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Pattern October 2023 Thread

If you want Avg weather you also will get dry weather, that's from any season.
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Big spreads in the eps for the weekend before Halloween. Not sure I buy highs in the 40s but certainly looks like we temper back toward average after the warm up. Wouldn't be surprised to flirt with our first frost in NC Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday morning next week. Pretty decent N flow behind the departing low and high coming in should wedge in some dews in the low 30s
 
Itryatgolf said:
I agree. If it was 12z run, I would be intrigued because it's around that truncation of 240hrs. 06z is a little wonky outside 150hrs imo
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Well yeah I mean I would never believe frozen precip at that range anyway but I definitely think at least the coldest air of the season. Whether there's moisture or not when it matters we won't know til much closer. But I mean it's only October...
 
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023

NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-202000-
Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Person NC-Warren NC-
Wake NC-Orange NC-Granville NC-
310 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERSON...VANCE...
NORTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...GRANVILLE...NORTHWESTERN
WAKE...DURHAM...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Clarksville to 8 miles
northeast of Rougemont to 7 miles east of Hillsborough to near
Pittsboro. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Henderson, Oxford, Creedmoor,
Carrboro, Butner, and Kittrell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
 
southeast ridge has been trending stronger, but after is interesting, do we extend pacific jet to a area that drops the hammer for fall standards, or do we overextend the pacific jet and go from warm, quick cold, back to zonal warm. One thing is for sure, do to the strong -EPO, there’s gonna be a large reservoir of cold in Canada. Northern plains about to build snowpack A33CD696-20E1-4DFB-9437-91A840DA9318.png4FF4BFF3-1635-4B62-87E3-6249CE338F40.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
southeast ridge has been trending stronger, but after is interesting, do we extend pacific jet to a area that drops the hammer for fall standards, or do we overextend the pacific jet and go from warm, quick cold, back to zonal warm. One thing is for sure, do to the strong -EPO, there’s gonna be a large reservoir of cold in Canada. Northern plains about to build snowpack View attachment 137588View attachment 137589
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We will find out soon
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
southeast ridge has been trending stronger, but after is interesting, do we extend pacific jet to a area that drops the hammer for fall standards, or do we overextend the pacific jet and go from warm, quick cold, back to zonal warm. One thing is for sure, do to the strong -EPO, there’s gonna be a large reservoir of cold in Canada. Northern plains about to build snowpack View attachment 137588View attachment 137589
Click to expand...
Yeah but one thing we have learned , snowpack don’t mean squat to get cold down to the southeast …. I used think that it does .
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
The one thing about droughts is they usually don't just go away quietly. More often than not they usually break with some rope of high impact event. Whether it be severe thunderstorms, flooding, tropical system, or a sudden change to extreme cold. Something to keep in mind.
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It's possible out here this coming week with the hurricane remnants and the cold front and I've definitely seen it before
 
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