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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

jackendrickwx said:
Feel like the 120-168 range is where we’ve lost most of our potential storms in the past few years. Big day today (and tomorrow).
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Yeah, I feel like we'll get clarity around which scenario we're dealing with by 0z Tuesday. The reason for what you noted above is (checks notes - yep) excuse #6 - an important shortwave hasn't come ashore. 🙂 I would think all the players should be on the field by 0z Tuesday.
 
It looks now that the best chance (which seems to be growing smaller the past few days) for us along and south of US 80 at least in Alabama, would be on the wraparound, could be wrong though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I feel like we'll get clarity around which scenario we're dealing with by 0z Tuesday. The reason for what you noted above is (checks notes - yep) excuse #6 - an important shortwave hasn't come ashore. 🙂 I would think all the players should be on the field by 0z Tuesday.
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And we’ll prolly swing around some between now and then unless they want to play nice and lock on like they did for todays system
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I feel like we'll get clarity around which scenario we're dealing with by 0z Tuesday. The reason for what you noted above is (checks notes - yep) excuse #6 - an important shortwave hasn't come ashore. 🙂 I would think all the players should be on the field by 0z Tuesday.
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We'll we could put it this way. In about 36hrs we'll see if the current storm pass has any positive effects on the next storm's track/temps.
 
Just catching up. I don't like the overnight trend to more amplification and that worries me going forward. The more recent runs hook us back into a little weaker and colder. Just something to keep in mind, if we amp and have to fight off an advancing warm nose, they tend to come in faster and stronger than modeled most of the time, especially NEGA and upstate. I think most of us will do better with the overrunning, weaker low, and colder scenario. Cold is always the biggest key.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Just catching up. I don't like the overnight trend to more amplification and that worries me going forward. The more recent runs hook us back into a little weaker and colder. Just something to keep in mind, if we amp and have to fight off an advancing warm nose, they tend to come in faster and stronger than modeled most of the time, especially NEGA and upstate. I think most of us will do better with the overrunning, weaker low, and colder scenario. Cold is always the biggest key.
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Really it’s a split between snow and ice. Most likely we will get both in this set up. Might as well get ready for that
 
Just before we get into the full set of runs i don't think it's impossible we have one op run producing a memorable snowstorm while another is rain while a 3rd might be mediocre. With the wave interactions to our west please remember to not go way too high or too low today and overall trends that can be found are still more important than snow colors over your house.

Thanks
 
IMBY ha, but this run is basically inches away from being an ice storm for me.

Would be like, yeah, yeah, the ICON has a warm bias, but the thing is, is I wonder if whether it's been out to lunch as this is a big jump from what I think the 6z was PROBABLY going to look like if it continued.

Edit: Yeah, this isn't pretty if it had any chance of occurring:

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This coming weekend's storm is going to be a forecasting nightmare with so many solutions depending on the model you put your trust in. More will be known by Tuesday when the first system is out of the picture and some of the energy for the system in this thread can be sampled. Hopefully there will be plenty of snow pictures on this thread for some of us to enjoy and most of us will at least see some wintry precipitation.
 
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