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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

idk the last time i saw a stretch of weather so boring for so long *outside of summer. the most interesting things that have happened since helene are the fact that it was way cold for mid-oct right after and the backdoor front saturday night. two things that aren't really worth writing home about over a month
 
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jackendrickwx said:
idk the last time i saw a stretch of weather so boring for so long *outside of summer. the most interesting things that have happened since helene are the fact that it was way cold for mid-oct right after and the backdoor front saturday night. two things that aren't really worth writing home about over a month
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Hey, least it’s been super nice. Every single night this month has been amazing for a bonfire
 
Looking at models for the next fifteen days, I do not see a low temperature below freezing anywhere in Central North Carolina. It looks like that southeastern high-pressure ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. With the jet stream parked up north, above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are here to stay for a while.
 
weather bubba said:
Looking at models for the next fifteen days, I do not see a low temperature below freezing anywhere in Central North Carolina. It looks like that southeastern high-pressure ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon. With the jet stream parked up north, above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are here to stay for a while.
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Hello La Nina
 
jackendrickwx said:
idk the last time i saw a stretch of weather so boring for so long *outside of summer. the most interesting things that have happened since helene are the fact that it was way cold for mid-oct right after and the backdoor front saturday night. two things that aren't really worth writing home about over a month
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2001 and 2016 come to mind for long stretches of boring weather in this area. From September to close to Thanksgiving. November will be a lot like 2016 I'm afraid and fire season may become really bad in the Tenn and NC mountains. IF LaNina does form I look for this winter through the summer to be a lot like 1999. Little to no snow. a very hot dry summer, and a rough hurricane season.
 
i would say your next shot at ~something~ a bit more meaningful happening would be next weekend (~10 days out, i know, it'll change). we've got another backdoor front saturday which should get us within ~5F of climo high for like. a day or two. GEFS/EPS pretty different around then as of rn (more ridge-y on the eps, shocker). main difference is american camp brings a trough over top the ridge and really digs it down enough to get thru the SE (talking about the trough over WA/SE canada in this frame, not the one of TX/NM). that big ol low headed into the Aleutians may play a part if its amped like that, could kick off a wave train that helps get that WA/can trough to amp/dig. euro doesn't really have much of a trough there.

prolly too much anaylsis for the idea of a cold front beyond 7 days but hey, what else are we gonna forecast right now?
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It gets harder and harder to not get a freeze as you get deeper into the cold season. Even with a warm(er) pattern, all it takes is a continental sourced front and a calm/clear night to get down to freezing (...for late November onward). But it's possible. We'll just need the pattern and weather systems to align just right.
 
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