY IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY
SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.

MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.

IMG_4167.gif
 
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