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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Well this thread went to Hades in a quick fire hurry.... Well personally I just pitched my tent on the ledge at least it will be a short walk to take the dive

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metwannabe said:
Well this thread went to Hades in a quick fire hurry.... Well personally I just pitched my tent on the ledge at least it will be a short walk to take the dive

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It’s not that bad is it? LOL!


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From MDA met this morning, optimism for cold Jan chances based on a -QBO trending more negative:

"QBO And Risk For –AO Blocking In January

The QBO is a measure of stratospheric winds, and it has been tied to Arctic blocking events in winter. In this discussion, we examine that Arctic connection and the current status of the signal to determine the atmospheric implications for January. The QBO remains firmly in its negative phase, with a value of –17.20 in November, and even more telling has been its negative trends over the past several months (August to November slope of –0.99). The tables above show the probabilities for the AO (Arctic Oscillation) in January based on past cases of the –QBO and its trend leading into winter (analog trends are determined by the August to December data). The data suggests that a –QBO which has trended further negative leading up to the winter season increases the probability for Arctic blocking per the –AO relative to that of the historical probabilities and those cases in which the –QBO was trending less negative (+Trend). The maps below are the analog composites for the –QBO and subset by trends, and it is notable the colder leans and clearer –AO picture in those years representative of what has occurred in late 2017. Despite this being a signal which could push January colder than our current 970 GWHDD forecast, it should be noted that these analogs are only QBO-based with no other consideration to other forcings like from sea surface temperatures. As such, the takeaway from this should be the elevated risk for –AO blocking in January, and that factor is given consideration in our forecast."
 
Its weird being in a position where i am not worried about getting snow the rest of the winter. Im so used to stressing out and hoping to just see a stray flurry by Jan or Feb. Having said that, i know how it feels to be on the other end and getting left out of all the snow fun like what happened in Feb 2015. Its not fun and i do hope that everyone north of here gets a good snow before the winter is over
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its weird being in a position where i am not worried about getting snow the rest of the winter. Im so used to stressing out and hoping to just see a stray flurry by Jan or Feb. Having said that, i know how it feels to be on the other end and getting left out of all the snow fun like what happened in Feb 2015. Its not fun and i do hope that everyone north of here gets a good snow before the winter is over
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And tough sheet for folks who happen to live south of you? ;)
 
GaWx said:
From MDA met this morning, optimism for cold Jan chances based on a -QBO trending more negative:

"QBO And Risk For –AO Blocking In January

The QBO is a measure of stratospheric winds, and it has been tied to Arctic blocking events in winter. In this discussion, we examine that Arctic connection and the current status of the signal to determine the atmospheric implications for January. The QBO remains firmly in its negative phase, with a value of –17.20 in November, and even more telling has been its negative trends over the past several months (August to November slope of –0.99). The tables above show the probabilities for the AO (Arctic Oscillation) in January based on past cases of the –QBO and its trend leading into winter (analog trends are determined by the August to December data). The data suggests that a –QBO which has trended further negative leading up to the winter season increases the probability for Arctic blocking per the –AO relative to that of the historical probabilities and those cases in which the –QBO was trending less negative (+Trend). The maps below are the analog composites for the –QBO and subset by trends, and it is notable the colder leans and clearer –AO picture in those years representative of what has occurred in late 2017. Despite this being a signal which could push January colder than our current 970 GWHDD forecast, it should be noted that these analogs are only QBO-based with no other consideration to other forcings like from sea surface temperatures. As such, the takeaway from this should be the elevated risk for –AO blocking in January, and that factor is given consideration in our forecast."
Click to expand...
I believe this signal will help to off-set the Nina climo and give us a fair chance of having a decent January.
 
Storm5 said:
That was close to a big system and huge shift towards one
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I thought for sure it had grabbed it at 72h. Still a much better run. Slightly better ridge out west this run. Now, all we need it to get that trough axis just a little farther west and it's game-on.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Its weird being in a position where i am not worried about getting snow the rest of the winter. Im so used to stressing out and hoping to just see a stray flurry by Jan or Feb. Having said that, i know how it feels to be on the other end and getting left out of all the snow fun like what happened in Feb 2015. Its not fun and i do hope that everyone north of here gets a good snow before the winter is over
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I believe there will be another window of opportunity this winter, it's just a matter of when.
 
And just like that we're close to something good again. See, changes from one day to the next.
 
So damn close
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This is a December thread, not January, and not even close to February. Yes the models are going to fluctuate and I believe more exciting times lies ahead. With that said, many on the forum has their Winter made with the last system. It seems as many get and keep wanting more. Hopefully there will be more chances, for those of us, that didn't get anything, like me. All we can ask is for an opportunity. I love Winter weather as much as anyone, but ice isn't something I look forward too. I want to be able to keep warmth in my home. The pattern still looks promising, but this is the South and our early Winter Severe Season hasn't came. It will. Let's get it over with no damage. Just hoping for the best. Let's bring in the new year with a board wide triple phase 6"+ Snow.
 
I'd expect the messy mix/ice to start showing up on modeling again, soon. +NAO, +PNA, -EPO.. Now the GEFS shifting to a warmer look.. oh boy, we bout' to have some silly modeling!
 
Well I was hoping and maybe it bodes well for future runs, but the darn SE ridge won yet again on the 12Z GFS.
 
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