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Misc Stock Market

I don't know where the report is coming from. Like Hassett had a interview with Fox News LITERALLY A HOUR AGO. Does this sound like the president will reconsider or not?
 
I really hope we don't get a pause on tariffs...it will be more of the same predatory price action. News headlines yanking market up and down in flashes.
 
Well just got stopped out...I am done for the day...my best day in some time. Qs dropped almost 6% in 10 mins...this market full casino.

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Good grief...look at the daily. Qs had engulfed Fridays candle and now free falling. I don't trade volatility like this well. Just watching. I don't know what it would take for me to hop back in today.

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VIX hit 60 today...you probably make a lot of money shoving as much as you can in when VIX hits 60 in history. I am really having a hard time not buying something here.

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Reclaimed intraday resistance of $417...added at $417.70 and sold it right away at $427.50. Nice 10pts in about 10 mins. Now just going to watch again. If it just rips from here I am screwed and watch but if it tests $417-419 area again I might add back.


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Many mega caps really green...make sense. They've been beaten up the most and should be first to bounce.

I would be stunned if we don't see SPY/Qs test todays lows this week.

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Trump showing his cards...he wants a deal with China. Essentially this will shut off imports from China. Would be devastating for us.

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Reclaimed intraday resistance of $417...added at $417.70 and sold it right away at $427.50. Nice 10pts in about 10 mins. Now just going to watch again. If it just rips from here I am screwed and watch but if it tests $417-419 area again I might add back.


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Alright...trying again...added back at $415.20 v/s that $414 level which has held most of the morning.

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At it's lows today the Nasdaq100 was down almost 26% in 6-7 weeks with no real retracement. It gave up all of 2024 gains in 6 weeks...

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SPX at it's lows today down 22% in past 6-7 weeks...it gave up all of 2024 gains too and retraced all the way back to the late 2021 highs.

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Alright...trying again...added back at $415.20 v/s that $414 level which has held most of the morning.

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Closed this out at $422.80...quick 7 pts again. They are giving plenty of chances to make money today...but I really want this day to be over...no way I am carrying anything overnight.

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I mean you have to laugh at this


As many of us know by now, Trump is flat out lying about other countries’ tariffs that were on that chart as that’s really US trade deficit as a percent of US imports for each country. Before the 10-15% retaliatory tariffs by China last month, the U.S. was a “most favored nation” with tariffs on within quota imported soybeans/corn/wheat a mere 1-2%! The US farmers overall are going to be hurt.
 
SPY/SPX got no shot if Apple doesn't reverse. As a company Apple will fine until the tariff stupidity is resolved...they are a cash machine.

But....looks like it's headed for mid $160's.



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Yields up...someone selling treasuries in the face of a bear market. Asia biggest holder of US treasuries and China could really wreck the US. Credit event on top of the tariff mess on top of rising unemployment...really scary time.

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I just put in a modest buy order into a managed fund (group of ETFs that are ~70% stocks, ~30% bonds ) for the long-term for a trust. The actual buys won’t occur until tomorrow. That will increase that fund size by only ~10%. That adds to the ~20% buy I did a month ago during that market downturn. That fund, which is still up ~20%, is only a small % of the entire trust assets, which are largely in cash equivalents (very conservative portfolio overall, which is required for this trust).
 
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I just missed this by like 10 secs, was putting in buy order...was about to buy back at $416 mid and it ripped 2% in about 2 mins. Not chasing this though.

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SPY/SPX got no shot if Apple doesn't reverse. As a company Apple will fine until the tariff stupidity is resolved...they are a cash machine.

But....looks like it's headed for mid $160's.



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Nobody does buybacks like Apple does buybacks. Wouldn’t shock me if they do a big one this week
 
It’s not surprising about Grassley because IA is the top growing state of corn and 2nd highest for soybeans. Their corn exports were recently at $2.4 billion and soybean exports $11.5 billion:


Good to see. It is insane to me the President has this much unilateral taxing power, regardless of the merits of the strategy.
 
So far for SPY/SPX it's tech and only tech...XLF up small, XLI up small. This isn't a broad rally.

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Buying minimally in this area diversified stocks/fund for the longterm like I’m doing for a trust makes perfect sense from a dollar cost averaging standpoint. And then buying a similar amount again should it go down sharply from here, which wouldn’t be surprising. And so on.
 
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China’s tariffs weren’t “already ridiculous” as Trump just said during Qs from the press. Their top imports from the US are farm products. They were a mere 1-2% on grains and soybeans til just before it added 10-15% retaliatory on the US in March! How is that ridiculous??
 
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