If the forecast verified, it would be replaced as well.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It appears the LLC is about to be exposed. Hopefully, we can slow its roll for a time.
EPS is less than ideal
HWRF is like a direct path into Tampa. Looks like dry air might not be an issue until landfall.
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro alot stronger
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
It seems Helene didnt cool the water down as much as i thought it might
Brent
Member
Yeah if this bombs out it's probably the doomsday Tampa hurricane 
severestorm
Member
I'm at the villages in Florida. Can't escape the hurricanes. 
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
There’s a place called the villages ?I'm at the villages in Florida. Can't escape the hurricanes.
severestorm
Member
Yup it's a 55+ community.
And we know how these systems in the Gulf have blown up quickly the last few years.
Triplephase93
Member
My mom’s Condo in Englewood Florida would be completely screwed with this track. It’s on the bay and a quarter mile from the gulf on manasota key. Just took had 2.5 feet of water inside from Helene. Hoping this thing moves south but that doesn’t look likely.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Indeed the last few model suites, including the 12z have shifted north, now w/ the model consensus over Tampa.
Explicitly forecasting a major into Tampa
Brent
Member
Let's hope the NHC is wrong like they were about Atlanta because yikes
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’m a little surprised the cone is so far north. Savannah is inside the cone !
“Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week”
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week”
Brent
Member
It's an average error at that range. That's all
GFS coming in ~6 hours slower. Maybe a bit south? Hard to tell
Woah hang on. Way north
Back to Taylor county?
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
It's a running joke elsewhere that everything now hits Perry
If that front coming in from the NW is a little slower, it probably would do just that.
Thats a good ~50+ miles north of 12z. Still a record surge event into Tampa/St. Pete no doubt, but it avoids the apocalypse 12z with the core passing directly over them.
Henry2326
Member
We've got 4 more days, maybe 5 if it continues to slow down. It's gonna wobble 50 miles either way every forecast. My opinion it will have greater north wobbles than south. But who knows....
Henry2326
Member
18z Hmon and Hwrf appear to be more aggressive than 12z and its only downloaded to Monday and Tuesday. 
Even Hafs-a and B are bombing out.
Even Hafs-a and B are bombing out.
Henry2326
Member
Hafs A and B.
Honestly, that is generally how things work. I thought the same would happen with Helene, but it didn’t.
Henry2326
Member
Yep, the reason NHC started the cone thing was for this very reason. The models just can't nail down landfall this far out. To many moving variables. In my opinion, if one does, it's sheer luck. So all we can do is look at the totality of the forecasts.
lizajane
Member
And prepare for anything and everything.
Henry2326
Member
You can't make this up...18z Hmon looks like Cedar Keys???
Halfway to Perry... much weaker, although bombed out on the way.
Shear maybe??
Henry2326
Member
I'm not sure I've seen an ensemble where every run is in the red.
Henry2326
Member
Looks like a shift north to me.
