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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Jessy89 said:
Exactly my point more so TV Mets saw it to. Chris justice quote: I’d be surprised if we get through this pattern without snow.


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and honestly he might still be right… if there is anything I took away from the 12z suites is that there is no model consensus one way or the other. We talk all the time about one storm needed to get out of the way for the models to really latch on to what the next one does. That might well be what we’re seeing right now.
 
Now guys;

- The energy hasn't been properly sampled yet
- every option is still on the table
- we didn't want to be in the jackpot x number of day out
- the same models that were wrong last week could be wrong this week
- all we need is for X to happen and we're back
- we're due/it has to snow again one day

am I talking anyone back from the ledge?
 
In all seriousness this thing isn’t even close to dead in the water. Not even 36 hours ago we were worried about this thing going to Orlando and OTS. Now we have an apps cutter on SOME of the modeling. Logic says the answer probably is somewhere in the middle and lucky for us that middle would mean a winter storm of some kind. Still plenty of time. Just look at the 6th storm. 3 days away and it’s trending south quite a bit. Point being until you get to day 4 (that’s sad as hell) we honestly don’t even have a clue and even at day 4 there’s still a ton that has to be ironed out.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Eh, it's not the historical cold that was depicted at times before the EPO was lost, but I'd say that this is plenty cold for us in the SE...

View attachment 159083

Problem is that the low in the SW cuts off and turns, and helps pump a ridge, and then ejects for a rain bomb after we warm up.

We did see the Euro put out a rain bomb at least once previously, but I have to say, if the 0z shows this, you can stick a fork and give credit to...the GFS.
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it's barely below normal for a low then
 
iGRXY said:
In all seriousness this thing isn’t even close to dead in the water. Not even 36 hours ago we were worried about this thing going to Orlando and OTS. Now we have an apps cutter on SOME of the modeling. Logic says the answer probably is somewhere in the middle and lucky for us that middle would mean a winter storm of some kind. Still plenty of time. Just look at the 6th storm. 3 days away and it’s trending south quite a bit. Point being until you get to day 4 (that’s sad as hell) we honestly don’t even have a clue and even at day 4 there’s still a ton that has to be ironed out.
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It really is down to the energy. The OPs and ENS are not in any agreement with placement at all across all models.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It really is down to the energy. The OPs and ENS are not in any agreement with placement at all across all models.
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I mean, just by their nature, OPs don't take into account variables so they aren't really anticipating anything outside the currently ingested data. But as we see, their data points can be quite different six hours later; which is why we can get such vastly different solutions from run to run. Ensembles continue (for the most part) to show the same variety of outcomes we were seeing before because they account for some of those variables. This isn't over now, anymore than it was settled yesterday or whenever.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Now guys;

- The energy hasn't been properly sampled yet
- every option is still on the table
- we didn't want to be in the jackpot x number of day out
- the same models that were wrong last week could be wrong this week
- all we need is for X to happen and we're back
- we're due/it has to snow again one day

am I talking anyone back from the ledge?
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You forgot
- it has to do something in this pattern.
 
GSP AFD Met sounds disappointed too...:)

"By the end of the period, there could be some return moisture and perhaps precipitation chances, but confidence
remains very low at this point. At this point, the chance for snow east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less."
 
griteater said:
GSP AFD Met sounds disappointed too...:)

"By the end of the period, there could be some return moisture and perhaps precipitation chances, but confidence
remains very low at this point. At this point, the chance for snow east of the mountains is close to zero, despite what long term guidance may have hinted at in past recent runs. Guidance has temperatures during this time a few degrees below normal with overnight temps dipping into the teens for the mountains and 20s elsewhere. All in all, the extended is dry, cold, and snow-less."
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Bold saying that the chance for snow is "close to zero", seeing as though we are 180+hrs away from the possible system..
 
bouncycorn said:
Bold saying that the chance for snow is "close to zero", seeing as though we are 180+hrs away from the possible system..
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So, are they sayin they have high confidence here? Seems odd when they struggle with confidence levels even 72hrs out at times.
 
CaryWx said:
So, are they sayin they have high confidence here? Seems odd when they struggle with confidence levels even 72hrs out at times.
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And northern parts of NC east of the mountains look like they could see some snow by Tuesday. I feel like whoever wrote that was raging a lil bit.
 
I tell ya one thing, it's apparent that experts (folks at the NWS) aren't buying any sort of amped system. The latest CPC outlooks are cold and mainly dry. Then you got what billy boy said out of GSP saying cold and dry. So yeh... Take whatever you want from that.
 
I don't post a lot anymore but I just want to say that this is the time frame where we traditionally start to get bad looks and the models "lose" our storm. There are a few major things to take into consideration here: We have a major mid-latitude cyclone that will traverse the country between now and the time frame for our potential storm. It's never a good idea to buy into the models depiction of the next storm in line before the first storm occurs and all antecedent conditions are set for the models to ingest. It is a mistake some of us make every year. I find it funny that most of us(myself included) STILL get caught up in run to run changes after having been burned over and over and over again! That being said, however, IMO we always want suppression and cold at this range. Insufficient cold air is almost always the problem. Give me a weak storm signal in an overall favorable synoptic pattern at this range all day. Miller A bombs almost never work out. That's why we are so enthralled by them. At the end of the day we all just wanna see the ground white so let's be thankful that the pattern more or less supports this idea at the very least and back away from the ledge.
 
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