Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[strongwxnc]

I tell ya one thing, it's apparent that experts (folks at the NWS) aren't buying any sort of amped system. The latest CPC outlooks are cold and mainly dry. Then you got what billy boy said out of GSP saying cold and dry. So yeh... Take whatever you want from that.

I’ve been down this road too many times. I would lean on the words from GSP.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

18z icon


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[Southern Track]

18z icon


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Was about to post this. Not hating that look.

 

[rburrel2]

Looks like it was gonna be another gulf coast scraper. Which is better than what most of the 12z guidance had for us.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Looks like it was gonna be another gulf coast scraper. Which is better than what most of the 12z guidance had for us.

It had a decent cold press with snow breaking out in central TX


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[Tokenfreak]

GFS 18Z running now. Fingers crossed but not very hopefully.

 

[chapelhillwx]

I don't post a lot anymore but I just want to say that this is the time frame where we traditionally start to get bad looks and the models "lose" our storm. There are a few major things to take into consideration here: We have a major mid-latitude cyclone that will traverse the country between now and the time frame for our potential storm. It's never a good idea to buy into the models depiction of the next storm in line before the first storm occurs and all antecedent conditions are set for the models to ingest. It is a mistake some of us make every year. I find it funny that most of us(myself included) STILL get caught up in run to run changes after having been burned over and over and over again! That being said, however, IMO we always want suppression and cold at this range. Insufficient cold air is almost always the problem. Give me a weak storm signal in an overall favorable synoptic pattern at this range all day. Miller A bombs almost never work out. That's why we are so enthralled by them. At the end of the day we all just wanna see the ground white so let's be thankful that the pattern more or less supports this idea at the very least and back away from the ledge.

I saw the avatar and was flabbergasted by the use of the word "antecedent" and "synoptic" but realized you are a different guy.

 

[NCSNOW]

Over amped still gets you in the game. Piedmont Carolinas might want a more suppressed look

No, hes right. On this one Triad back NW needs it amped or we get nada. Every man for himself as storm 5 says.

 

[iGRXY]

S/W is weaker at 81 vs 12z

 

[NCSNOW]

Less chance of getting tucked in the 4 corners forever

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ridge axis above it is more positive tilt…

 

[iGRXY]

Confluence looks better at 102

 

[Stevo24]

Due to the sw being weaker I believe this is going to be a winner!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Heights slightly lower to our NW is better. Thats what we been losing the last couple of runs

 

[iGRXY]

SE Canada Vortex is better this run and slower.

 

[Ross]

some little details a better here but for the most part the s/w seems the same in my eyes, a hair slower. we'll see

 

[SD]

Heights slightly lower to our NW is better. Thats what we been losing the last couple of runs View attachment 159138

I think it digs into the baja and the trailer goes over the top and misses the phase

 

[griteater]

I think it digs into the baja and the trailer goes over the top and misses the phase

Yeah it looks more Euro like so far

 

[iGRXY]

some little details a better here but for the most part the s/w seems the same in my eyes, a hair slower. we'll see

East looks better, west looks the same

 

[NCSNOW]

Colder verse 12z. At 120 540 thickness line is 60-80 miles futher south

 

[Ross]

not really my expertise but feel like we want the ridge in SW canada to trend weaker since this feels like a "wavebreak"

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Baja low is more SW…. But what makes this run more interesting is the N/S energy more stronger from the rip and more entrenched further west in Canada

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 159144

Whew…that’s complicated


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[Rain Cold]

View attachment 159144

I keep seeing the exact same image on every model suite. This sucks. That pig in the SW really needs to move.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Hr 138 temps in southern IL slightly below zero


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[beanskip]

Looks more like 6z.

 

[Bigedd09]

May be interesting for the carolina's

 

[iGRXY]

The 50/50 is doing all it can to give us a fighting chance but you know

 

[griteater]

We may have us a little sumpin if the wave digging down thru the central plains will just keep diggin and miss the Baja wave

 

[ForsythSnow]

Cold air is actually digging in this time instead of just riding above. This may be better for more than just the Carolinas.

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like energy getting left behind

 

[SD]

We may have us a little sumpin if the wave digging down thru the central plains will just keep diggin and miss the Baja wave

This is the way

 

[Bigedd09]

Northern MS, AL getting in on the action

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Looks like energy getting left behind

Probably for the better if that energy gets left behind/maybe tapped just a bit, because we've seen that mean a rain bomb.

 

[NCSNOW]

Be nice to get lakes low out of the way up top

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

540 line crashing south, surface low SE Tx coast


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[Bigedd09]

 

[iGRXY]

Forget the baja low. If anything let it drift off further to the west. The northern plains is our best chance

 

[Mitch West]

This is the way

Yeh SD said it earlier. Bump the Baja wave. Let’s rage with the drop down the middle & connect the rage