I was thinking the same thing. Weird to see a system develop there and move that direction.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looks like either a direct hit on Tampa or the northern eyewall on Tampa. GFS shows a direct hit while both the Euro and it's AI cousin shows the northern eyewall hitting Tampa.
Brent
Member
PTC probably coming at 11. Milton is the next name
The worst-case scenario would be the southern eyewall hitting Tampa. Not to mention a track along the I-4 corridor.
BHS1975
Member
Even if it misses in either direction the surge will still be high coming from the west.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
A bit behind the eightball but they caught up.
Correction: TD 9.
RollTide18
Member
Could this be this generations Hurricane Lenny?
iGRXY
Member
Stronger the storm, the more north it’s going to track. Which is exactly what you see here. Seeing several tracks into the big bend on the ensembles is giving me PTSD00z and 06z are very similar.....
Even lower pressure to 949.
Hurricane on Monday morning.
Looks like about half the ensemble agrees with operational.
View attachment 152581
View attachment 152582
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One thing that really sticks out here is the stronger solutions are further to the north, with the mid-upper level flow being stronger/more southwesterly
Brent
Member
Disturbingly similar to pre Helene
BHS1975
Member
Getting it together already on the visible loop.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It's currently sitting over 86-degree water in a rather favorable environment. This looks nothing like the broad slop fest models had previously for a week portrayed.
Brent
Member
The system could become a major
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
Brent
Member
This is bad
Sctvman
Member
Henry2326
Member
12z Icon still south
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,659
- Reaction score
- 10,816
But creeping north
Henry2326
Member
Im worried about the angle it comes it. It could push into already devastated areas I land as well the already beaten coast.
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS.....slightly south from 6z but virtually unchanged at 946.
Yeah the 12z GFS would be a hit near Tampa at a 90’ angle. That area experienced a significant storm surge last week from Helene moving parallel to the coast.
12Z UK: between Naples and Ft Myers Wed (similar timing to GFS/Icon and much faster than CMC), which is N of 0Z’s S of Naples but is still way S of GFS’ just N of Tampa and a little S of Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte; remains furthest S of these 4; reminder: UK was furthest SE for Ian several days out and did best fwiw:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 95.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2024 0 21.9N 95.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.7N 94.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 06.10.2024 24 23.3N 94.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.8N 93.1W 1004 30
1200UTC 07.10.2024 48 21.9N 91.9W 1001 32
0000UTC 08.10.2024 60 22.3N 89.7W 998 30
1200UTC 08.10.2024 72 23.1N 87.4W 995 34
0000UTC 09.10.2024 84 24.5N 85.5W 993 38
1200UTC 09.10.2024 96 25.9N 82.8W 993 38
0000UTC 10.10.2024 108 27.9N 79.6W 994 52
1200UTC 10.10.2024 120 29.2N 75.9W 991 61
0000UTC 11.10.2024 132 29.5N 70.4W 995 50
1200UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.0N 64.5W 1003 43
0000UTC 12.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 95.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2024 0 21.9N 95.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.7N 94.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 06.10.2024 24 23.3N 94.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.8N 93.1W 1004 30
1200UTC 07.10.2024 48 21.9N 91.9W 1001 32
0000UTC 08.10.2024 60 22.3N 89.7W 998 30
1200UTC 08.10.2024 72 23.1N 87.4W 995 34
0000UTC 09.10.2024 84 24.5N 85.5W 993 38
1200UTC 09.10.2024 96 25.9N 82.8W 993 38
0000UTC 10.10.2024 108 27.9N 79.6W 994 52
1200UTC 10.10.2024 120 29.2N 75.9W 991 61
0000UTC 11.10.2024 132 29.5N 70.4W 995 50
1200UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.0N 64.5W 1003 43
0000UTC 12.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The models are in full on catch-up mode w/ former 92L, now TD 14 (& soon-to-be Milton) here.
I think the reason for that has to do w/ the northerly low-level barrier jet that's on the western side of the circulation adjacent to the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains. This northerly low-level barrier jet helps spin-up cyclonic relative vorticity over TD-14's circulation, hastening the tropical cyclogenesis process.
That feature is not exactly easy for NWP models to resolve (because the terrain there over the Sierra Madre is smoothed out & they have insufficient vertical resolution).
I think the reason for that has to do w/ the northerly low-level barrier jet that's on the western side of the circulation adjacent to the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains. This northerly low-level barrier jet helps spin-up cyclonic relative vorticity over TD-14's circulation, hastening the tropical cyclogenesis process.
That feature is not exactly easy for NWP models to resolve (because the terrain there over the Sierra Madre is smoothed out & they have insufficient vertical resolution).
Of concern as well is the forecast wind field is quite large.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn’t be shocked if model consensus nudges closer to Tampa here in a few cycles or so. The models are still playing catch up to organizational trends and a stronger storm is gonna get pulled further north by the more SWly flow aloft
Brent
Member
Yeah I have a bad feeling about Tampa. This could be their nightmare scenario
HWRF goes bonkers early.
Brent
Member
Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly
lexxnchloe
Member
Yeash… Definitely some similarities.
As of now I think a Tampa to just south of Orlando to cape canavral line.
HAFS B Twelve hours before land fall just N of Tampa. Jeez.
Seeing more of an NE movement through landfall. This puts SE Georgia at some risk too. Particularly the coast.
12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far (near GFS) with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)
Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC Fri
GFS/Euro just N of Tampa
Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte
UK between Ft Myers and Naples
Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC Fri
GFS/Euro just N of Tampa
Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte
UK between Ft Myers and Naples
Last edited:
If you are in FL I would definitely be prepared for hurricane in and around Tampa. Moving ENE. Possibly a Major at landfall too. Crazy how fast things can change in weather.
Brent
Member
Milton replaced Michael...