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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

RoddyPiper said:
Starting to notice an HRRR bias....

It will depict a -SN Ptype hours in advance, but as it gets closer to that hour of verification, it changes it to -IP. This has happened for the past 6 hours and is continuing with this run..... hmmmm
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The runs are off on temps stop looking at them


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Not to hurt anyone’s feelings, but I think you can stick a fork in central AL and GA’s chances at snow and possibly on north a little more. You need a miracle to overcome 3-4C temps at 850 and 950mb with a 20-30kt southerly LLJ with evaporative cooling alone. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but that is ugly.

Edit: In fact you may pull that warmth to that surface with heavy precip. Hahaha.
 
Lurking...used to post often years ago ha. I live in Midtown Atlanta, right on top of the connector. Currently 32.3/11.1. I'm anxious to get some exciting shots of the freeway chaos once this all begins! LOL! Looks like it's going to be a mess. Positive note is, I've seen a ton of trucks out on the freeway laying brine, so they are doing their best!

Best of luck to everyone, this one looks to have some surprises with it.
 
Arcc said:
Not to hurt anyone’s feelings, but I think you can stick a fork in central AL and GA’s chances at snow and possibly on north a little more. You need a miracle to overcome 3-4C temps at 850 and 950mb with a 20-30kt southerly LLJ with evaporative cooling alone. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but that is ugly.

Edit: Infact you may pull that warmth to that surface with heavy precip. Hahaha.
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Agreed. I hinged everything on dynamic/evaporative cooling, so we will see.
 
RoddyPiper said:
It's not a bias the HRRR has routinely if you ever follow it for places outside of your backyard. To answer your question, no. I simply pointed out a bias it is currently having. Get over yourself.
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sorry man that was definitely a little snarky on my part. but i have also been led astray by long range HRRR precip types, and for the most part i use it for mainly qpf purposes. it was always a source of hopium when i was always right on the cut line in raleigh
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Do you have the freezing rain map? That is my main concern in the ATL Metro?
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I don't think that we will see too many reports of major ice accrual from freezing rain (i.e. > 0.10"). Will probably be self-limiting considering there's no cold high feeding into this one and it's warming aloft. I'm expecting a little snow, a lot of sleet and a little freezing rain will be the main storyline for a lot of folks with this one when it's all said and done.
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1300m said:
I think it's just more sleet and less snow. Trending warmer aloft.
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This is exactly why I don't trust models anymore up until verification. After January 2017 which was the biggest bust in my 16 years of model watching, models can have dramatic adjustments just hours before verification. We'll see what happens in the morning, but expecting maybe a snow/sleet mix to heavy sleet to ice to possibly just plain rain if the wedge erodes faster than forecasted. I'd love to be wrong and surprised, but winter events simply never "overperform" for me and I really don't expect this one to.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
This is exactly why I don't trust models anymore up until verification. After January 2017 which was the biggest bust in my 16 years of model watching, models can have dramatic adjustments just hours before verification. We'll see what happens in the morning, but expecting maybe a snow/sleet mix to heavy sleet to ice to possibly just plain rain if the wedge erodes faster than forecasted. I'd love to be wrong and surprised, but winter events simply never "overperform" for me and I really don't expect this one to.
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For our areas, absent a burst of AM snow, I doubt the ZR will be impactful since we don't have much of a cold feed otherwise to battle latent heat release efficiently. Must have that 8AM thumping.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
This is exactly why I don't trust models anymore up until verification. After January 2017 which was the biggest bust in my 16 years of model watching, models can have dramatic adjustments just hours before verification. We'll see what happens in the morning, but expecting maybe a snow/sleet mix to heavy sleet to ice to possibly just plain rain if the wedge erodes faster than forecasted. I'd love to be wrong and surprised, but winter events simply never "overperform" for me and I really don't expect this one to.
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Well, honestly anyone who scores is playing with house money so to speak. If you threw this 500mb look out west without any other details or models, no one would say there is even a chance of frozen precip for a good portion of the board.

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ILMRoss said:
sorry man that was definitely a little snarky on my part. but i have also been led astray by long range HRRR precip types, and for the most part i use it for mainly qpf purposes. it was always a source of hopium when i was always right on the cut line in raleigh
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I’ve personally been burned by the HRRR before, too. Usually, if it’s on an island showing something, it’s just wrong and not seeing something the rest of the models aren’t, its higher resolution be damned.
 
Dallas struggling today was probably the canary in the coal mine. They actually got more QPF than forecasted, but that's because the WAA push was stronger than forecasted. At the end of the day, that screwed much of the metroplex and limited their snow totals massively.

But we'll see what happens in several hours. Still a chance this can surprise in a good way.
 
Arcc said:
Well, honestly anyone who scores is playing with house money so to speak. If you threw this 500mb look out west without any other details or models, no one would say there is even a chance of frozen precip for a good portion of the board.

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It's really is an unideal setup which is why I've been super skeptical all along....like this just isn't how Atlanta gets snowstorms. It relies way too much on a stagnant antecedent air mass being cold enough to start as snow and not get overwhelmed too quickly by a rapidly advancing warm front aloft....maybe in the North that can work because they're farther away from an ever-warming GOM, but not really for us.

But again I'll preface, I might be speaking too soon here so it's just a wait and see.
 
Euro FWIW

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Any ground truth to the radar in Northern Mississippi. My radar shows snow just curious.
 
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