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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

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From GSP

As of 300 AM Sunday: Shortwave energy will carve out a deep trough
across the Northeast to Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday,
which will bring a reinforcing dry cold front thru the forecast
area. The front may bring a round of stratocu along the TN border
and breezy conditions across the mountains Wednesday aftn into
Wednesday night. This combined with temps still 10-15 deg below
normal may produce wind chills around -5F across the Northern
Mountains thru early Thursday morning. Winds should subside and
skies become clear Thursday, but highs will remain chilly.

The latest guidance seems to be trending toward a distinct southern
stream upper low in northwestern Mexico that interacts with a
digging trough over the Great Plains. This will likely produce a
sfc wave near the Texas Coast late Thursday. This wave may advance
east along/near the Gulf Coast and spread moisture across the
Southeast Friday into Friday night. The latest NBM already has
likely PoPs spreading into the forecast area Friday night. This
precip would likely fall into chilly air, which depending on the
thermal profiles, may result in freezing rain, snow, or a wintry
mix for our area. The 00z GFS shows mostly a RA/SN event, with
accumulating snow across nearly the entire forecast area Friday
aftn thru Friday night. The 00z ECMWF has trended toward the GFS,
but is still more of a wintry mix setup with a warm nose punching
into the area. For what it`s worth, the Canadian keeps the system
suppressed and is mostly dry for our area. A little over a majority
of the ensemble members have measurable precip Friday-Friday night,
with the mean sfc temps below freezing. So confidence is increasing
on some type of wintry event late Friday or Saturday. PoPs were
held in the chance range with a rain/snow fcst for now due to so
much uncertainty. This system will definitely bear watching.
 
From CAE (Columbia NWS)

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Dry and cold through the period with subfreezing temperatures
at night.

- The next storm system arrives late Friday into Saturday. A
period of wintry precipitation is possible, especially north
and west of I-20.

Confidence is high in the potential for an extended period of
cold and dry conditions Tuesday through early Friday. Several
days of daytime temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s are
expected. While anomalously cold, we should remain above record
territory during the mid to late week period. The coldest night
appears to be Wednesday Night, when the center of high pressure
will be closest to us, but even then confidence in a Cold
Weather Advisory is low at this time.

The next storm system arrives late Friday into Saturday. Given
the antecedent conditions, the possibility of wintry
precipitation is non-zero but will be highly dependent on the
track and timing of the system. The latest deterministic GFS
shows a track to our south, which could allow enough cold air to
remain in place or filter in to produce a period of snow. By
comparison, the latest deterministic Euro has a track to our
north but even in this solution, there could be some frozen
precipitation, possibly freezing rain, at the onset if the cold
air is difficult to erode. The Canadian is still late to the
party by about 24 hours but also shows the southern track and
some wintry precipitation in the north. Given the variety of
solutions, capped PoPs at 44 percent and went with a rain/snow
mix in locations with subfreezing temperatures Friday night.
Bottom line is that the situation needs to be monitored but
confidence is too low to lean towards any specific solution at
this time.
 
rburrel2 said:
Are we more worried about too far north/amped track or too far south/flat track now? Hard to say...
Click to expand...
No use worrying. Both options are still on the table. Let’s see where the models go the next 48 hours. I tend to lean away from the most extreme phased outcome at this point, but we really don’t know. It’s a tricky setup.
 
If I’m a betting man, this will be Jan 2022 from a surface perspective. The H5 setup is different out west but the outcome remains the same. You’ll see stronger confluence and colder lower level temps as we get closer with the LP moving around the cold dome. Just a matter of how far it gets north. Front end snow that we will just have to wait until we get in the 3K and HRRR range to see how long it takes to change over. You can get some big totals on that front end thump it just depends on how long we hold off the warm nose.
 
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