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Pattern July Fry and Dry

Shaggy said:
Some boundary interactions have saved me some today View attachment 173592
Click to expand...

Here there was a collision of that aforementioned outflow boundary, which actually appeared to be a seabreeze on closer examination, and one moving in nearly the opposite direction (from inland) that was true outflow from a well inland thunderstorm complex. That collision lead to an area of thunderstorms near the coast and which soon after made it here. There had just been a short period of heavy rain (first since July 13th) though it has for now lightened up. Looking at radar, the thunderstorm area may hang around for awhile. Crossing my fingers this doesn’t turn into a heavy rainfall event

Now moderately heavy rain. There’s been some rather hefty gusts with this, too.

High these last two days has been a very uncomfortable 97, hottest so far this year.
 
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Boy the GFS is nothing but misery as fas as the eye can see until past 300 hrs; then shows a little relief. But the plains would be absolutely baking. Interestingly, both the GEFS and Euro show a significantly muted and more bearable pattern; still seasonal of course, but at least some 80s thrown in for many. I'm pulling for those.
 
There are storms 3 hours away right now(which is not normal at all usually the storms would be in Canada by now...) but I've pretty much assumed were hot and dry til September at this point lol

It's still not verifying on a true summer pattern here but well it's close enough
 
So much for a cooler day for much of SC as we head right back to 95+ with no break in sight. Hopefully our NC people enjoy the cooler they get for the next couple of days.
 
Can't let a calendar day pass without some measuring qpf falling. On what's suppose to be a rain free day, light shower has broke out. The New Florida wx pattern summer continues around here. Never witnessed so many summer days with measurable ( trace +) rain falling.

edit: light shower has broke out/ Change to Moderate-Heavy rain
 
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Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
 
NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...
That's pretty crazy. The wilmington reporting station went almost 84 hours with a temp above 80 degrees. Our low last night even after a rain was only 78. It's been a scorcher of a summer so far
 
NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...

Ha that's interesting 1906 is apparently one of the coolest summers ever here 🤣 we never got above 95 apparently only one to do so

This is the 8th latest first 96 we've had this year
 
jrips27 said:
GFS trying to nuke Atlanta next week lol 84 for a lowView attachment 173598
Click to expand...

Based on the quotes I copied below from June showing the GFS as having verified as being much too hot for highs, the GFS will almost certainly verify as too hot and likely much too hot for highs as the hottest at ATL was 95 on 6/24 and 96 on 6/25.

First, here’s the laughable 0Z 7/22 GFS for KATL (0Z Euro is much cooler with 99 on 7/30 and 101 on 7/31 and will likely come much closer): highs of 100 today vs FFC’s 96, 103 on 7/28, 104 on 7/29, 108 on 7/30, and 107 on 7/31 (Keeping in mind that FFC was almost spot on for the late June heat by being much cooler than the GFS, FFC’s forecast hottest through 7/29 is only mid 90s)
IMG_4114.png

Second, here were the way too hot GFS progs for late June highs:

GaWx said:
KATL is also looking brutal on the 6Zs this week with these highs: (GFS/Euro)

6/22: 96/91
6/23: 99/95
6/24: 103/102
6/25: 101/104
6/26: 94/96
6/27: 96/87

Currently FFC has ATL’s hottest on 6/25 with upper 90s, but they’re watching closely.
Click to expand...

GaWx said:
Which did better today for highs, GFS or Euro?

6Z GFS/Euro highs today for:

RDU: 103/99 vs actual of 100; Euro wins

GSO: 101/100 vs actual of 95; both were terrible though Euro less terrible

FAY: 99/99 vs actual of 98; both did well

ATL: 102/98 vs actual of 95; Euro did better than the awful GFS but still was 3 too hot

Euro also did better yesterday at GSO and FAY

So for these 2 days overall, Euro did significantly better than GFS, which tended to be at least several degrees too hot.
Click to expand...
 
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WSW flow over the weekend RDU might hit 125.
Euro cut off the garage heatwave locally pretty abruptly. This upcoming pattern looks good at H5 but I'd be concerned about 2mT anoms not matching H5
 
NCSNOW said:
Shaggy will appreciate this. Since he's been charting the Wilm area, using 80 degree lows compared to the 70 degree low metric Raleigh NWS is using:

As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.
Wow, been since June 21st since RDU had a low below 70.
Click to expand...
The next two nights are the best bets for low temperatures to go below 70 degrees with the so called "cold front" returning temperatures to near normal levels for the next couple of days and possibly keeping the summer of 1906 record intact. After that it is off to the races with the temperatures again for at least the next ten days or so.
 
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