• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

rburrel2 said:
06z Euro AI trended just a little less amped/flatter with the trough and colder compared to 00z. Also trended 3-4 hours faster with the storm. Still plenty of qpf for everybody. An absolutely perfect run for the upstate.
Click to expand...

And Central NC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
rburrel2 said:
06z Euro AI trended just a little less amped/more broad/and flatter with the trough and colder compared to 00z. Also trended 3-4 hours faster with the storm. Still plenty of qpf for everybody. An absolutely perfect run for the upstate.
Click to expand...
Yes the slowing down was screwing us a few days ago love to see the models speed it up as we close in on <100hrs
 
rburrel2 said:
06z Euro AI trended just a little less amped/flatter with the trough and colder compared to 00z. Also trended 3-4 hours faster with the storm. Still plenty of qpf for everybody. An absolutely perfect run for the upstate.
Click to expand...
Yep, we need to be pulling for the weaker miller A option with the next model runs. We had that with the 0z GFS but lost it at 6z (to miller B, warmer). Maybe the 6z euro will turn the tide (again).

From RAH (before 6z runs of course):

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 354 AM Sunday...

Tuesday through Thursday: Central NC gets largely stuck under zonal
flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday as cold high pressure oozes east
across the central to eastern US. Highs around 40 and overnight lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s are expected Tuesday/Wednesday
night. Flow aloft turns more nwly Thursday as a re-enforcing shot of
cold air accompanies a potent short-wave aloft. This will usher in
even colder temperatures, with daytime highs struggling to reach the
mid to upper 30s Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, models continue to hint at a potential system
developing over the Gulf of Mexico and riding through the southeast.
It`s still a bit early, but there continues to be enough agreement
amongst ensembles to at least include a chance for rain/snow mix
Friday evening into Saturday. However, details pertaining to any
accumulations and dominant p-type are too difficult to discern this
far out. The latest 00Z GFS is more bullish on snow potential as it
maintains a more classic Miller A scenario with the low sliding off
the Carolina coast. On the other hand, the Euro suggest a more
Miller B scenario, riding the low through Kentucky and giving way to
a secondary low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This scenario would
promote a cold rain over central NC. It`s worth repeating though
that it`s not worth getting caught up in single deterministic runs
at this point. However, given a good amount of ensemble members
suggesting some winter weather potential, it`s worth keeping an eye
on as we progress through the next several days.

&&
 
FallsLake said:
Yep, we need to be pulling for the weaker miller A option with the next model runs. We had that with the 0z GFS but lost it at 6z (to miller B, warmer). Maybe the 6z euro will turn the tide (again).

From RAH (before 6z runs of course):

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 354 AM Sunday...

Tuesday through Thursday: Central NC gets largely stuck under zonal
flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday as cold high pressure oozes east
across the central to eastern US. Highs around 40 and overnight lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s are expected Tuesday/Wednesday
night. Flow aloft turns more nwly Thursday as a re-enforcing shot of
cold air accompanies a potent short-wave aloft. This will usher in
even colder temperatures, with daytime highs struggling to reach the
mid to upper 30s Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, models continue to hint at a potential system
developing over the Gulf of Mexico and riding through the southeast.
It`s still a bit early, but there continues to be enough agreement
amongst ensembles to at least include a chance for rain/snow mix
Friday evening into Saturday. However, details pertaining to any
accumulations and dominant p-type are too difficult to discern this
far out. The latest 00Z GFS is more bullish on snow potential as it
maintains a more classic Miller A scenario with the low sliding off
the Carolina coast. On the other hand, the Euro suggest a more
Miller B scenario, riding the low through Kentucky and giving way to
a secondary low over the Delmarva Peninsula. This scenario would
promote a cold rain over central NC. It`s worth repeating though
that it`s not worth getting caught up in single deterministic runs
at this point. However, given a good amount of ensemble members
suggesting some winter weather potential, it`s worth keeping an eye
on as we progress through the next several days.

&&
Click to expand...
06z regular Euro is out and it did turn the tide... very weak miller A. To the point where we need it stronger.
 
Last edited:
rburrel2 said:
06z regular Euro is out and it did turn the tide... very weak miller A. To the point where we need it stronger.
Click to expand...
I know it has already been stated, but I do not believe it can be stressed enough how finicky these phased/not phased systems can be. Even a slight additional infection of energy or timing of phasing can have a huge effect on the tilt and therefore the outcome of systems. We are seeing this with the overnight and early morning runs. Also, I do not think ensembles are as helpful here, as those little adjustments in the plots can also skew them severely.
 
Last edited:
I don't hate where we're at even with the 6z runs. Anyone noticing the trends should see this is likely going to be a mix mess along I-20 but about 20 to 30 north should be safe for snow from atl to Charlotte at least. The energy is still sorting itself out but I'm confident this won't cut and someone's getting snow.
 
Stormdoc said:
I know it has already been stated, but I do not believe it can be stressed enough how finicky these phased/not phased systems can be. Even a slight additional infection of energy or timing of phasing can have a huge effect on the tilt and therefore the outcome of systems. We are seeing this with the overnight and early morning runs. Also, I do not thing ensembles are as helpful here, as those little adjustments in the plots can also skew them severely.
Click to expand...
This is worth stressing and it makes me quite in awe of those who seem so confident they know what is going to happen.
 
Been noticing the energy coming in late on Gfs with cold air aloft. Usually I would think this would bring in warmer gulf air ,Could this phasing actually bring in colder upper air temps into the western part of the storm?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Noticeable trends on the AIFS. More confluence. And earlier phasing, the intial ULL itself is starting to speed up a bit while the northern stream is starting to lag behind View attachment 159844 View attachment 159843
Click to expand...
Mby comment but earlier phasing makes me nervous. If we keep the 50/50 low and better confluence in the NE it might be fine but it gets extremely finicky for us further east
 
Man… feels like old times with CAE missing just to the North. But ya know, I ain’t even mad. I’m just glad that we are trending better East of the Apps for once. Long Winter ahead. Let’s keep the good trends going!
 
Would love to see the colder air trends continue. Birmingham folks seem to be on the dividing line on many of the ensembles, with both the GEFS and eps still showing some very large members. That eps run last night was mind blowing and the 06z GEFS wasn’t so bad either. Lay that snowpack heavy and hard today.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Noticeable trends on the AIFS. More confluence. And earlier phasing, the intial ULL itself is starting to speed up a bit while the northern stream is starting to lag behind View attachment 159844 View attachment 159843
Click to expand...
It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see the next cycles start to pull the Baja Low ahead and the northern stream s/w act as kicker with the way trends have been lately... just to throw yet another monkey wrench into the toolbox.
 
I'd feel a LOT better about this storm for north central Ga. if we can trend to at least a better meso-in-situ CAD. None of the models show a push of colder air at the lower levels from the NE. The flow is easterly to ESE depending on how far south the surface low passes, but the weak HP over the Mid-Atlantic is of little help. The return flow over NC would have me worried there too.

Perhaps, the globals are not resolving the CAD properly yet?
1736085603896.png
 
Metwannabe said:
Mby comment but earlier phasing makes me nervous. If we keep the 50/50 low and better confluence in the NE it might be fine but it gets extremely finicky for us further east
Click to expand...
Man I've been all aboard the leave the cutoff largely behind and mainly use the northern stream with some moisture infusion from the cutoff solution as the best way to win here. This solution is pins and needles with the warm nose but the ceiling of what we could do if enough cold is available as the low deepens just offshore is tempting. I see pennywise in the sewer and I'm trying to not believe him
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top