Apparently I've been looking at too many model runs - that was not the current 18z GEFS 
. My apologies. Continue on while I take a break....
. My apologies. Continue on while I take a break....
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Psalm 148:8
Member
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- Dec 25, 2016
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Dang! Looking at those maps!! It was like calling powerball numbers!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Trends like these put a smile on my face
Yeah the reds are getting redder up top yall
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Damn that pattern looks amazing.
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like dropping the TPV over the 50/50 region for good measure.
The Strat PV is actually stronger than normal, but it’s just one of those winters thus far where the troposphere hasn’t coupled to it for some reason. 95-96 and 10-11 are two winters that had some good -AO / -NAO periods without good support from the stratosphere.
Reality is, these trends can reverse in a heartbeat, but good to see today
I mean these are some REALLY cold 850mb temps in the long range on several of these GEFS members. Some big time arctic air looks to be headed to the lower 48! I’d imagine we see some intense Arctic front clippers.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s hard to do much better than this.
If this verifies, we’ll see some potential cold/snow threats even down to the I-10 & I-20 corridors
If this verifies, we’ll see some potential cold/snow threats even down to the I-10 & I-20 corridors
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Arctic front clippers are incredibly underrated
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This might be one of those rare times where the old wives tale about thunder in winter occurring 10 days before snow actually happens
Twister
Member
Yep one came through upstate one year (can't remember when), It started snowing around 5pm and by 10pm there was 3" on the ground. They can work pretty good around here at times
Got cold
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Especially considering the air is getting colder behind the front so you’re increasing ratios as it goes along
Gefs has the main trough axis further west as well, probably gonna be a lot of hits to end out the run
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. 2 members was snowing at the end of the run. A couple had multiple snow events too.
You’re correct!
Time to go big dog hunting. Hopefully we keep the momentum up over the weekend with the NAO/AO trends we had today. Ceiling is much higher with high latitude blocking!
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John1122
Member
It happens imby probably 80 percent of the time it thunders in winter. It happened twice in December.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There are some monsters in there as we turn the page towards the 2nd week of January
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
~40-50% 1”+ snow probs on the GEFS. Nearly all of that comes after Jan 6-7.
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. Member 25 has 2 events over a foot 3 days apart. That would be legendary!
P03 would be the biggest kick in the man region in the history of kicks in the man regions I could only imagine the meltdown if Tampa got snow and people were still sitting on 0 to the north
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D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I thought that was the mean and almost ---- myself.
P27 is a roided out Jan 2011
Triplephase93
Member
That was an amazing storm. Had snow on the ground for close to 10 days
TWC app has snow here on the 10th. I know, it's a long way out at it's TWC. But just shows we at least have a chance with the upcoming pattern in January.
Euro AI continues to show a fail scenario of keeping the Pac Jet a bit too strong thru day 15. It has a storm that hits parts of the mid-Atlantic into the NE, then drops a strong, but quick hitting cold blast (with trough too far east)
Of course, the AI only has value when it shows more snow for mby. (sarcasm) Anything at hour 324 can't be off the table yet I guess. 
wow
Member
Put this within a week and I'm on board. What do I tell the grandkids when they are salivating on hour 600 gfs snow maps?
Yes yes this makes me feel better
I have been put in the experimental slight risk of heavy snowfall here in Southern Illinois
for January 4-7 .. so close but yet so farBrick Tamland
Member
It's kind of silly to be analyzing a post-300 GFS operational image, but it just illustrates the potential of this pattern.
You can see on the first image, the southern wave just out ahead of the northern stream wave. A slight difference in timing here could result in a phase, turning the trough negative giving us a true big dog. As is, a few frames later, you still get some light snow for some parts of the area.
Fun times ahead, as others have said.
You can see on the first image, the southern wave just out ahead of the northern stream wave. A slight difference in timing here could result in a phase, turning the trough negative giving us a true big dog. As is, a few frames later, you still get some light snow for some parts of the area.
Fun times ahead, as others have said.
Twister
Member
Wait what the He$$
Brick Tamland
Member
Bill Smith
Member
Epo, nao, mjo still no snow
Twister
Member
Hang on its 300+ hours away