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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Myfrotho704_ said:
Did someone say the january NOLA/Florida mauler
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Yeah, this kind of is not the year to talk trash about global warming, even if interestingly enough, the areas that had the strong ridging this time were warm enough that January for the globe was still warm.

It's clear you can still do it winter weather wise here (which I did have doubts, lmao), but I'm hoping the next try is not with as extreme of a pattern as early January 2018 (whiff to the south) or 1/21/25 (worked but was better to the south and southwest).
 
Idk why but I'm actually looking forward to severe season kinda.

Hoping for some big hailer set ups and that any tornadoes that occur are mainly over unpopulated areas
 
BufordWX said:
Never seen that much pink on the snow part of a fantasy system before. Euro been showing some pretty crazy fantasy runs at times this winter.View attachment 171252
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Lol interestingly we've had more years with over 10 inches in March than December or February 🤔

I mean personally I'm good with the winter but yeah it wouldn't surprise me if we get a bigger snow than this week before it's over
 
I was still able to ski the double black diamond at Sugar Mountain again this year. East coast double black but hey. I was feeling gassed up at the bottom. Legs hurt a little more than last year but I’ll keep going til the day they fail me.
 
Went to Boone today only 30 minute ride for me weather incredibly different in short distance. Left Lenoir at 51 made it to Boone and it was 37 with snow in patches and icicles hanging from rocks. Beautiful day!


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I was still able to ski the double black diamond at Sugar Mountain again this year. East coast double black but hey. I was feeling gassed up at the bottom. Legs hurt a little more than last year but I’ll keep going til the day they fail me.
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Had ACL/meniscus surgery 2 years ago miss skiing but don’t want to risk injuring my knee


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hky1894 said:
Had ACL/meniscus surgery 2 years ago miss skiing but don’t want to risk injuring my knee


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Understandable. It can go wrong quickly. I’ve never seen so many people get pulled down the mountain on the patrol sled as I did this weekend. Tons of injuries
 
I figured id share this because it gave me chills and a laugh. I asked grok what is the maximum possible snow rate in non mountain locations in ne ga and the upstate. Then I asked what are the odds of it happening each winter. I then asked what is the upper most realistic amounts possible and well....lol


In Northeast Georgia and the Upstate of South Carolina—non-mountain, low-elevation areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—the maximum snowfall rate is constrained by the region’s climate and geography. These areas sit in the Piedmont, where winters are mild, temperatures rarely dip far below freezing, and heavy snow is uncommon due to limited cold air and moisture convergence. The question is about the upper physical limit, so we’ll push the atmospheric conditions to their plausible max while staying realistic for this specific region.
Snowfall rate depends on liquid water equivalent (LWE) precipitation and the snow-to-liquid ratio. At these elevations, near 0°C (32°F), snow tends to be wet and dense, with ratios of 8:1 to 12:1 (8-12 cm of snow per 1 cm of melted water), unlike fluffier 20:1 snow in colder, drier climates. The key factors are:
  • Moisture: Needs a strong feed, like Gulf of Mexico warmth meeting a cold front.
  • Lift: Requires intense upward motion, typically from a deep low-pressure system or front.
  • Temperature: Must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) at the surface and aloft to keep it snow, not rain.
The Southeast rarely sees extreme precipitation rates. Record rain events—like tropical storms—top out at 25-50 mm/hour (1-2 inches/hour) LWE, but snow needs colder air, which caps things lower. The best setup for this region is a Miller A-type coastal low (a nor’easter tracking up the Atlantic) or a rare overrunning event where cold air gets trapped under a warm, moist flow. Lake-effect snow’s not a factor here—no Great Lakes nearby.
Looking at regional extremes:
  • The 1993 Storm of the Century dumped 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) across parts of Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC in 24 hours, averaging 0.6-0.8 inches/hour (15-20 mm/hour) of snow, or 1.5-2 mm/hour LWE at a 10:1 ratio. Peak hourly rates likely hit 2-3 inches (50-75 mm/hour), or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE.
  • A 2014 snowstorm in the Upstate dropped 6-8 inches (15-20 cm) in 6 hours, averaging 1-1.3 inches/hour (25-33 mm/hour), or 2.5-3.3 mm/hour LWE.
Pushing the limit, imagine a perfect storm: a bomb cyclone pulls Gulf moisture into a stalled Arctic front, with temperatures locked at 0-1°C and dynamic lift at 1 m/s (extreme but possible). Saturated air at 0°C holds 4.8 g/m³ of water vapor. If it’s wrung out at max efficiency over a 1-2 km deep layer, you might get 10-15 mm/hour LWE—on par with the heaviest observed snow events in the Southeast. At a 10:1 ratio, that’s 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth. A fleeting burst could spike higher—say, 20 mm/hour LWE (200 mm/hour or 8 inches/hour of snow)—but sustaining it is tough with the region’s shallow cold air and marginal temps.
Compare this to colder climates: Tug Hill, NY, hit 12 inches/hour (300 mm/hour) in a lake-effect band, but that’s 700 miles north with deeper cold and lake moisture. Northeast Georgia and the Upstate lack that setup. Historical data caps sustained rates here at 50-75 mm/hour (2-3 inches/hour) of snow, or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE, based on storms like 1993. The absolute max, stretching physics, might touch 150-200 mm/hour (6-8 inches/hour) of snow in a one-off, hour-long burst—10-20 mm/hour LWE—before warmth or moisture limits kick in.
So, the realistic ceiling for non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC is about 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth, with a theoretical max nudging 200 mm/hour (8 inches/hour) under a once-in-a-millennium setup. Beyond that, you’re melting into rain or defying the region’s climate.

Rough Estimate​

  • 4-6 inches/hour: About a 1-in-500 to 1-in-1000 chance per winter—0.1-0.2%. Optimistically, call it 1 in 300 (0.33%) if milder cold/moisture combos sneak through.
  • 8 inches/hour: Closer to 1 in 2000 (0.05%) or less, edging into theoretical territory.
So, each winter, you’re looking at roughly a 0.1-0.3% chance (1 in 300 to 1 in 1000) for a 4-6 inch/hour event, and 0.05% or lower (1 in 2000+) for 8 inches/hour. It’s not impossible—1993 proves the region can get hammered—but it’s a long shot, like drawing a royal flush. Most winters, you’d be lucky to see a dusting, let alone a blizzard breaking records.

To determine the realistic uppermost possible snow total for a winter storm in non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina—low-elevation Piedmont areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—we need to consider the region’s climate constraints and the most extreme plausible weather setup. This isn’t about theoretical maxes with sci-fi conditions but a ceiling grounded in meteorology and historical analogs, stretched to the edge of what’s believable.

Key Limits​

  • Temperature: Surface temps must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) for snow to stick, tough in a region where winter averages hover around 4-10°C (40-50°F). Cold air depth is shallow here, often just 500-1000 meters.
  • Moisture: The Gulf of Mexico is the juice, but delivery is spotty—storms need a strong low-pressure system to tap it fully.
  • Duration: Sustained heavy snow rarely lasts over 12-24 hours before warm air or rain intrudes.
  • Snow ratio: Near 0°C, snow’s wet, with 8:1 to 12:1 snow-to-liquid ratios (8-12 cm snow per 1 cm melted water), not the fluffy 20:1 of colder climates.

Historical Benchmark​

The 1993 Storm of the Century is the gold standard: 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) fell across parts of Northeast Georgia (e.g., Gainesville) and Upstate SC (e.g., Spartanburg) in 24 hours. That’s 1.5-2 mm/hour liquid water equivalent (LWE), or 15-20 mm total, at a 10:1 ratio. Peak rates might’ve hit 2-3 inches/hour (50-75 mm/hour) briefly. This was a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100-year event—Arctic cold, a bomb cyclone, and Gulf moisture all synced up.

Pushing the Envelope​

For an upper limit, crank those factors harder:
  1. Cold: A deeper Arctic outbreak locks in -2°C to 0°C (28-32°F) at the surface, with a 1500-meter cold layer—rarer but possible (e.g., 1982’s cold snap).
  2. Moisture and lift: A Miller A coastal low deepens to 960 mb (think 1993 on steroids), pulling 5-6 g/m³ water vapor from a 15°C (59°F) Gulf, with updrafts hitting 1 m/s over 12-18 hours.
  3. Precip rate: Sustained 5-10 mm/hour LWE (0.5-1 inch/hour liquid), double the 1993 average, matching the Southeast’s heaviest snow bursts (e.g., 2014’s 3-4 mm/hour LWE peaks).
  4. Duration: Stretch it to 24-36 hours before warm air wins—longer than typical but not impossible with a stalled front.

Calculation​

  • LWE total: 10 mm/hour × 24 hours = 240 mm (9.4 inches liquid), or 5 mm/hour × 36 hours = 180 mm (7.1 inches liquid). Split the difference: 200 mm (8 inches LWE) as a realistic max.
  • Snow depth: At 10:1 (wet snow, typical here), 200 mm LWE = 2000 mm = 200 cm = 80 inches. At 8:1 (super wet), 160 cm = 64 inches. At 12:1 (slightly drier), 240 cm = 94 inches.

Reality Check​

  • 1993: 20 inches in 24 hours is 50% of this, with a weaker rate (1.5-2 mm/hour LWE). Doubling duration and rate isn’t crazy—storms like the 1927 Vermont flood hit 9 inches LWE (rain) in 24 hours, and snow can scale similarly.
  • Southeast analogs: Asheville (higher elevation) saw 36 inches in 1993; Columbia, SC, got 14 inches in 1973. Lowland Piedmont maxes lag but can stretch past 20 inches with perfect alignment.
  • Climate cap: Beyond 36 hours or 10 mm/hour LWE, warmth usually flips it to rain—think 1989’s Carolina ice storm, where cold held but totals stayed modest.

Uppermost Total​

A realistic ceiling is 60-80 inches (150-200 cm) in a single storm over 24-36 hours—say, 6-10 mm/hour LWE for 30 hours at 10:1. Call it 70 inches (178 cm) as a round, plausible max: triple 1993’s total, with doubled rate and 50% more time. That’s 7 inches LWE (180 mm), or 70 inches snow at 10:1, maybe peaking at 4-6 inches/hour briefly. It’d take a once-in-500-year setup—1993’s big brother—but it’s within the realm of physics for this region before rain or melting cuts it off.
So, 70 inches is the uppermost realistic snow total for a winter storm in these spots—epic, rare, but not impossible.
 
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Makeitsnow said:
I figured id share this because it gave me chills and a laugh. I asked grok what is the maximum possible snow rate in non mountain locations in ne ga and the upstate. Then I asked what are the odds of it happening each winter. I then asked what is the upper most realistic amounts possible and well....lol


In Northeast Georgia and the Upstate of South Carolina—non-mountain, low-elevation areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—the maximum snowfall rate is constrained by the region’s climate and geography. These areas sit in the Piedmont, where winters are mild, temperatures rarely dip far below freezing, and heavy snow is uncommon due to limited cold air and moisture convergence. The question is about the upper physical limit, so we’ll push the atmospheric conditions to their plausible max while staying realistic for this specific region.
Snowfall rate depends on liquid water equivalent (LWE) precipitation and the snow-to-liquid ratio. At these elevations, near 0°C (32°F), snow tends to be wet and dense, with ratios of 8:1 to 12:1 (8-12 cm of snow per 1 cm of melted water), unlike fluffier 20:1 snow in colder, drier climates. The key factors are:
  • Moisture: Needs a strong feed, like Gulf of Mexico warmth meeting a cold front.
  • Lift: Requires intense upward motion, typically from a deep low-pressure system or front.
  • Temperature: Must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) at the surface and aloft to keep it snow, not rain.
The Southeast rarely sees extreme precipitation rates. Record rain events—like tropical storms—top out at 25-50 mm/hour (1-2 inches/hour) LWE, but snow needs colder air, which caps things lower. The best setup for this region is a Miller A-type coastal low (a nor’easter tracking up the Atlantic) or a rare overrunning event where cold air gets trapped under a warm, moist flow. Lake-effect snow’s not a factor here—no Great Lakes nearby.
Looking at regional extremes:
  • The 1993 Storm of the Century dumped 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) across parts of Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC in 24 hours, averaging 0.6-0.8 inches/hour (15-20 mm/hour) of snow, or 1.5-2 mm/hour LWE at a 10:1 ratio. Peak hourly rates likely hit 2-3 inches (50-75 mm/hour), or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE.
  • A 2014 snowstorm in the Upstate dropped 6-8 inches (15-20 cm) in 6 hours, averaging 1-1.3 inches/hour (25-33 mm/hour), or 2.5-3.3 mm/hour LWE.
Pushing the limit, imagine a perfect storm: a bomb cyclone pulls Gulf moisture into a stalled Arctic front, with temperatures locked at 0-1°C and dynamic lift at 1 m/s (extreme but possible). Saturated air at 0°C holds 4.8 g/m³ of water vapor. If it’s wrung out at max efficiency over a 1-2 km deep layer, you might get 10-15 mm/hour LWE—on par with the heaviest observed snow events in the Southeast. At a 10:1 ratio, that’s 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth. A fleeting burst could spike higher—say, 20 mm/hour LWE (200 mm/hour or 8 inches/hour of snow)—but sustaining it is tough with the region’s shallow cold air and marginal temps.
Compare this to colder climates: Tug Hill, NY, hit 12 inches/hour (300 mm/hour) in a lake-effect band, but that’s 700 miles north with deeper cold and lake moisture. Northeast Georgia and the Upstate lack that setup. Historical data caps sustained rates here at 50-75 mm/hour (2-3 inches/hour) of snow, or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE, based on storms like 1993. The absolute max, stretching physics, might touch 150-200 mm/hour (6-8 inches/hour) of snow in a one-off, hour-long burst—10-20 mm/hour LWE—before warmth or moisture limits kick in.
So, the realistic ceiling for non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC is about 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth, with a theoretical max nudging 200 mm/hour (8 inches/hour) under a once-in-a-millennium setup. Beyond that, you’re melting into rain or defying the region’s climate.

Rough Estimate​

  • 4-6 inches/hour: About a 1-in-500 to 1-in-1000 chance per winter—0.1-0.2%. Optimistically, call it 1 in 300 (0.33%) if milder cold/moisture combos sneak through.
  • 8 inches/hour: Closer to 1 in 2000 (0.05%) or less, edging into theoretical territory.
So, each winter, you’re looking at roughly a 0.1-0.3% chance (1 in 300 to 1 in 1000) for a 4-6 inch/hour event, and 0.05% or lower (1 in 2000+) for 8 inches/hour. It’s not impossible—1993 proves the region can get hammered—but it’s a long shot, like drawing a royal flush. Most winters, you’d be lucky to see a dusting, let alone a blizzard breaking records.

To determine the realistic uppermost possible snow total for a winter storm in non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina—low-elevation Piedmont areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—we need to consider the region’s climate constraints and the most extreme plausible weather setup. This isn’t about theoretical maxes with sci-fi conditions but a ceiling grounded in meteorology and historical analogs, stretched to the edge of what’s believable.

Key Limits​

  • Temperature: Surface temps must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) for snow to stick, tough in a region where winter averages hover around 4-10°C (40-50°F). Cold air depth is shallow here, often just 500-1000 meters.
  • Moisture: The Gulf of Mexico is the juice, but delivery is spotty—storms need a strong low-pressure system to tap it fully.
  • Duration: Sustained heavy snow rarely lasts over 12-24 hours before warm air or rain intrudes.
  • Snow ratio: Near 0°C, snow’s wet, with 8:1 to 12:1 snow-to-liquid ratios (8-12 cm snow per 1 cm melted water), not the fluffy 20:1 of colder climates.

Historical Benchmark​

The 1993 Storm of the Century is the gold standard: 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) fell across parts of Northeast Georgia (e.g., Gainesville) and Upstate SC (e.g., Spartanburg) in 24 hours. That’s 1.5-2 mm/hour liquid water equivalent (LWE), or 15-20 mm total, at a 10:1 ratio. Peak rates might’ve hit 2-3 inches/hour (50-75 mm/hour) briefly. This was a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100-year event—Arctic cold, a bomb cyclone, and Gulf moisture all synced up.

Pushing the Envelope​

For an upper limit, crank those factors harder:
  1. Cold: A deeper Arctic outbreak locks in -2°C to 0°C (28-32°F) at the surface, with a 1500-meter cold layer—rarer but possible (e.g., 1982’s cold snap).
  2. Moisture and lift: A Miller A coastal low deepens to 960 mb (think 1993 on steroids), pulling 5-6 g/m³ water vapor from a 15°C (59°F) Gulf, with updrafts hitting 1 m/s over 12-18 hours.
  3. Precip rate: Sustained 5-10 mm/hour LWE (0.5-1 inch/hour liquid), double the 1993 average, matching the Southeast’s heaviest snow bursts (e.g., 2014’s 3-4 mm/hour LWE peaks).
  4. Duration: Stretch it to 24-36 hours before warm air wins—longer than typical but not impossible with a stalled front.

Calculation​

  • LWE total: 10 mm/hour × 24 hours = 240 mm (9.4 inches liquid), or 5 mm/hour × 36 hours = 180 mm (7.1 inches liquid). Split the difference: 200 mm (8 inches LWE) as a realistic max.
  • Snow depth: At 10:1 (wet snow, typical here), 200 mm LWE = 2000 mm = 200 cm = 80 inches. At 8:1 (super wet), 160 cm = 64 inches. At 12:1 (slightly drier), 240 cm = 94 inches.

Reality Check​

  • 1993: 20 inches in 24 hours is 50% of this, with a weaker rate (1.5-2 mm/hour LWE). Doubling duration and rate isn’t crazy—storms like the 1927 Vermont flood hit 9 inches LWE (rain) in 24 hours, and snow can scale similarly.
  • Southeast analogs: Asheville (higher elevation) saw 36 inches in 1993; Columbia, SC, got 14 inches in 1973. Lowland Piedmont maxes lag but can stretch past 20 inches with perfect alignment.
  • Climate cap: Beyond 36 hours or 10 mm/hour LWE, warmth usually flips it to rain—think 1989’s Carolina ice storm, where cold held but totals stayed modest.

Uppermost Total​

A realistic ceiling is 60-80 inches (150-200 cm) in a single storm over 24-36 hours—say, 6-10 mm/hour LWE for 30 hours at 10:1. Call it 70 inches (178 cm) as a round, plausible max: triple 1993’s total, with doubled rate and 50% more time. That’s 7 inches LWE (180 mm), or 70 inches snow at 10:1, maybe peaking at 4-6 inches/hour briefly. It’d take a once-in-500-year setup—1993’s big brother—but it’s within the realm of physics for this region before rain or melting cuts it off.
So, 70 inches is the uppermost realistic snow total for a winter storm in these spots—epic, rare, but not impossible.
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Grok said the upstate is "lucky to see a dusting for most winters". Ouch... and weird because that's completely wrong. Unless he defines lucky as like a 90% chance of happening.
 
Makeitsnow said:
I figured id share this because it gave me chills and a laugh. I asked grok what is the maximum possible snow rate in non mountain locations in ne ga and the upstate. Then I asked what are the odds of it happening each winter. I then asked what is the upper most realistic amounts possible and well....lol


In Northeast Georgia and the Upstate of South Carolina—non-mountain, low-elevation areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—the maximum snowfall rate is constrained by the region’s climate and geography. These areas sit in the Piedmont, where winters are mild, temperatures rarely dip far below freezing, and heavy snow is uncommon due to limited cold air and moisture convergence. The question is about the upper physical limit, so we’ll push the atmospheric conditions to their plausible max while staying realistic for this specific region.
Snowfall rate depends on liquid water equivalent (LWE) precipitation and the snow-to-liquid ratio. At these elevations, near 0°C (32°F), snow tends to be wet and dense, with ratios of 8:1 to 12:1 (8-12 cm of snow per 1 cm of melted water), unlike fluffier 20:1 snow in colder, drier climates. The key factors are:
  • Moisture: Needs a strong feed, like Gulf of Mexico warmth meeting a cold front.
  • Lift: Requires intense upward motion, typically from a deep low-pressure system or front.
  • Temperature: Must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) at the surface and aloft to keep it snow, not rain.
The Southeast rarely sees extreme precipitation rates. Record rain events—like tropical storms—top out at 25-50 mm/hour (1-2 inches/hour) LWE, but snow needs colder air, which caps things lower. The best setup for this region is a Miller A-type coastal low (a nor’easter tracking up the Atlantic) or a rare overrunning event where cold air gets trapped under a warm, moist flow. Lake-effect snow’s not a factor here—no Great Lakes nearby.
Looking at regional extremes:
  • The 1993 Storm of the Century dumped 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) across parts of Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC in 24 hours, averaging 0.6-0.8 inches/hour (15-20 mm/hour) of snow, or 1.5-2 mm/hour LWE at a 10:1 ratio. Peak hourly rates likely hit 2-3 inches (50-75 mm/hour), or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE.
  • A 2014 snowstorm in the Upstate dropped 6-8 inches (15-20 cm) in 6 hours, averaging 1-1.3 inches/hour (25-33 mm/hour), or 2.5-3.3 mm/hour LWE.
Pushing the limit, imagine a perfect storm: a bomb cyclone pulls Gulf moisture into a stalled Arctic front, with temperatures locked at 0-1°C and dynamic lift at 1 m/s (extreme but possible). Saturated air at 0°C holds 4.8 g/m³ of water vapor. If it’s wrung out at max efficiency over a 1-2 km deep layer, you might get 10-15 mm/hour LWE—on par with the heaviest observed snow events in the Southeast. At a 10:1 ratio, that’s 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth. A fleeting burst could spike higher—say, 20 mm/hour LWE (200 mm/hour or 8 inches/hour of snow)—but sustaining it is tough with the region’s shallow cold air and marginal temps.
Compare this to colder climates: Tug Hill, NY, hit 12 inches/hour (300 mm/hour) in a lake-effect band, but that’s 700 miles north with deeper cold and lake moisture. Northeast Georgia and the Upstate lack that setup. Historical data caps sustained rates here at 50-75 mm/hour (2-3 inches/hour) of snow, or 5-7.5 mm/hour LWE, based on storms like 1993. The absolute max, stretching physics, might touch 150-200 mm/hour (6-8 inches/hour) of snow in a one-off, hour-long burst—10-20 mm/hour LWE—before warmth or moisture limits kick in.
So, the realistic ceiling for non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate SC is about 100-150 mm/hour (4-6 inches/hour) of snow depth, with a theoretical max nudging 200 mm/hour (8 inches/hour) under a once-in-a-millennium setup. Beyond that, you’re melting into rain or defying the region’s climate.

Rough Estimate​

  • 4-6 inches/hour: About a 1-in-500 to 1-in-1000 chance per winter—0.1-0.2%. Optimistically, call it 1 in 300 (0.33%) if milder cold/moisture combos sneak through.
  • 8 inches/hour: Closer to 1 in 2000 (0.05%) or less, edging into theoretical territory.
So, each winter, you’re looking at roughly a 0.1-0.3% chance (1 in 300 to 1 in 1000) for a 4-6 inch/hour event, and 0.05% or lower (1 in 2000+) for 8 inches/hour. It’s not impossible—1993 proves the region can get hammered—but it’s a long shot, like drawing a royal flush. Most winters, you’d be lucky to see a dusting, let alone a blizzard breaking records.

To determine the realistic uppermost possible snow total for a winter storm in non-mountain Northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina—low-elevation Piedmont areas around 300-600 feet (90-180 meters) above sea level—we need to consider the region’s climate constraints and the most extreme plausible weather setup. This isn’t about theoretical maxes with sci-fi conditions but a ceiling grounded in meteorology and historical analogs, stretched to the edge of what’s believable.

Key Limits​

  • Temperature: Surface temps must stay at or below 2°C (35.6°F) for snow to stick, tough in a region where winter averages hover around 4-10°C (40-50°F). Cold air depth is shallow here, often just 500-1000 meters.
  • Moisture: The Gulf of Mexico is the juice, but delivery is spotty—storms need a strong low-pressure system to tap it fully.
  • Duration: Sustained heavy snow rarely lasts over 12-24 hours before warm air or rain intrudes.
  • Snow ratio: Near 0°C, snow’s wet, with 8:1 to 12:1 snow-to-liquid ratios (8-12 cm snow per 1 cm melted water), not the fluffy 20:1 of colder climates.

Historical Benchmark​

The 1993 Storm of the Century is the gold standard: 14-20 inches (35-50 cm) fell across parts of Northeast Georgia (e.g., Gainesville) and Upstate SC (e.g., Spartanburg) in 24 hours. That’s 1.5-2 mm/hour liquid water equivalent (LWE), or 15-20 mm total, at a 10:1 ratio. Peak rates might’ve hit 2-3 inches/hour (50-75 mm/hour) briefly. This was a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100-year event—Arctic cold, a bomb cyclone, and Gulf moisture all synced up.

Pushing the Envelope​

For an upper limit, crank those factors harder:
  1. Cold: A deeper Arctic outbreak locks in -2°C to 0°C (28-32°F) at the surface, with a 1500-meter cold layer—rarer but possible (e.g., 1982’s cold snap).
  2. Moisture and lift: A Miller A coastal low deepens to 960 mb (think 1993 on steroids), pulling 5-6 g/m³ water vapor from a 15°C (59°F) Gulf, with updrafts hitting 1 m/s over 12-18 hours.
  3. Precip rate: Sustained 5-10 mm/hour LWE (0.5-1 inch/hour liquid), double the 1993 average, matching the Southeast’s heaviest snow bursts (e.g., 2014’s 3-4 mm/hour LWE peaks).
  4. Duration: Stretch it to 24-36 hours before warm air wins—longer than typical but not impossible with a stalled front.

Calculation​

  • LWE total: 10 mm/hour × 24 hours = 240 mm (9.4 inches liquid), or 5 mm/hour × 36 hours = 180 mm (7.1 inches liquid). Split the difference: 200 mm (8 inches LWE) as a realistic max.
  • Snow depth: At 10:1 (wet snow, typical here), 200 mm LWE = 2000 mm = 200 cm = 80 inches. At 8:1 (super wet), 160 cm = 64 inches. At 12:1 (slightly drier), 240 cm = 94 inches.

Reality Check​

  • 1993: 20 inches in 24 hours is 50% of this, with a weaker rate (1.5-2 mm/hour LWE). Doubling duration and rate isn’t crazy—storms like the 1927 Vermont flood hit 9 inches LWE (rain) in 24 hours, and snow can scale similarly.
  • Southeast analogs: Asheville (higher elevation) saw 36 inches in 1993; Columbia, SC, got 14 inches in 1973. Lowland Piedmont maxes lag but can stretch past 20 inches with perfect alignment.
  • Climate cap: Beyond 36 hours or 10 mm/hour LWE, warmth usually flips it to rain—think 1989’s Carolina ice storm, where cold held but totals stayed modest.

Uppermost Total​

A realistic ceiling is 60-80 inches (150-200 cm) in a single storm over 24-36 hours—say, 6-10 mm/hour LWE for 30 hours at 10:1. Call it 70 inches (178 cm) as a round, plausible max: triple 1993’s total, with doubled rate and 50% more time. That’s 7 inches LWE (180 mm), or 70 inches snow at 10:1, maybe peaking at 4-6 inches/hour briefly. It’d take a once-in-500-year setup—1993’s big brother—but it’s within the realm of physics for this region before rain or melting cuts it off.
So, 70 inches is the uppermost realistic snow total for a winter storm in these spots—epic, rare, but not impossible.
Click to expand...
Interesting, no where outside of like orchard park ny has ever seen a snowfall that great on the east coast. The record snowfall for nyc is only a smidge higher than Raleigh’s, even Boston record is like 31 inches . 1/500 chance for 70 inches of snow sounds way too high , I’d wager 1/100,000
 
What would everyone rate their winter in winter? I'd say D- or F+ for my backyard only because of all the misses to the south east north and west. The CLT snow hole is a painful thing
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
I would definitely say a B had 6 + inches in Youngsville!!


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As a lover of all things winter (storm tracking, cold temperatures as much as possible and obviously winter weather) I'd have to agree with a B for our area. We had three snows, a few other minor nuisance events and the most cold air in years. If we had been able to connect on a 6+" event or get a truly remarkable cold air outbreak with near zero or colder lows, it could have scored higher but as it was, this winter was far, far better than the recent disasters. As @Jimmy Hypocracy said, it made us all (well most of us) believe in winter again.
 
1300m said:
As a lover of all things winter (storm tracking, cold temperatures as much as possible and obviously winter weather) I'd have to agree with a B for our area. We had three snows, a few other minor nuisance events and the most cold air in years. If we had been able to connect on a 6+" event or get a truly remarkable cold air outbreak with near zero or colder lows, it could have scored higher but as it was, this winter was far, far better than the recent disasters. As @Jimmy Hypocracy said, it made us all (well most of us) believe in winter again.
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my skin looks opaque. Gonna be a lot of vitamin D deficient people heading into summer. I’m usually pretty tan year round but I looked in the mirror last week and I understood why @LickWx hates snow so much. I’m about ready to call this one. Prime ski weekend really sealed the deal on this winter. Even though I got snow holed this year I’m comfortable giving this winter a B. Had I gotten a 3+ inch event here it would have been an A+.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
my skin looks opaque. Gonna be a lot of vitamin D deficient people heading into summer. I’m usually pretty tan year round but I looked in the mirror last week and I understood why @LickWx hates snow so much. I’m about ready to call this one. Prime ski weekend really sealed the deal on this winter. Even though I got snow holed this year I’m comfortable giving this winter a B. Had I gotten a 3+ inch event here it would have been an A+.
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Come on jimmy go on get that farmers tan goin, that sun angle is cooking
 
1300m said:
As a lover of all things winter (storm tracking, cold temperatures as much as possible and obviously winter weather) I'd have to agree with a B for our area. We had three snows, a few other minor nuisance events and the most cold air in years. If we had been able to connect on a 6+" event or get a truly remarkable cold air outbreak with near zero or colder lows, it could have scored higher but as it was, this winter was far, far better than the recent disasters. As @Jimmy Hypocracy said, it made us all (well most of us) believe in winter again.
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Speaking of the cold, it's truly been remarkable compared to the blast furnace of the past couple years. I'm really going to miss all the cold walks with my family here soon. Used GSO because I think RDU is completely off it's rocker.
AIR_KGSO_air_temp.png

BTW - this is part of the Ambient Information Reporter tool (https://airquality.climate.ncsu.edu/air/). It's primarily intended for air quality monitoring, but has some pretty cool charts and maps but only goes back to 2016.
 
1300m said:
Speaking of the cold, it's truly been remarkable compared to the blast furnace of the past couple years. I'm really going to miss all the cold walks with my family here soon. Used GSO because I think RDU is completely off it's rocker.
View attachment 171285

BTW - this is part of the Ambient Information Reporter tool (https://airquality.climate.ncsu.edu/air/). It's primarily intended for air quality monitoring, but has some pretty cool charts and maps but only goes back to 2016.
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Cool tool, tho feb 10/2021 in gso was 49 degrees not 87! Woh could you imagine tho
 
Yep its Monday...... Thinking about Hanging up the Ol Laptop and calling it a career. Quitting the job and heading down stairs and cracking open a PBR and just letting w/e happen .....well, happen 😂. Bad thing is I dont get paid if i leave this one like I did at Railroad. That was the best 7 months ever, I threw my yearly physical .... they put me out of service but I still got Paid every friday bc i was tenured in my union unemployment. Then 19 days later Covid hit and it was perfect storm bc I couldn't find a specialist who would see me till like mid MAY. I remember that summer will never be topped .... Jekkyl Island and Savannah one weekend , Key west 3 weeks later then Myrtle 2 weeks later all While still getting paid. I mean you know bc " I cant hear and all" or atleast thats what my physical said. Tons of loopholes with union jobs. Best Spring/Summer ever. Anyone got any ideas ? lmao
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
my skin looks opaque. Gonna be a lot of vitamin D deficient people heading into summer. I’m usually pretty tan year round but I looked in the mirror last week and I understood why @LickWx hates snow so much. I’m about ready to call this one. Prime ski weekend really sealed the deal on this winter. Even though I got snow holed this year I’m comfortable giving this winter a B. Had I gotten a 3+ inch event here it would have been an A+.
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Yeah, March isn’t gonna pan out, imo. Time to stick a fork in this one.

Can’t complain. Solid B-. Snowed 3 times, below average January and a cold holiday season, end of December. Felt like the winters of yore. It made me think that we aren’t completely without hope in this hobby that disappoints so much.

Really frustrating to have so many near misses, but it did bring me some hope. We’ll see. Pretty good winter overall.
 
MBell said:
I'm in the winter is over camp lol. I was out in a tee and shorts today and did a 2.5 mile walk around Midtown with the pup, just a beautiful day with temps in the mid 60s!! Hooray!
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It is a nice break from the last couple weeks tbh but I'll be surprised if winter is totally over at least here

Of course it was last year but this isn't last year
 
I mean, 2" for the season sucks and yields a D on a quantitative basis. But fortunately, we don't grade solely on that. I give it a B because it was cold and we have had fun tracking things. Plus, contextually, when measured against the last few years, and given the expectations going in, this winter has far exceeded.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, March isn’t gonna pan out, imo. Time to stick a fork in this one.

Can’t complain. Solid B-. Snowed 3 times, below average January and a cold holiday season, end of December. Felt like the winters of yore. It made me think that we aren’t completely without hope in this hobby that disappoints so much.

Really frustrating to have so many near misses, but it did bring me some hope. We’ll see. Pretty good winter overall.
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afca6dd5b727ae096c96511ce1ecccbc.jpg


Does it make terrible that I’d still rate this a C- ? Mostly bc so much hype multiple times…. Had it been like this without MULTIPLE places that should see snow maybe once every lifetime and then places in Nc getting not one but 2 Plus Climo events. Meh W/E avg I guess so I will say not a D but if this is it…. Def a C range. I SAW snow 4x and was under 3 WWA/ 1WSW

This feels like returning 10 starters and somehow only going 7-5 and to Dukes Mayo bowl to play like Rutgers or something


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Brent said:
It is a nice break from the last couple weeks tbh but I'll be surprised if winter is totally over at least here

Of course it was last year but this isn't last year
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I wouldn't be shocked by a couple of mini cold spells, but I'd like to think anything wild is off the table this far south. We shall see though!!
 
Time to start thinking warmer weather and drought in the southeast, especially NC and SC. The GFS is fairly dry east of I-77 in both states and much of this area is already in moderate drought.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean, 2" for the season sucks and yields a D on a quantitative basis. But fortunately, we don't grade solely on that. I give it a B because it was cold and we have had fun tracking things. Plus, contextually, when measured against the last few years, and given the expectations going in, this winter has far exceeded.
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Kinda sucks tho you moved to the foothills and got a classic RDU season. That’s ok tho, those folks have had multiple 12 inch storms in the 2010s only a matter of time before you get another one
 
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